Analyzing fantasy baseball's notable offseason moves

That was quite an unusual offseason, wasn't it?

We might always look back at the 2018-19 hot stove season as one of the quieter ones, with the marquee free-agent prizes, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, lingering on the market deep into February. Expectations entering the winter were astronomical, so the seemingly never-ending Harper and Machado sweepstakes cast a shadow upon what was generally an active offseason of player movement.

More than $1.85 billion total was spent on free agents as of March 7, exceeding the $1.43 billion spent during the entirety of the 2017-18 offseason, and 16 players fetched deals worth at least $25 million total, a competitive number to what we saw in both the 2016-17 and 2017-18 offseasons (14 apiece). There also were 16 prominent trades including players relevant in 15-team mixed leagues or smaller, with several including multiple such players.

What's more, more might change, with prominent names lingering on the free-agent market as of March 7, including Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel and Adam Jones. Once those five make their decisions on a 2019 (and beyond) team, we'll keep the list below updated as necessary.

In short, a lot changed this winter, even if it might not have felt that way.

That's where this column comes in. Here, we whittle down all of the winter's many player moves into roughly 4,000 words, saving you hours upon hours of research to keep up on those happenings. I've split them up into two sections: the nine team-changing transactions that affected fantasy baseball the most, ranked in order of overall impact, followed by shorter blurbs on other significant moves. "Overall impact" covers the extent of the move on anyone involved, whether the player himself or the impact upon his new or former team.

1. San Diego Padres signed SS Manny Machado. It's a move that, at first glance to the casual fantasy manager, might have appeared a bad one for the 26-year-old, considering the Padres were baseball's third lowest-scoring offense last season (3.8 runs per game) and their home ballpark, Petco Park, has seen fewer runs scored per game (7.72) since its opening in 2004 than any other full-time venue in baseball. Upon closer inspection, though, the move wasn't as damaging to his value as it might seem, with more of the negatives due in the near term. Since the Padres moved in Petco's fences following the 2012 season, the ballpark played closer to neutral, and in 2018 it was effectively a neutral venue, helping alleviate any panic. Machado will take over at third base for the team, unless the Padres want him to handle shortstop until top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is deemed ready, and should remain one of the 20 most valuable players and three most valuable shortstops in fantasy baseball. Machado's arrival also deepened an up-and-coming lineup that will eventually add Tatis, providing a top-to-bottom team boost in terms of runs, RBIs and plate appearances.

2. Philadelphia Phillies traded for C J.T. Realmuto. In an era where the catcher position has become a mockery, it might seem strange to see one this high on the list. Realmuto, though, is no ordinary catcher, and the impact of his trade was far from ordinary. He's a workhorse who joined Yadier Molina as the only backstops with at least 502 plate appearances (the batting title qualification minimum) in each of the past three seasons, his 1,655 total during that span 25 more than second-place Buster Posey. In being dealt by the Miami Marlins, he traded Marlins Park, the majors' second-worst ballpark for home runs overall and worst for right-handed hitters during the past three seasons combined (spanning the years with its current outfield dimensions), for Citizens Bank Park, the second-best ballpark for homers overall and the best for righties during the past five seasons combined. Realmuto, who in 2018 finished 78 overall spots higher overall on our Player Rater and scored 20 more fantasy points than any other catcher using our traditional scoring settings, instantly became the position's most coveted player, with a very real chance that he could run away with the positional lead in terms of value in 2019. Depending upon where he bats in the Phillies' lineup, he has a legitimate chance at a .280-25-85-5 season.

3. Philadelphia Phillies signed OF Bryce Harper. It took five months to happen, but Harper finally made his decision on a team on Feb. 28 and officially put pen to paper two days later, choosing a much more fantasy-friendly environment for himself in the Phillies than many of his other rumored suitors. By picking the Phillies, Harper moved from a league-average power environment in Washington's Nationals Park (0.991 home run factor from 2014-18, 18th in the majors) to one of the game's best, as mentioned above. He also gave the team a much-needed left-handed power piece in a lineup that was leaning awfully right-handed beforehand, not to mention a middle-of-the-order bat that gives the team a lot of options as far as lineup order. Harper's fantasy value won't be any worse for the Phillies than it had been for the Washington Nationals up to this point in his career, but he's going to provide a noticeable counting numbers boost (runs and RBIs) to all of the hitters batting around him. Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, the aforementioned Realmuto and even Andrew McCutchen and/or Cesar Hernandez are among the names who might see as many as 10 more total runs/RBIs as a result of the record-setting Harper signing.

