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          ACC Blog

          ACC mailblog: BC's fortunes, Clemson's D and Mitch Trubisky's arm

          • David M. Hale
          Sep 2, 2016, 05:00 PM

          We finally have some football in the books, and lots more to come. Let's crack open the mailbag for a Kickoff Weekend edition ...

          Here's the good news: It can't get worse. Boston College will be better at quarterback simply by having a living, breathing person playing at the spot. The move of Jeff Smith to receiver gives the Eagles a real athlete on the perimeter that they haven't had in a while. The O-line should be better, too. The question is if the defense takes a step back that offsets the offensive progress. Losing Don Brown was big, but I've had other coaches around the league rave about Jim Reid, and he still has special players with which to work (including Connor Strachan, who could develop into an All-American).

          This time of year, we all tend to focus on returning skill players, but Pitt's biggest asset is its grunts in the trenches. Pitt has 99 career starts returning on the offensive line (not to mention a ridiculous number of good backs to run the ball), and the Panthers' D-line may be one of the major undervalued groups in the league. Ejuan Price is already a star and Dewayne Hendrix certainly has the potential to blossom into a force off the edge, too. Meanwhile Pat Narduzzi has raved about the progress of Shakir Soto (6-3, 295) and Tyrique Jarrett (6-3, 335) up the middle. Aside from quarterback, give me talent in the trenches over anything else to build a team around.

          Let it be known, Ben is an Eastern Carolina student and avowed "NC State hater," so his prediction may be a bit biased. I'm leaning toward 3-5 or 4-4 in conference, with the senior day showdown at home against Miami being the swing game.

          In fairness to Marquise Williams, his numbers against teams that won at least nine games were pretty solid. From 2013-15: 60 percent completions, 27 touchdowns, 11 turnovers and an adjusted QBR that matched Baker Mayfield's. But to your point, Mitch Trubisky is a bit more even-keeled than Williams, who often put a lot of pressure on himself on bigger stages (in his hometown of Charlotte, in particular). I'd bet Trubisky has a good game against Georgia, though much like in last year's opener, Elijah Hood should carry the offense.

          The definition of success there probably isn't about wins and losses but rather Justin Fuente establishing his culture and system. These things take time. The analogy with Frank Beamer was always to Bobby Bowden, and I think it can be extended to Fuente and Jimbo Fisher. Fisher won some games in his early years at Florida State, but it took time to really establish Florida State as a consistent threat -- despite folks outside the program hyping the Seminoles consistently. The ceiling for Fuente this year may be 10 wins, but even if the Hokies hit that total, there will still be work to be done by year's end.

          My vote goes to Wake Forest, which has a surprisingly stellar press box setup (food included). I'm quite excited to test out the new digs at Duke this year though.

          Florida State has, arguably, the best secondary in the country, so I wouldn't anticipate routine struggles. But the key will be containing Chad Kelly and maintaining coverage for an extended period. He picked up 13 first downs on third- or fourth-down scrambles last year, and he was deadly as a passer outside the pocket. He's exceptional at keeping plays alive, as evidenced in the win over Alabama last year when the Crimson Tide defense appeared to have him wrapped up again and again only to get burned downfield. A few of those big plays could be the difference in this game, even if overall the secondary plays well.

          Syracuse actually scored a respectable 27.3 points per game last year overall, good for 77th -- or middle of the pack -- nationally. Dino Babers' Bowling Green team, on the other hand, racked up 42.2 points per game, good for sixth overall. I'd expect this year's Orange to be closer to last year's average than Bowling Green's mark, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 32 to 33 points per game would be a nice step and would've ranked fourth in the ACC a year ago.

          If I hadn't been down this road with the ACC before -- too many times -- I'd be picking the league to go 3-0 against the SEC this week. I think the ACC has the better overall team in all three games. Of course, we've seen this story play out before when it seems like the ACC is on the precipice of national respect, only to flush it away with an ugly loss (see: UNC vs. South Carolina last season). Auburn may give Clemson a game early, but I'm expecting Deshaun Watson and Co. to pull away in the second half and win by at least 10.

          Sorry to burst your bubble, but game times for the first three weeks are set in stone. And I wouldn't hold out much hope on ESPN's College GameDay. Week 3's slate is better than Week 1's: Oregon-Nebraska, Ohio State-Oklahoma, Alabama-Ole Miss, Michigan State-Notre Dame and USC-Stanford are all probably more likely options. Even if we're looking at noon ACC games, I'd love to see the show come to Appalachian State for the Miami game -- by far the biggest game ever on campus there.

          The "going against the best offense" is possibly a bit overblown. Most teams don't do a lot of good-on-good in practice after the season begins, and most teams don't tackle at all once the season starts. I think the two big areas of concern for Clemson's defense are at end and corner. Mackensie Alexander and Shaq Lawson weren't just veteran starters. They were legitimate playmakers. It's tough to replace their contribution. We saw in the national championship game what the D looked like when both players were injured. Clelin Ferrell and Mark Fields will be the two guys to watch early. They've got big shoes to fill.