Fantasy Football
Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer 5y

Fantasy intel for all 32 NFL teams ahead of Week 15

Fantasy, Fantasy NFL

The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.

Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.

The infirmary

New York Jets RB Isaiah Crowell went down with a foot injury after only three touches on Sunday. Elijah McGuire played a huge role in his place, racking up 17 carries for 60 yards and one touchdown and three catches for 23 yards on four targets. McGuire played 40 snaps and Trenton Cannon touched the ball on six of his 17 snaps. If Crowell misses time, McGuire will be in line for 15-plus touches and will be a flex option against Houston next week. McGuire is available in just over 88 percent of ESPN leagues.

Buffalo Bills RB LeSean McCoy went down with a hamstring injury in Week 14 and was replaced by Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy. Ivory carried the ball 12 times and was targeted once on 26 snaps. Murphy chipped in with four carries and one target on 37 snaps. With QB Josh Allen and WR Isaiah McKenzie also heavily involved in the running game, neither McCoy replacement will be particularly appealing if the oft-injured back misses time.

Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed suffered a foot injury early in Sunday's game. Replacement Vernon Davis stepped in and caught all four of his targets for 31 yards. He ran a route on 26 of his 44 snaps, whereas Jeremy Sprinkle wasn't targeted on any of his 16 snaps (11 routes). Davis was a full-time player after Reed went down last season, but was held to a 26 catches for 336 yards and two scores during the final nine games. That was good enough for the 11th-most fantasy points at the position. Of course, with Josh Johnson the quarterback this season as opposed to Kirk Cousins last time around, this is a situation to avoid.

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler took a hit to the helmet late in Sunday's game against the Bengals and is questionable to face the Chiefs on Thursday night. If Melvin Gordon returns, he'll be safe to fire up as a strong RB1 option. If Gordon and Ekeler are sidelined, rookie Justin Jackson will be positioned for a massive workload. The seventh-round pick played only 13 snaps on Sunday, but carried the ball seven times and was targeted twice. Jackson has impressive on a small sample thus far, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and catching all five of his targets. If called on to start, Jackson will be a solid RB2 play, though Detrez Newsome would also be in the mix.

Tennessee Titans TE Jonnu Smith was lost for the season with an MCL injury on Thursday. With Smith out, Anthony Firkser played 22 snaps (12 routes) and caught all three of his targets for 27 yards. MyCole Pruitt and Luke Stocker were also mixed in, but combined for nine routes and two targets on 58 snaps. Firkser is the next man up as Tennessee's receiving tight end, but is not a good fantasy option.

Opportunity alert

Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his expected fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns.

Here is the Week 14 OFP leaderboard:

*Complete positional leaderboards will be posted at ESPN+ this week.

The Cowboys ran 93 offensive snaps on Sunday night, which ties the 2016 Patriots (Super Bowl) and 2013 Bengals (Week 9) for most in a single game during the past decade. Running nearly 30 more plays than the league average will certainly boost your OFP, which is why RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Dak Prescott and WR Amari Cooper all ended up in the top 15. Elliott ranks second, Prescott fourth and Cooper second in fantasy points at their respective positions since Cooper joined the Cowboys in Week 9. OFP suggests the production is legitimate, as they rank second, second and eighth, respectively, in the category during the span. As we'll get to later in the FORP chart, Cooper's recent outbursts have him over his head, but he's clearly enjoying enough volume to allow solid WR1 numbers the rest of the way.

FORP

FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP (or expected fantasy point total).

First, here are the players who have fallen short of their OFP by the largest margin during the past month and are thus candidates to see a rise in fantasy production, assuming they see a similar workload:

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford was held to 101 passing yards and failed to score a touchdown on Sunday. He's now managed only two scores during his past four games. Incredibly, Stafford's best fantasy outing this season was finishing ninth at the position way back in Week 2 and he's been 15th or worse in nine straight outings. That's a bit hard to believe for a quarterback who finished six of the past seven season as a top-9 fantasy quarterback. Stafford isn't close to QB1 territory right now.