4. St. Louis Cardinals traded for 1B Paul Goldschmidt. Here's another example of the perceived park factors falling out of line with their reality. Goldschmidt did get off to a poor start in 2018, struggling with fastballs for the first time in his eight-year career, but he went on a scorching streak in the Arizona Diamondbacks' final two-thirds of their schedule, batting .329/.420/.606 while proving the humidor that the team introduced before the year no obstacle to his success. That humidor did lower Chase Field's park factors, though, as the venue ranked 11th for runs scored (1.057) and 20th for home runs (0.935), numbers that weren't worlds off Busch Stadium's during the past five seasons (0.946, 21st, and 0.833, 24th). While the Cardinals haven't been an aggressive team on the basepaths in recent seasons, it's possible they could exploit Goldschmidt's wheels to make up for any ballpark-influenced shortcomings in terms of power, resulting in a potentially more balanced stat line but similar overall fantasy value. He significantly improved the heart of the team's order with his arrival regardless. The Cardinals' offense could be quite a bit more potent in 2019, helping boost Marcell Ozuna's rebound prospects for one. In exchange, the team's defense improved at first base but could suffer at second and/or third base as well as right field, as players such as Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez, whose limitations can be better hidden at first base, will need to find their at-bats elsewhere.

5. Colorado Rockies signed 2B Daniel Murphy. Anytime the Rockies add a hitter, fantasy managers take notice, even soon-to-be-34-year-olds who spent 75 days on the disabled list at the onset of the most recent season while recovering from right knee surgery. Murphy is the near-perfect prototype for Coors Field, having posted line-drive rates in excess of 28 percent in each of the past two seasons while still getting considerable lift on the ball, meaning he should be able to exploit the venue's spacious outfield gaps and, with some luck (both on batted balls and the injury department), could again contend for a batting title and top-five second base value. There was a lot to like with this move for Murphy himself, but some frustration for the others displaced by his arrival, youngsters such as Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson, whose at-bats at first and second base are now threatened. Ian Desmond also will shift to center field, casting some questions about the efficiency of the Rockies' defense.

6. Washington Nationals signed SP Patrick Corbin. Humidor or no humidor, Chase Field remains one of the more hitting-friendly environments in baseball due to its higher elevations and higher temperatures (especially when the roof is open), and escaping it can do nothing but help Corbin's cause. While he did have a career ERA more than three-quarters of a run lower at home (3.52) than on the road (4.33) during his Diamondbacks career, he should still benefit from Nationals Park's closer-to-neutral park factors. Unfortunately for him, the National League East has strengthened overall offensively during the past year-plus, so there's probably no longer any divisional advantage. The Nationals' rotation is awfully strong with him on board, though, and that depth should afford the team the luxury to optimize its bullpen usage behind its starters, which is good news for individual wins/saves.

7. Atlanta Braves signed 3B Josh Donaldson. They say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and Donaldson's was a smart gamble on the Braves' part, providing veteran leadership while adding a player who looked pretty good in the final weeks of 2018 after a year struggling with injuries. While Toronto's Rogers Centre provided him a more power-oriented home, Atlanta's SunTrust Park isn't an extreme pitchers' park and the supporting cast batting around him is considerably better than the Toronto Blue Jays lineups of 2017-18. Donaldson is one to monitor on the health front during spring training, but he could rebound in a major way in fresh surroundings, with a realistic chance at a top-10 fantasy third baseman season. Unfortunately, his arrival did push Johan Camargo off the position full time, with the Braves regarding him a Marwin Gonzalez-like utilityman on the 2019 roster. Expect Camargo to find enough playing time to remain fantasy-relevant, with a good chance that he'll add eligibility at second base and shortstop relatively quickly.

8. Cincinnati Reds traded for OF Yasiel Puig. His arrow already was pointing upward as 2018 concluded, as he batted .292 with eight home runs in 23 September games, then .300 with two home runs and eight RBIs in 16 postseason games, and now he'll call a significantly more power-friendly ballpark his home. With his trade to Cincinnati, Puig traded Dodger Stadium's below-average home run venue (0.977 for right-handed hitters from 2014-18, 18th in the majors) for Great American Ballpark's fourth-ranked 1.149. Considering he also stole eight bases in his final 61 games (playoffs included), he might be able to reach 30/15 numbers, which would thrust him into the top 75 overall and top 20 outfielders in fantasy. Puig's arrival -- along with Matt Kemp in the same deal -- did clutter an already crowded Reds outfield, though, with Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Nick Senzel and Phillip Ervin also in the mix. Any of these six could be an intriguing selection, so monitor how the roles settle this spring.

