<
        >

          Let's start over with a September reality check

          • Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior WriterSep 19, 2016, 02:23 AM
            Close
            • Senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com
            • 2-time Sports Emmy winner
            • 2010, 2014 NMPA Writer of the Year
            Follow on X

          We've all done it, right?

          You're playing your favorite video game, you're totally smoking it ... and then you aren't. The opponent starts running through you on Madden. The aliens start overrunning you in Doom. The ghosts eat Ms. Pac-Man before she even gets to the pretzel (sorry, I had to include one my generation would understand).

          The fact is, it ain't going so well. So, when no one else is looking, what do you do? You hit the reset button and start over.

          As I write this I am sitting at a desk, and that desk is covered in preseason college football magazines and stacks of materials collected from various conference media days, including preseason poll results and can't-miss watch lists for postseason awards ranging from kickers to the best all-around player in the land.

          And ... well ... yeah, it's all pretty much wrong. So we know what to do here, right? We're gonna hit the reset button. We're gonna call the college football IT office and ask to have our hard drives rebooted. We'll let you customize your own do-over based on what you missed the worst, but here's a starter kit to get you going: five August assumptions to forget and what you should replace them with.

          August Assumption No. 1: Baker Mayfield is America's most dynamic quarterback

          Replacement Reality: Lamar Jackson

          Remember those preseason magazines I was telling you about? Well, three of them have Mayfield on the cover, including our ESPN The Magazine college football preview. None of them featured Jackson. If those editions were sent to the printer now, that inventory would be the total opposite. Now Oklahoma is 1-2, and Mayfield was bafflingly bad at times against both Houston and Ohio State on a national stage. Meanwhile, those of us who discounted Jackson's insane numbers against Charlotte and Syracuse (yes, us, I preached that all last week) were silenced by a butt whipping of historic proportions on Saturday. His offense scored 63 points, the most ever surrendered by Florida State. He personally accounted for five touchdowns. According to research by ESPN Stats & Information, the only players to run over the Seminoles like that were Marcus Mariota in 2014 and Bo Jackson in 1985. Their teams each scored 59 points, and both won the Heisman that season. ESPN business reporter Darren Rovell says that, back in March, Jackson opened at 100-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy. On Sunday morning he was down to 6-5.

          August Assumption No. 2: The Pac-12 will be the Power 5 leftover come playoff time

          Replacement Reality: Big 12

          None of us should be ashamed here. Between Baylor, TCU, a possibly resurgent Texas and the team in crimson we just discussed, this felt like a no-brainer. In fact, the numbers-mashers in the ESPN Stats & Info Dome of Math backed up our collective hunch. Prior to the season, the mysteriously accurate Football Power Index formula ranked the Big 12 as the Power 5 conference with the lowest chance of having a two-loss champion (36 percent) and the Pac-12 as having the best chance (82 percent). The FPI Jedi masters are always quick to remind us that it was not designed to predict the playoff field, but the format's short history says two losses won't earn an invite. Everyone in the Big 12 except for Baylor and West Virginia already has at least one loss, and we're only three weeks in with only one conference game played (TCU 41, Iowa State 20).

          August Assumption No. 3: Leonard Fournette is the best running back, and it isn't close

          Replacement Reality: Donnel Pumphrey

          Don't misunderstand here. Fournette is still really good. He racked up 147 yards, two TDs and the year's wickedest stiff-arm against Mississippi State. Over in the SEC East, Nick Chubb isn't bad, either. But San Diego State's Pumphrey is posting otherworldly numbers every week. For those of us old enough to get my earlier Ms. Pac-Man reference, it's crazy how much he reminds us of another SDSU legend, Marshall Faulk. In Week 2 he broke Faulk's school career rushing record. On Saturday at Northern Illinois he broke Faulk's all-purpose yardage mark, running for 220 yards on 23 carries. That gives him 4,871 for his career, leapfrogging Marcus Allen and Thurman Thomas as he jumped from 39th to 29th on the NCAA all-time rushing list. And he also added three TDs, breaking the Mountain West record for career rushing touchdowns at 52. And he now has an NCAA-leading 599 rushing yards on the season with an average of 8.2 yards per carry. And, oh yeah, the Aztecs have now won 13 games in a row, trailing only Alabama's 15 straight. And he seems to be totally digging being the face of the program -- just ask lifelong super-fan Tom Ables, who attended his 773rd Aztecs game on Saturday.

