The uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers' playing status caused some confusion at sportsbooks, and the way each book has reacted to the Green Bay Packers' next game reveals the differing philosophies they have about how to handle such situations.
As of Monday night, most U.S. and offshore books are not offering a point spread for Sunday's game between the Packers and New York Jets. On Sunday night, Green Bay opened as a consensus 3-point road favorite, but bets began to trickle in on the home underdog. By Monday morning, the Jets were favored by 2.5 points.
"The thing about Rodgers is that he's probably the single most impactful player to the number, even though he's not 100 percent [healthy]," Gaughan Gaming sportsbook director Vinny Magliulo told ESPN. Yet Gaughan Gaming-affiliated South Point is still offering a line on the game, which currently sits at pick'em -- and they're one of the only books in the world offering a line.
"People are here. They want to bet," Magliulo said. "If we feel we have the same information as everyone else, we're giving the public a chance to decide."
Caesars (which also has the line at a pick'em) also kept the game on the board. William Hill, which had a line at Jets -1 as of Monday morning, took the game down from the board around noon.
The more common approach is to avoid posting odds for a game with such ambiguity. Most outfits, such as the SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas, are adopting a patience approach. "When practice comes on Wednesday and Rodgers isn't out there, then you can put two and two together," SuperBook head NFL oddsmaker Ed Salmons told ESPN.
Bookmakers expect this kind of circus for Week 17, when eliminated teams and playoff teams with nothing left to gain bench players and lean toward caution with injured players. But eyebrows were raised a week earlier than usual by a highly regarded bettor once the Packers were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Chicago Bears.
"It's a player we respect, so when he bets something, we look at his bet and then just try to see where he's coming from," Salmons said. "Then a light bulb goes on, and then we say, 'Maybe he won't play.'"
Salmons shared that this particular bettor beat nearly every line movement in the NFL preseason, which relies heavily on information and motivation. The race for an edge is a common practice throughout the sports calendar, but it's particularly notable when a bettor is able to beat the lines in an age when information spreads so quickly and freely.
"Years ago, we didn't have all these tools, and you had no idea. Now you have all these tools, so it's great," Salmons said.
"Social media's become a way to keep track of things," Magliulo said. "You have really credible sources out there. We have people monitoring it all the time. It's a battle for information. We get it."