9. New York Yankees traded for SP James Paxton. It was one of the offseason's earliest moves, and also the one that signaled the Seattle Mariners' complete winter overhaul. Paxton's arrival in New York landed him in one of the game's worst home run environments, but in his defense, he's also one of the better pitchers at getting swings and misses (15.8 percent swinging-strike rate, seventh best among 140 pitchers who had 100-plus innings in 2018) against all hitters as well as ground balls from left-handed hitters (51.5 percent rate, 32nd highest among 160 starters to face 100-plus). He's one of the stronger skills-driven fits for Yankee Stadium, and should benefit from massive boosts in terms of run and bullpen support, as the Yankees averaged 1.07 runs per game more than the Mariners and had a bullpen ERA 0.38 runs lower. Pinstripes aren't an instant cure for injuries, but they should be enough to propel him easily into the top 20 fantasy starting pitchers of 2019.

More moves of note

Listed in alphabetical order by player, below are some of the offseason's other notable team-changers, those who failed to earn a place in the top nine but for whom their transactions could still be significant.

Chicago White Sox traded for 1B Yonder Alonso. People spent the offseason talking up his brother-in-law-to-Manny Machado status as a way of the team potentially luring Machado to the South Side, but Alonso's arrival in Chicago was a pretty good move for him too. He totaled 51 homers and slugged .458 in 2017-18 combined after elevating his launch angle and now calls a homer-friendly park his home.

Cleveland Indians traded for 1B/OF Jake Bauers. His late-season struggles cast a short-term shadow on his fantasy appeal, but Bauers' high-on-base, pull-power approach makes him a good fit for both the Indians' lineup as well as Progressive Field's lefty-power-oriented dimensions. He's a potential deep-mixed/AL-only sleeper.

Houston Astros signed OF Michael Brantley. He rebounded in a big way in 2018, mainly because he stayed healthy enough to play in 143 games, his most in four years. Brantley's elite-contact, line-drive oriented game is a perfect fit for him to bat high in another potential lineup with the Astros. Just keep your fingers crossed that he'll stay healthy for another 143-plus.

Seattle Mariners traded for OF/1B Jay Bruce. The finance-balancing portion of the Mariners' return for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz in trade, Bruce at least stands an excellent chance at every-day at-bats in a heart-of-the-order lineup spot in Seattle. He's an extreme fly ball hitter whose extensive role should give him an outstanding chance at a rebound to the 30-homer plateau.

Texas Rangers signed SS/2B/3B Asdrubal Cabrera. One of the most consistently useful -- albeit as a back-end value in shallow mixed -- infielders in fantasy, Cabrera chose an excellent offensive environment for 2019. He'll be the Rangers' regular third baseman and should come close to or exceed his eight-year average of .264-18-87, 70-run numbers.

New York Mets traded for 2B Robinson Cano. While his arrival clouded the short-term role of late-2018 breakthrough Jeff McNeil -- McNeil is expected to experiment in left field this spring -- Cano's return to New York but in a different team color represents a prime bounce-back scenario. He has aged well in spite of his suspension-driven absence last year and remains a borderline top-10 second baseman.

Chicago White Sox traded for RP Alex Colome. The major league leader in saves just two short seasons ago (47), Colome might factor into the White Sox's wide-open closer race, though the team appears to be leaning toward a committee approach. Keep tabs on that spring battle, as his ERA/WHIP might not be low enough in Guaranteed Rate Field to make him a worthwhile pick if in a setup role.

Minnesota Twins signed DH Nelson Cruz. His 38 years of age are beginning to catch up with him, but Cruz has paced the majors in home runs the past four seasons (163) and still can contribute a good amount with the bat. He'll be the Twins' regular DH in a ballpark that's not as bad for right-handed power as you'd think.

New York Mets traded for RP Edwin Diaz. Another piece traded as part of the Mariners' fire sale, the Mets picked up Diaz, who is coming off one of the best seasons by a closer in the game's history, to shore up their relief corps. The league switch should ease any regression concerns, and Diaz's filthy pitch selection should again make him at least one of the three best closers in fantasy.

Washington Nationals signed 2B Brian Dozier. The Nationals might've fetched themselves a bargain in Dozier, who struggled with a knee injury for the majority of his disappointing 2018. He'll be part of a potent offense with the Nationals and has averaged .253-32-88, 15-steal numbers the past three seasons.

