FCS football preview: Quarterfinals feature some heavyweight matchups

If you've watched enough NCAA basketball tournaments through the years, you know there are basically two types. Some have chaotic early rounds and memorable upsets, which are wonderful but can create later-round mismatches. Others feature early-round chalk, with a little less chaos, and some titanic matches later on.

We've seen some fun college football games in the first two rounds of 2021's FCS playoffs. The first round featured three down-to-the-wire classics, and the second round featured a late, wild comeback by East Tennessee State over Kennesaw State, a failed late comeback attempt by Sacramento State against South Dakota State, and upstarts Incarnate Word and Holy Cross taking heavyweights Sam Houston and Villanova, respectively, down to the wire.

Entertainment value has been high, but upsets have been minimal. Bring on the titanic later-round matches.

This week's quarterfinal pairings:

• No. 8 Montana State at No. 1 Sam Houston (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

• South Dakota State at No. 5 Villanova (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

• No. 6 Montana at No. 3 James Madison (Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

• No. 7 East Tennessee State at No. 2 North Dakota State (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN)

Let's break them down in chronological order.

Montana at James Madison

The round of 16 featured a pair of nearly identical games pitting all-offense, minimal-defense teams against more well-rounded heavyweights. In one, Montana donned its track shoes and outlasted prolific Eastern Washington 57-41 in Missoula. The Grizzlies spotted the Eagles a 21-10 lead and then destroyed them with a 40-7 run.

  In the other such game, James Madison spotted Cole Kelley and the vaunted Southeastern Louisiana attack an early 10-7 advantage, then scored 52 of the next 55 points and rolled 59-20. Kelley threw for 397 yards on 50 passes, but JMU's Cole Johnson needed only 22 throws and 12 completions to gain 321 yards with five touchdowns. Four Dukes caught at least one pass of 30-plus yards.

Both face stiffer competition on Friday night. JMU is back up to second in my FCS SP+ ratings. (Full FCS ratings, along with Division II and Division III ratings, are housed here.) The Dukes might be the most well-rounded team in the country -- they placed four offensive players, four defensive players and two special teams players on the All-CAA first  or second team, and they are one of only two teams (with SDSU) that rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive SP+. Whatever their opponent's weaknesses are, they have a corresponding strength to exploit it.

Despite last week's 57-point output, Montana's weaknesses primarily reside on offense. The Grizzlies rank 12th in defensive SP+ but 42nd on offense, and even during last week's romp, three of their touchdowns came from drives that began inside the EWU 20, and a fourth came on a pick-six. They are explosive, as evidenced by Malik Flowers' 75-yard touchdown run and two Camron Humphrey-to-Samuel Akem scores from 44 and 30 yards out, but this isn't the most consistent offense JMU has faced.

It might be the best team the Dukes have seen, though. The Montana defense allows just a 56% completion rate and has picked off 18 passes, and it bears mentioning that, for as good as JMU has been this year, the only team the Dukes have played that ranks higher than 15th in SP+ -- Villanova -- beat them 28-27 in Harrisonburg, Virginia.

SP+ projection: JMU 30.2, Montana 20.0
Caesars projection: JMU 26.3, Montana 19.3 (JMU -7, over/under 45.5)

Both SP+ and the books give the Dukes an edge, but if the Grizzlies keep the score down and the rock-fight intensity high, they'll have a shot.

East Tennessee State at North Dakota State

Three of the four quarterfinals have spreads of a touchdown or less. This is the other one. Coach Randy Sanders' ETSU Bucs won the Southern Conference thanks to the combination of running backs Quay Holmes and Jacob Saylors (2,845 combined rushing and receiving yards, 31 touchdowns), do-everything linebackers Donovan Manuel and Jared Folks (205 combined tackles, 14 for loss) and, frankly, a pretty down year for the SoCon, which didn't produce a team that ranks higher than 23rd in SP+.

  The Bucs won their first playoff game in 25 years last weekend with a shocking comeback: Down 31-17 to Kennesaw State with 90 seconds left, they scored, recovered an onside kick, scored again and nailed the winning 2-point conversion, all within 53 seconds. This weekend, their season will likely end the way many solid seasons have through the years: with a loss in Fargo.

Since a 27-19 loss to South Dakota State on Nov. 6, NDSU has switched into take-no-prisoners mode, beating Youngstown State and playoff teams South Dakota and Southern Illinois by an average of 46-16. A meat grinder of a run game averaged 382 yards and scored 16 touchdowns in the three games, and six Bison runners (including quarterbacks Cam Miller and Quincy Patterson) gained at least 98 yards each.

Even if ETSU can limit the Bison run game, the Bucs will still have to score at some points. That's generally pretty hard to do against an NDSU defense that ranks third in defensive SP+. It's easier to run on NDSU than throw -- which is exactly what ETSU will try to do -- but nothing's really easy.

