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Browns' dim playoff chances could depend on another tie

The Cleveland Browns opened their season with an improbable tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Now they might have to hope for an even more improbable tie in the season finale between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans to keep their minute playoff hopes alive.

Sunday’s results around the league brought several factors together, most significantly when the Steelers hung on to beat the New England Patriots. The Steelers' win ended the Browns' chance to win the AFC North. The best the Browns can do is match the Steelers at 8-7-1, but Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker because it went 1-0-1 against the Browns this season.

The remote chance of the Browns securing the second wild-card spot involved calculations bordering on quantum physics and go like this:

  • The Browns have to beat Cincinnati and the Ravens in the final two games.

  • Tennessee has to lose to Washington and Indianapolis has to lose to the Giants next weekend.

  • Miami has to lose one of its final two games, and Baltimore has to lose both; both would finish 8-8.

  • Tennessee and Indianapolis would then have to play to a season-ending tie in Week 17.

In this scenario, the Colts, Browns and Titans would finish 8-7-1. Indianapolis' 1-0-1 record against Tennessee would knock out the Titans. The Browns' better record against common opponents would give the Browns the edge over the Colts.

The likelihood of this happening: ESPN Analytics puts the Browns' playoff chances at 1.0 percent, or 1-in-100.

Even at that low likelihood, the home finale next Sunday against Cincinnati is meaningful. The Browns open as a seven-point favorite. The last time the Browns were that big a favorite was in Week 13 of the 2013 season against Jacksonville, a game the Browns lost 32-28 with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.

The initial point spread is an indicator of how far the Browns have come from their 2-6-1 start.

They have won 4 of 5 and for the first time since 2007 could say they were in the playoff discussion in December.

The likelihood is infinitesimal that it happens, but that will not diminish the turnaround for a team that did not win a game in 2017. Nor does it diminish what can be ahead in 2019.

Even if the playoff hopes are hanging on an invisible thread.

"If God blesses us, he blesses us," safety Jabrill Peppers told reporters after the win in Denver. "But if not, [these are] good stepping stones for next year."