Seattle Mariners traded for 1B Edwin Encarnacion. What initially appeared to be a "layover" team for Encarnacion, acquired in the Mariners' Carlos Santana salary dump, now seems like his initial squad for 2019. Encarnacion takes over for the departed Nelson Cruz at DH, with similar trends in terms of power potential as well as a natural aging curve to Cruz, and he could always be traded into a more homer-friendly environment during the year.

New York Mets signed RP Jeurys Familia. He returned to the Mets this winter after a brief, half-season stop in Oakland, but the closer's role is no longer there for Familia's taking. He'll presumably set up for Edwin Diaz this time, making him more handcuff material for Diaz's fantasy managers than helpful from Day 1.

Washington Nationals traded for C Yan Gomes. One of the game's most well-rounded defensive catchers, strong in staff management, pitch framing and reining in the running game, Gomes' best asset to the Nationals will be boosting the potential of the team's pitchers. He did show a hint more power along with an elevated launch angle in 2018, though, and might be able to contribute some homers with the bat.

Minnesota Twins signed SS/1B/2B/OF Marwin Gonzalez. A swiss army knife of a baseball player, Gonzalez might not possess elite skills in any one regard but he's capable enough with the bat to be a handy mixed league late-rounder. He'll be used in a similar way in Minnesota to how he was in Houston, and should see regular at-bats at the season's onset while usual third baseman Miguel Sano mends.

Milwaukee Brewers signed C Yasmani Grandal. He's another sound defensive catcher, one of the very best at pitch framing, which should pay dividends for the Brewers' more matchup-oriented staff. Miller Park, one of the game's five most homer-friendly venues, is also an excellent home for Grandal, who generates much of his fantasy value with the bat from his raw power.

Cincinnati Reds traded for SP Sonny Gray. Fresh surroundings could be good for Gray, who disappointed in a year and change in pinstripes. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park isn't that much less a hitting-friendly park than Yankee Stadium, but Gray will be reunited there with his Vanderbilt pitching coach, Derek Johnson, who is now the Reds' pitching coach. Perhaps that will help Gray's rebound prospects.

Kansas City Royals signed OF Billy Hamilton. Considering manager Ned Yost's tendencies on the basepaths -- the Royals had the third-highest stolen base attempt rate from 2016-18 (6.1 percent) -- Hamilton couldn't have picked a much better landing spot for his skill set. He'll be a defensive boon to the team's pitchers and should see plenty of playing time in center field, giving himself plenty of chances to run.

Los Angeles Angels signed SP Matt Harvey. He hasn't been close to the same pitcher he was earlier in his career following Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgeries, but did show some signs of life after his trade to the Reds last season (4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 24 starts). The Angels took a chance on Harvey, and while the league change went in the wrong direction, he could provide some matchups assistance in fantasy.

Chicago White Sox signed RP Kelvin Herrera. Another candidate for the White Sox's closer role, Herrera has averaged a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 60 strikeouts while bouncing between closing and setting up the past three seasons, making him a useful ratios/holds/saves option regardless of how that spring battle results.

Seattle Mariners signed SP Yusei Kikuchi. He comes to the States after posting a 2.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 25.1 percent strikeout rate in his ages 25-to-27 seasons in Japan, though the Mariners have already said they'll keep his workload in check by limiting him to roughly 30 starts with some on limited pitch counts. There should still be enough there to make him a potential top-50 fantasy starter.

New York Yankees signed 2B DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees should slot him in all over their infield, according to initially reported plans, helping boost his position flexibility while also giving fantasy managers a chance to mix and match with him in daily leagues. They might need to: He had wOBA 64 points lower on the road (.302) than at Coors Field (.366) during his seven-year run with the Rockies.

New York Mets signed 2B Jed Lowrie. He's coming off back-to-back healthy, remarkably productive campaigns, and has the fly ball-heavy approach that should continue to similarly fill the home run and RBI categories. Lowrie is expected to be the Mets' starting third baseman too, so he'll add additional position flexibility quickly.

Philadelphia Phillies signed OF Andrew McCutchen. For the first full season in his soon-to-be-11-year major league career, McCutchen will call a hitting-friendly environment his home, and don't overlook the small taste he got of Yankee Stadium as his home for 11 games late last season, when he had a 20.0 at-bat-per-home-run rate that exceeded his 24.8 career mark.

St. Louis Cardinals signed RP Andrew Miller. He's expected to serve in a matchups capacity all over the late innings for the Cardinals after struggling through an injury-marred 2018. Miller still has outstanding stuff and is one of the game's best choices for ERA, WHIP and holds when healthy, and he might even add double-digit saves to his ledger with the Cardinals' closer job wide-open.