          August Assumption No. 4: The Game will decide the Big Ten

          Replacement Reality: Michigan State ... and Nebraska ... and Wisconsin

          Last season I spent all season defending my consistent belief in Michigan State, continually subjected to much mocking on national television from my ESPNU coworkers. That's why, as their game-winning kick sailed through the uprights against Ohio State I group texted them an all-caps "SPARTA!!!!" But even I entered 2016 preaching that Mark Dantonio finally had too much rebuilding to overcome. Then his rebuilding project dismantled Notre Dame. Meanwhile, the Huskers finally came through in a big home game, knocking off Oregon to serve notice, much as Dantonio did last September. And while Wisconsin labored against Georgia State, the images of their LSU pounding are still fresh. Ohio State plays all three during the season's second half, the Badgers and Spartans on the road. Michigan sees two of the three, including a trip to East Lansing, and could end up seeing the Huskers in the conference title game.

          August Assumption No. 5: Alabama will overcome the usual questions and be really good once again

          Replacement Reality: Alabama has overcome the usual questions and is really good again

          OK, enough with the beating ourselves up. We all pretty much nailed that one didn't we?

          Now that we've rebooted, or perhaps as we sit and wait on the progress bar to tell us that the reboot is complete, let's get on with Flipping The Field.

          From the ridonculous stats department: Check out the stat line for Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, keeping in mind he's officially listed as a linebacker: 9 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, 2 carries for 24 yards, a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 55-yard kickoff return and 204 all-purpose yards. He also ran over a Colorado sideline staffer for good measure. Not surprisingly, he was named the Walter Camp Player of the Week. Actually, he was co-POTW. Who could possible match that? Oklahoma State wide receiver James Washington hauled in 296 yards in catches that included frontier territory-sized chunks of 91 (on the first play of the game), 43, 50 and 29 yards.

          "We're going streaking!" Louisville became the first ACC school to score 60-plus points in three consecutive games. North Dakota State is now 6-0 against FBS schools since 2010. Over that time those schools have paid the Bison $2.175 million to beat them, including the $500,000 check that Iowa cut NDSU on Saturday. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly tied Eli Manning's school record for consecutive games with a passing TD, reaching 16 straight. As mentioned, Wisconsin struggled with Georgia State but still notched its 37th consecutive nonconference home win, the second longest such streak behind LSU (46). Speaking of struggling, Tennessee slogged around against Ohio but won its ninth in a row, the third longest winning streak behind the aforementioned Tide and Aztecs. Urban Meyer still hasn't lost a true road game as head coach of the Buckeyes (19-0). Washington has now scored 40-plus points in six straight games, the longest active FBS streak.

          "Get in the car, Frank ..." Vanderbilt's post-World War II losing streak to Georgia Tech continues. From their first meeting in 1892 through 1941, the Commodores led the series 15-8-2. Since Europe was liberated they are 0-12-1. Auburn has now lost six consecutive SEC games at home. Mississippi State's loss to LSU was the Bulldogs' eighth straight defeat to an AP ranked team, the second longest such streak for an SEC school behind only Vanderbilt (nine).

          Why schedule South Carolina State? Some might say the reason a program like Clemson, flush with cash, would host an FCS program like the Bulldogs, representatives of a school that essentially declared bankruptcy two years ago, was simply to ensure an easy pre-ACC calendar win. When I asked Clemson administrators about that over the summer, I was given an admirable response about helping another in-state school. For the fans in attendance at Saturday's game, which was shortened at 59-0 as a mercy move, it was worth going just to see one of the greatest marching bands in the land.

          Tommy West coach's news conference of the week: Brian Kelly, Notre Dame. On Sunday morning after the Irish's stunning loss to Michigan State, Kelly had to make a clarification. Yes, his Twitter account had "liked" a post that echoed the cries of much of the ND fan base, calling for the dismissal of defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder, whom he was seen expressing some very loud displeasure toward on the sideline. Kelly explained to ESPN.com colleague Matt Fortuna that "a number of people" manage his social media accounts and a staffer inadvertently hit the "like." He also said he still had confidence in his DC: "Oh absolutely, without question. That's not even part of the conversation."

          Because ... SHAQ. He celebrated his induction into the Basketball Hall of Fame by returning to LSU on Saturday night and did a little lifting.

          Danny Ford scientific rocket quote of the week: Nick Saban. After their shootout with Ole Miss, the Alabama head coach said of the Tide: "We got coaches getting IVs and players getting IVs. But the old fellow doesn't need an IV, because they don't make 'em like they used to." (Yeah, I know, he seems to be in this spot a lot, but he's also a good quote.)

