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Atlanta Falcons
Last Season: 8-8
Second in NFC South
Preseason power ranking: 22
The Falcons have to win the NFC South to make the playoffs. That being said, the three-time division champion Panthers would have to experience a dramatic decline or lose a couple of key players to significant injuries for the Falcons to be in contention. Even if a Panthers Super Bowl hangover occurs, the Falcons would have to boast one of the NFL's top scoring offenses and average close to 30 points per game to make the postseason. Quarterback Matt Ryan firmly believes that's possible with weapons such as Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman at his disposal. At the same time, you have to score touchdowns in the red zone to make that happen, and Ryan himself had four red-zone interceptions a year ago. The defense, even with the additions of rookies Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell, still isn't good enough to slow down opponents, so the best chance the Falcons have is to outscore them. The five teams that averaged 26.4 points or better a year ago -- Carolina, Arizona, New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle -- all made the playoffs.
The schedule. The Falcons are tied with the 49ers for the toughest strength of schedule this season, with their 2016 opponents posting a .555 winning percentage last season. Facing the Buccaneers at home in the season opener might be the Falcons' best chance for a win in the first six games. They have road games at New Orleans and Oakland, a home matchup with Super Bowl runner-up Carolina and then a brutal road back-to-back against Super Bowl champion Denver and Seattle to start the season. Yes, the Falcons started 5-0 last season, but facing all of the NFC East and the Houston Texans was far from intimidating. This year's Week 3 game against the rival Saints in New Orleans will have a little added juice for the home team with the 10th anniversary recognition of the Saints' return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. The Falcons face six of the top-10 defenses from a year ago in the Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals, Panthers, Chiefs and Buccaneers.
Falcons' percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 11 vs. Tampa Bay: 61.0
Sept. 18 @ Oakland: 31.1
Sept. 26 @ New Orleans: 41.3
Oct. 2 vs. Carolina: 42.0
Oct. 9 @ Denver: 28.3
Oct. 16 @ Seattle: 19.4
Oct. 23 vs. San Diego: 61.4
Oct. 30 vs. Green Bay: 42.9
Nov. 3 @ Tampa Bay: 42.5
Nov. 13 @ Philadelphia: 46.6
Nov. 27 vs. Arizona: 51.4
Dec. 4 vs. Kansas City: 45.3
Dec. 11 @ Los Angeles: 37.6
Dec. 18 vs. San Francisco: 69.5
Dec. 24 @ Carolina: 27.8
Jan. 1 vs. New Orleans: 60.5
Vaughn McClure’s game-by-game predictions
Ryan doesn’t miss games, but something seems amiss in Atlanta. Last year’s Falcons had the league’s top receiver and its seventh-leading rusher, and somehow Ryan came up with only 21 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. Matt Schaub waits in the wings -- Dan Graziano
If Pro Bowl running back Freeman is as productive as he was last season, then the Falcons will have a much better chance at success. Freeman tied for the league lead with 14 total touchdowns last season. He enjoyed a stretch of nine rushing touchdowns over a five-game stretch, including a pair of three-touchdown games. And Freeman stays motivated by always emphasizing what he can do better, not what he's already accomplished. The addition of three-time Pro Bowl center Alex Mack should open more holes for Freeman in the run game. Plus, Freeman is an asset in the passing game after finishing second to Jones with 73 receptions last season.
There are two prime candidates for the Falcons: wide receiver Mohamed Sanu and running back Tevin Coleman. Sanu gets the edge because of uncertainty over Coleman's role. Sanu was signed to be the No. 2 wide receiver behind Julio Jones. Since Jones always is expected to draw added attention, it could open up opportunities for Sanu. And Sanu is a big, physical receiver who prides himself on winning his one-on-one matchups. Sanu didn't have a touchdown with the Cincinnati Bengals last season, but he had five when he caught a career-high five touchdowns in 2014.
The relationship between Ryan and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, along with the production of the pass rush, will be the two key factors that determine whether the Falcons experience their first winning season since 2012. Ryan contends he is comfortable in Year 2 of Shanahan's scheme, although his performance during the preseason would say otherwise. Ryan has to be willing to go through his progressions or get rid of the ball out of bounds if the play isn't there. And he knows he has to make better decisions in the red zone. As for the pass rush, the addition of seven-time Pro Bowler Dwight Freeney could make a difference, but Freeney can't do it alone. Former No. 8 pick Vic Beasley Jr. needs to get his mind right and play up to his potential. Nose tackle Grady Jarrett could be the wild card in the equation as an interior rusher. Whatever the case, the Falcons can't duplicate last year's league-low 19-sack effort and expect to be competitive.