Tampa Bay Rays signed SP Charlie Morton. He has ridden improved fastball and sinker velocity to a productive 2017-18 run, and now takes those pitches to Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field, one of the game's most pitching-friendly venues. Injuries tend to limit Morton to closer to the ERA-qualification innings threshold, but when he's on the mound he's one of the game's more reliable choices.

Los Angeles Dodgers signed OF A.J. Pollock. He'll be the rare regular player on a Dodgers team that is traditionally matchups-driven. Pollock's greatest obstacle to success has been his injury history -- he has missed 36 percent of his team's games in the past five seasons combined -- but he has been a solid five-category performer when on the field and showed a hint more power potential in 2018.

Oakland Athletics traded for SS/1B/3B Jurickson Profar. Many will react to this trade as terrible news for Profar, since Globe Life Park (second with 1.183) and the Oakland Coliseum (22nd with 0.943) ranked 20 spots apart in terms of runs scored park factors from 2014-18, but be aware that he has a more line-drives-and-speed-oriented game than one rooted in power. He'll add second base eligibility quickly as the A's projected starter there and might be ready to break through over a full 162 games.

New York Mets signed C Wilson Ramos. Injuries have become a concern for him in the past two-plus seasons, but a mostly healthy Ramos in 2018 looked much closer to his 2016 self than the more forgettable hitter of the first six years of his big league career. He'll play as often as he can for the Mets and is a clear top-10 backstop.

Cincinnati Reds traded for SP Tanner Roark. Part of the Reds' "let's-go-for-it" offseason overhaul, Roark has had some great fantasy years but over the course of his six-year career has leaned toward more of a matchups candidate. In Cincinnati's hitting-friendly home environment, that'll be especially true. Tread carefully.

Philadelphia Phillies signed RP David Robertson. One of the game's most reliable late-inning relievers, whether as a closer or eighth-inning option, Robertson should be the odds-on-favorite for save chances in a Phillies bullpen that leans strongly toward in-game matchups. If he can garner 30-plus opportunities, he'll have a legitimate chance at a top-five fantasy closer year.

Washington Nationals signed SP Anibal Sanchez. He revived what was a seemingly lost career as a 34-year-old member of the Atlanta Braves in 2018, thanks in large part to much greater usage -- and far better performance -- of his cutter and changeup, and now takes his improved game to the nation's capital. Sanchez's skills look more matchups than every game-driven, but he should come cheap in fantasy due to his many years of underperforming.

Cleveland Indians traded for 1B Carlos Santana. Back in Cleveland after a one-year stay in Philadelphia (followed by a few days in Seattle during the offseason), Santana should return to his usual high-on-base, decent-power game he exhibited with the Indians from 2011-17. It's a great mix for those in points leagues, especially if he bats high in the lineup, but don't expect much growth now that he's 33.

Minnesota Twins signed 2B Jonathan Schoop. He had an awful late-season stay in Milwaukee, but also couldn't capture a regular role on a team loaded with second base alternatives. He'll be a regular in Minnesota, and has much-better-than-average pop for a player at that position despite what's a mediocre walk rate.

Philadelphia Phillies traded for SS Jean Segura. He has averaged .308-14-57, 24-steal, 91-run numbers the past three seasons, and should benefit from the move to Philadelphia, especially if he leads off for the team as expected. Segura is a locked-in top-10 fantasy shortstop who might even see a slight boost in power in what's a much more homer-friendly home environment.

Seattle Mariners traded for OF Mallex Smith. The Mariners have made a habit of acquiring speedsters in recent seasons, which is great news for the speedy Smith. He had a standout second half of 2018, batting .311 with a .390 on-base percentage and 28 percent line-drive rate, and might be one of the better bargain choices for speed on a team that will practically guarantee him every-day at-bats (when healthy).

Seattle Mariners signed RP Hunter Strickland. After a good first half of 2018 as the San Francisco Giants' closer, and enters spring training the favorite for the role with the Mariners, especially as the team might seek to boost his trade value in the season's early weeks. Strickland hasn't been that reliable a reliever in his career to date, with wild performance streaks in-season, but if he has a strong spring, he could be a bargain.

Tampa Bay Rays traded for C Mike Zunino. He's an above-average defensive catcher, but his greatest asset is his raw power, which is among the best at his position. Zunino's extreme fly ball leaning and .209-plus isolated power in each of the past three seasons will be needed in Tampa Bay's extreme pitchers' park, but he's capable of hitting 20-plus baseballs over the fence and still contending for top-10 catcher status.