          Battle at Bristol, part deux. When Bristol Motor Speedway booked Virginia Tech and Tennessee for the racetrack's inaugural college football game, they also made a second cool move. Track officials reached out to the hometown team, East Tennessee State, and agreed to host its home game with Western Carolina. ETSU shuttered the program in 2004 after nearly a century of football and revived it just last season, hiring former Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer as a consultant and former North Carolina head coach Carl Torbush to lead the team. The Bucs won a tight one 34-31. They also set a new all-time program attendance record of 13,863. Though in the same arena that drew nearly 160,000 one week earlier, there was no shortage of legroom.

          Because ... more SHAQ. The Big Aristotle also did some buffing and polishing while on the Death Valley sideline.

          Weston Steelhammer name of the week: Rod Rook-Chungong, DE, Georgia Tech. His full name is Roderick Anthony Rook-Chungong, the son of Richard Chungong and Angela Rook. His name is almost as fun to say aloud as he is to chat with. Dude is smart. A major in literature, media and communication, he and his teammates held Vanderbilt to one TD and 275 yards of offense, only 85 on the ground.

          Frank Reich backup QB of the week award: Austin Kendall, Oklahoma. Sorry, but I mean, come on, this was too easy, right? He's the guy who predicted Mayfield would carve up Ohio State's "basic" defense.

          Comeback of the week award, also named for Frank Reich: North Dakota 47, South Dakota 44. It'd be too easy to go with Alabama's 21-point comeback in Oxford, right? So we're taking you to Grand Forks, North Dakota. One week ago South Dakota trailed Weber State by 21 points in the fourth quarter and came back to win in double-overtime. On Saturday the Coyotes led North Dakota by 20, but the Fighting Hawks used a pick-six to tie the game 34-34 in regulation and won 47-44 in, you guessed it, double-overtime.

          The guy you should know about, but probably don't: Davis Webb, QB, Cal. Back in April I sat in on a Bears scrimmage and watched them rotate six quarterbacks with the first-team offense. Six! Looking back now, the idea of a QB controversy seems downright silly. The Texas Tech grad transfer grew up a Texas fan, but the school elected to recruit Tyrone Swoopes instead of the kid who grew up wearing a Colt McCoy jersey. Saturday night he torched his former favorite team via the Bear Raid offense for 396 yards and four TDs, though it still took a weird ending to win it 50-43.

          The team you should know about but probably don't: Army. The Black Knights have long been the distant third-place outfit in the race for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, trailing Navy and Air Force. But on Saturday the boys from West Point defeated UTEP at the Sun Bowl 66-14. It's the first time they've topped 60 points since defeating Colgate 68-6 in 1958 and the first time they've reached 3-0 since 1996 when they posted a school record 10 wins and a 10-3 record. They've had just one winning season since, and one more victory would double their win total from 2015. What's more, they earned Saturday's victory with heavy hearts, mourning the loss of teammate Brandon Jackson, a sophomore cornerback who died in a single car accident one week earlier, hours after the team's win over Rice.

          The game(s) you should be psyched for but probably aren't: Pitt at North Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, ESPNU). The ACC Coastal has long been college football's greased-pole division, a sloppy mess of ascension to the top. This year was supposed to be more cut and dry. It's already pretty clear that it will instead be assuming its traditional spaghetti-pile persona. North Carolina has recovered from its season-opening loss to UGA and is now 2-1. Pitt, also 2-1, lost at Oklahoma State but proved its tractor-pull offense can also keep up in a shootout, losing 45-38. Now they'll meet to see who will grab the inside lane early in America's wackiest division race where the December payoff is a date with either Louisville, Clemson or FSU in the nomadic ACC Championship Game. Oh by the way, the prequel to this game is a suddenly interesting Thursday night matchup between a pair of 3-0 ACC teams, Clemson at Georgia Tech (7:30 pm. ET, ESPN). The Jackets are also in the Coastal.

          Extra point: Those of us watching college football in North Carolina on Saturday were shaken to the core when local TV stations broke into game coverage to deliver some horrible football-related news. Around 3 p.m. ET a charter bus traveling on U.S. 74 just outside of Rockingham, North Carolina, blew a tire and plowed into the median, killing four and sending the other 42 passengers to various hospitals scattered throughout the state. The bus was carrying the newly formed football team from the Ramah Juco Academy, located in Rock Hill, South Carolina, the high school football-crazed suburb of Charlotte that has produced a long line of NFL players, most recently Jadeveon Clowney. The team, made up of students from both Ramah and HBCU two-year school Clinton College, was traveling to Fayetteville, North Carolina, for the program's inaugural game, visiting the University of God's Chosen Disciples. Both schools describe themselves as college prep schools that use athletics to help kids seeking second chances at life and education. At least two of those students, along with the bus driver and a 10-year old boy, lost their lives on Saturday. No matter what level of football one plays, this hits close to home and heart.