Who you got for fantasy MVP?
We're now in the stretch run. The discussion is starting to take shape.
What makes a player truly valuable in fantasy? Is it simply which player generates the most fantasy production? If that is the case, you can go ahead and engrave James Harden's name on your imaginary trophy.
But simply picking the player atop our Player Rater doesn't tell the whole MVP story.
Think of it this way: which single draft pick won your league? Which player generated the most production relative to where he was drafted?
For me, fantasy value is represented by which players outperformed their ADP to the greatest extent.
If you pick a player at No. 1 overall, and he ends up at No. 1 on the Player Rater, you basically got what you paid for. (Unless the No. 1 player on the Player Rater is outperforming his competition by a large amount... then you got something extra.)
But if you draft a player in the ninth round, and you get second-round production? That's a draft pick that could singlehandedly win your league. You nabbed yourself the equivalent of an extra second-rounder for the price of a ninth. The difference between a ninth-round pick and a second-round pick is nearly 10 Player Rater points.
My fantasy MVP formula is written as follows: elite player who generates the most value against his ADP. (Jarrett Allen is having a great season. He's returning fifth-round value from an 11th-round pick. But Allen doesn't qualify as "elite.")
What constitutes "elite" in fantasy?
It means figuring out where the weight is distributed in overall fantasy production.
(For the purposes of this discussion, I'm confining our results to the top 150 players on the Player Rater).
Think of every fantasy category as a separate commodity. Field goal percentage, free throw percentage, 3-pointers, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points scored... all get added up to create a master score.
Production in each category is weighted differently. If you lay out distribution of production by category in line graph form, you get a visual representation as to how production is weighted.
Field goal percentage production? Weighted towards the top 14 players in the category (Giannis Antetokounmpo through Julius Randle.) After Randle, production within the category follows a steady downward trajectory.
Out of the 66.18 Player Rater points available at the position, 48.17 of those points are generated by the top 14 players. (FT% is one of two categories where a player can generate negative Player Rater value). Those 14 players qualify as "elite" in this category.
Field goal percentage production: the top 11 players are elite. 3-point production: the top 14. Rebounds: the top 16. Assists: the top 14. Steals: the top 7. Blocks: the top 16. Points scored: the top 16.
Overall Player Rater points: the top 22. Take a look at the below graph. After player 22, distribution declines in a steady, highly orderly fashion.
According to this graph, which players are "elite?"
As of this writing, we're talking: James Harden, Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, Bradley Beal, Nikola Vucevic, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Blake Griffin, Mike Conley, and D'Angelo Russell.
(The 22 players' aggregate Player Rater score is 304.37. The top 150 players' aggregate score is 1020.42. So, the top 15 percent of players are responsible for generating 30 percent of overall Player Rater production.)
Out of these 22 candidates, we next need to look at which players are most outperforming their ADP. We're left with these five finalists: the five players generating the most Player Rater points above their ADP.
5. James Harden, SG/PG, Houston Rockets
Player Rater Ranking: 1 (22.94 points)
ADP: 2.4
Player Rater points generated above ADP: 4.64
Harden is only outperforming his ADP by about a single draft slot. What makes Harden an MVP candidate?
First off, remember that the higher you get in a draft, the more weight is added to each individual draft slot. Yielding No. 1 overall production out of a second-overall pick is a big jump.
If you draft a player at No. 2 overall, you should expect about 18.00 Player Rater points in production. You're getting about 25 percent above that in Harden.
If you look at that above graph of distribution of overall Player Rater value, you can see Harden is in a class by himself. Think of it this way: the difference between Harden and Durant (ranked second) is the same difference as there is between a third-round pick and an 11th-round pick.
Other factors supporting Harden's candidacy? His dominance in points scored and 3-pointers. His No. 2 overall ranking in fantasy's scarcest category (free throw percentage). His out-of-position production in blocks (his 0.8 blocks per game is fifth among all guards). Finally, the fact that he qualifies at PG/SG (fantasy's best dual qualification outside of Ben Simmons' one-of-a-kind PG/SF).
4. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards
Player Rater Ranking: 11 (14.21 points)
ADP: 28.6
Player Rater points generated above ADP: 4.73
Harden and Beal are essentially in a dead heat. But Beal gets inched ahead due to the fact that he doesn't hurt you in a single category. Rostering Harden means getting dinged in field goal percentage (his 44.1 FG%, extrapolated across 24.4 field goal attempts per game, is a huge negative -- it's good for 441st in the category.)
Beal is gaining momentum (he's No. 2 overall over the past 15 days). His John Wall-less volume boost could lift him into the top 10 by the end of the fantasy regular season.
3. D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Brooklyn Nets
Player Rater Ranking: 22 (10.07 points)
ADP: 88.6
Player Rater points generated above ADP: 4.96
Getting high-third-round production out of a late ninth-round pick is the kind of choice that can win your league. Like with Harden, Russell carries the vaunted PG/SG qualification. Also like with Harden, he's going to kneecap your field goal percentage.
2. Paul George, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Player Rater Ranking: 4 (17.64 points)
ADP: 19.4
Player Rater points generated above ADP: 6.70
When you factor in the weight of each early-round draft slot, getting fourth overall production out of the 19th pick represents one of the best pure value plays in fantasy. George is also gaining momentum (No. 1 over the past 15 days).
1. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
Player Rater Ranking: 12 (14.12 points)
ADP: 59.0
Player Rater points generated above ADP: 7.18
The surging George could pass Vucevic, but for now Vucevic is my MVP. He's doubling the amount of production you'd expect from the 59th overall pick.
Vucevic doesn't hurt you in any categories (especially important in FT%, traditionally a sore point for centers). He plays fantasy's scarcest position. He generates out-of-of position production in three categories (3s, assists and steals). He's dominant in rebounds (a scarcer category than typically expected in 2018-19.)
Using advanced stats, you can see Vucevic has taken the rare dual leap in terms of volume and efficiency. He's posting career highs in PER (25.67), Usage Rate (27.7) and True Shooting Percentage (57.7%, anchored by a 38.0 3PT%).
Most importantly, Vucevic is finally staying healthy. After playing in only 57 games last season and averaging 29.5 MPG, he's already played 58 games with a 31.1 MPG.
A cynic might look at all of this and mutter "contract year." And the cynic may be correct. Vucevic is going to paid this summer. If anything, Vucevic is a statistical illustration of why one should always bump up pending free agents in your draft by at least a round.