Michael DiRocco, ESPN Staff Writer 5y

Jaguars can't afford to wait past first round to find next QB

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Draft a franchise quarterback.

Pretty straightforward idea. Have a high draft pick. Use it on a quarterback. In a year or so, begin run of many winning seasons, playoff appearances and -- hopefully -- a Super Bowl victory.

That's the expectation for the Jacksonville Jaguars this spring. They've decided to move on from Blake Bortles, and even if they add a veteran such as Joe Flacco or Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency to be a bridge player and mentor, they have to draft a franchise quarterback.

Except ... there's a better-than-good chance that the Jaguars will miss on whichever quarterback they choose. That's not a shot at executive vice president Tom Coughlin and general manager Dave Caldwell -- or whoever is running the organization in April -- it's just the numbers of the success rate.

There's nothing written anywhere that defines a franchise quarterback, but a good starting point is a player who makes multiple Pro Bowls and multiple playoff appearances and has only played for one team. The thought on that last standard is that no team will part ways with a franchise quarterback until close to the end of his career.

Only nine quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2015 match that criteria: Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. Four other players also made multiple Pro Bowls and multiple playoff appearances, but they've done it for more than one team: Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick and Drew Brees. Tony Romo also fits that criteria, but he was an undrafted free agent.

So not counting Romo, only 13 of the 195 quarterbacks -- just 6.7 percent -- drafted from 2000 to 2015 made multiple Pro Bowls and multiple playoff appearances. Only seven of the 42 quarterbacks -- 14 percent -- drafted in the first round over that same span qualify: Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan, Newton and Luck.

Add it all up and it's incredibly hard to find that "franchise" quarterback, though the chances are much better if a team drafts one in the first round.

"At the end of the day, it's a percentages game, and the odds tell you, especially at this position, if you're going to get a 10-year starter, a quarterback that will give you a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl, it's very likely to be in the first round," ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. "... There's very few [quarterbacks] that are transcendent talents that regardless of supporting cast, regardless of the coaching staff, are going to have success.

"Those are few and far between."

There might not be one in the 2019 draft, either. Oregon's Justin Herbert and Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins are widely considered the top two quarterbacks in this class -- except neither has announced if he will be leaving school early. And many believe Herbert will return for his senior season. Even if they both come out, the quarterback class isn't regarded as a good one: McShay said he ranks Herbert and Haskins below most of the first-round quarterbacks taken from 2016 to 2018.

The timing of need and talent not matching isn't anything new for the Jaguars. They've been in that situation multiple times throughout their history.

Mark Brunell was still a viable starter in 2002 (he threw for 2,788 yards with 17 TDs and seven interceptions) and he and the team were working on a new contract in spring 2003, before negotiations stalled. But new GM Shack Harris wanted his own guy, and the Jaguars drafted Byron Leftwich seventh overall.

Had they waited another year, the Jaguars could have taken Ben Roethlisberger with the ninth pick in 2004. He went two picks later to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Leftwich threw 24 touchdown passes and 26 interceptions in his first two seasons, and the team decided to get him some help by drafting Matt Jones 21st overall. He was a quarterback at Arkansas, but the Jaguars wanted him as a receiver.

The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011, so they weren't thinking quarterback at all in 2012, when they took receiver Justin Blackmon fifth overall -- he had alcohol and drug problems and has been out of the league since 2013 -- and then took punter Bryan Anger in the third round. Five picks later, the Seattle Seahawks selected Wilson.

Two years ago, the Jaguars had the fourth pick. Even though Bortles was coming off a disastrous season, newly hired Coughlin went with running back Leonard Fournette over quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.

The Jaguars have spent the past 15 seasons trying to find a replacement for Brunell and have gone through Leftwich, David Garrard, Gabbert and now Bortles. They've had just three playoff appearances over that stretch.

As bad as that seems, it's still better than what the Miami Dolphins have gone through in trying to replace Dan Marino. He retired following the 1999 season -- a 62-7 playoff loss in Jacksonville was his final game -- and since then, the Dolphins have had 14 quarterbacks start 10 or more games. They've tried free agency -- Chad Pennington, Gus Frerotte, Dan McGwire, Matt Moore are just a few -- but have drafted only five quarterbacks since 1999.

The Fins have drafted only one in the first round, though: Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill has been a solid player. He ranks third in franchise history behind Marino and Bob Griese in passing yards (20,141) and touchdown passes (122) and has a better completion percentage (62.8) and interception percentage (2.5) than either.

However, Tannehill also has missed 25 games from 2016 through this season because of injuries, has managed just one playoff appearance since being drafted eighth overall in 2012 and is 42-44 as a starter. He is playing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the lineup for five games earlier this year, and there is no guarantee he’ll be back in Miami in 2019, even though he carries a $13.4 million dead cap hit if the Dolphins release him before June 1.

If that happens, the Dolphins will join the Jaguars and New York Giants as teams in search of the NFL’s next franchise quarterback.

Good luck.

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