SP+ projection: NDSU 33.0, ETSU 13.6
Caesars projection: NDSU 36.5, ETSU 12.0 (NDSU -24.5, over/under 48.5)

ETSU reaching the semifinals would be an absolute shock, but hey, we've been shocked before, right? (It just usually doesn't happen when NDSU is involved.)

South Dakota State at Villanova

SDSU missed out on a seed thanks to tight losses to three playoff teams, but the Jackrabbits surprised no one by beating Big Sky champ Sacramento State last week in Sacramento, California. Isaiah Davis and Pierre Strong Jr. combined for 181 yards and three first-half touchdowns to stake SDSU to a 24-3 lead, and while things got awkward late, the Jacks converted a late fourth-and-1 in funny fashion -- fake a freeze play, fake quarterback Chris Oladokun getting mad and yelling at the sideline, then a direct snap to Davis for a 2-yard plunge -- to lock up a 24-19 win.

  Now they go to the other side of the country to face a Villanova team that also survived an awkward finish. I called the 10-2 Wildcats the field's main wild cards in last week's FCS preview -- capable of both beating JMU on the road and laying a home egg and losing to William & Mary by two touchdowns -- and they somewhat proved both their upside and downside in their 21-16 win over Holy Cross. They eased to a comfortable 14-0 halftime lead thanks to strong defense and two Justin Covington touchdown runs, and when Holy Cross responded with 10 third-quarter points, Villanova quickly bumped the lead back to 21-10. The Wildcats couldn't put the game away, however, and the Crusaders got a chance to take a late lead before stalling out in Villanova territory.

Quarterback Daniel Smith is primarily what makes Villanova a wild card. In a three-game span against Richmond, Penn State and James Madison this season, he completed 62% of his passes with a 144.2 rating, solid against that competition. In his past three games, he has completed a ghastly 42% with a 108.4 passer rating. The Wildcats have explosive receiving weapons in Rayjoun Pringle, Jaaron Hayek and Dez Boykin, but consistency will be of utmost importance against a relentlessly physical SDSU team. Strong and Davis give the Jacks a better running back duo than most FBS teams have -- Davis returned from injury recently and has rushed for 325 yards in the past two games, while Strong has 1,575 yards for the season -- and the defense is a TFLs and turnovers machine.

SP+ projection: SDSU 29.0, Villanova 25.8
Caesars projection: SDSU 28.3, Villanova 21.3 (SDSU -7, over/under 49.5)

Daniel Smith is capable of some of the wildest stuff you've ever seen, but Villanova probably won't advance without a couple of Smith magic acts.

Montana State at Sam Houston

The run continues for Sam Houston. K.C. Keeler's Bearkats are 21-0 over the past 9½ months -- they went 10-0 last spring to win the 2020-21 national title, and a narrow and thrilling 49-42 win over Incarnate Word last weekend moved them to 11-0 this fall. They led by 17 in the second quarter, but Cameron Ward and the unabating UIW offense drove them into a 35-34 lead early in the fourth. SHSU responded with a six-minute, 70-yard touchdown drive to take the lead back, and when UIW tied the game in two plays, the Kats did it all over again: 12 plays, 75 yards, 5:43 of possession and a game-winning touchdown from quarterback Eric Schmid with 2:07 left.

  Incarnate Word drove to the Sam Houston 4 in the closing seconds, but just as they did in last spring's playoffs, the Bearkats made the plays they had to make to advance.

SHSU has won five straight playoff games going back to the spring, and none have been by more than seven points. In theory, the magic eventually has to run out, right? Maybe?

Montana State coach Brent Vigen has been around some playoff magic himself. A longtime Craig Bohl acolyte, he was offensive coordinator for the first three of North Dakota State's national titles (2011-13), then served the same role for Bohl at Wyoming until 2021. When MSU's Jeff Choate left for a role at Texas after leading the Bobcats to the FCS semis in 2019, Vigen faced a high bar. He's clearing it so far. Montana State is 10-2 with losses only to Bohl at Wyoming (19-16 in September) and rival Montana. It allows just 12.7 points per game, and it completely shut down UT-Martin 26-7 a week ago. The Skyhawks gained 178 total yards and scored only on a fumble return. MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott and running back Isaiah Ifanse combined to rush for 356 yards and three scores, and the Bobcats cruised.

The MSU offense trailed off late in the season -- the Bobcats averaged 42 points per game in their first five FCS contests but have managed only 20 per game since. They're still winning, however, because the defense is that ridiculous.

SP+ projection: SHSU 27.1, MSU 20.4.
Caesars projection: SHSU 27.3, MSU 21.3 (SHSU -6, over/under 48.5).

Sam Houston has proved capable of winning either track meets or rock fights, and the Kats' recent history suggests both that (a) this will go down to the wire and (b) SHSU could have the edge when it does.

Updated title odds

Each week, I've been using my SP+ ratings to project title odds for each team remaining in the field. Let's continue that.

8. East Tennessee State: 1%. Still only 27th in SP+, the Bucs are the longest of long shots at this point.