And these players have exceeded their OFP by the largest margin during the past month and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward:

Titans RB Derrick Henry exploded for 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns on Thursday night, but that shouldn't change your valuation of him moving forward. Henry was on the field for 40 percent of the offensive snaps, which isn't far off his 36 percent mark this season. Prior to the huge game, Henry had failed to clear 65 scrimmage yards in a single game this season. Still a timeshare back with a minimal receiving role in a low-scoring offense, Henry is no more than a touchdown-dependent flex option.

San Francisco 49ers WR Dante Pettis played 55 snaps on Sunday and has now paced the team's wide receivers in snaps in three consecutive games. Granted Pierre Garcon has missed four straight games and Marquise Goodwin returned from a two-game absence on Sunday, but Pettis seems to have locked down a significant role. The 2018 second-round pick has been targeted exactly seven times in three straight games and is fantasy's No. 6 scoring wide receiver during the span. His touchdown production during three games (four on 12 catches) isn't sustainable (1.1 OTD and two end-zone targets), but the sizable role and strong play are enough to put him in the WR3 discussion against Seattle this week.

Snap attack

Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner was out on Sunday, which opened the door for Jaylen Samuels (46 snaps) and Stevan Ridley (eight) to handle backfield duties. Samuels carried the ball 11 times and was targeted on seven of his 28 routes. Ridley touched the ball only five times, but did score a touchdown. If Conner misses more time, Samuels will be a fringe RB1 and Ridley no more than a touchdown-dependent desperation flex in non-PPR leagues.

Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards was a highly-coveted player on waivers a few weeks ago, but he hasn't turned into a very good fantasy asset. Edwards has managed one weekly finish better than 24th and has finished outside the top 40 each of the past two weeks. He has 77 carries (one inside the opponent's 8-yard line) and zero targets over the past four weeks. On Sunday, Edwards played 31 snaps, whereas Kenneth Dixon handled 21 and Ty Montgomery 18. This has quickly become a committee. Edwards is more valuable in non-PPR leagues, but is no more than a flex.

Carolina Panthers TE Ian Thomas played 58 of a possible 69 snaps on Sunday. Greg Olsen's replacement caught 9 of 10 targets for 77 yards. The fourth-round rookie has now seen five or more targets in four straight games in which Olsen was out or left injured. Thomas is a fringe TE1 option moving forward.

Green Bay Packers WR Randall Cobb scored a touchdown on Sunday and has been targeted 11 times in two games since returning from injury in Week 13. Among the team's wide receivers, only Davante Adams has played more snaps, run more routes and seen more targets during the span. Cobb is best viewed as a flex moving forward, but will be a shaky Week 15 option even if Bears slot CB Bryce Callahan is sidelined.

New York Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. was out with a quad injury on Sunday. The wide receiver routes were distributed as follows in his absence: Sterling Shepard (23), Russell Shepard (18), Bennie Fowler (16), Corey Coleman (14) and Jawill Davis (6). Coleman actually ranked second in the group in snaps, but spent a lot of time blocking in the blowout over Washington. If Beckham remains out, only Sterling Shepard is worth WR3 consideration.

Miami Dolphins RB Brandon Bolden scored a pair of touchdowns on Sunday, but don't run out and add him on waivers. Bolden registered only three touches on four snaps after entering the game having played only three offensive snaps this season. At best, he's the Dolphins No. 3 back.

Denver Broncos WR DaeSean Hamilton was on the field for a position-high 43 of the team's 44 pass plays on Sunday. Emmanuel Sanders' replacement in the slot was targeted nine times and caught seven for 47 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton (31 routes) caught two passes for 14 yards on six targets and Tim Patrick (37 routes) had an impressive seven-catch, 85-yard performance. This trio will be very busy down the stretch. Despite the rough day, Sutton remains the top fantasy play and Hamilton now looks safer as a flex option. Patrick is worth a speculative add, but figures to settle in third in line.

Arizona Cardinals WR Trent Sherfield was on the field for 42 of the team's 44 pass plays on Sunday. He caught five of seven targets for 77 yards. Sherfield played a much bigger role with Christian Kirk out for the season and Chad Williams still sidelined. The undrafted rookie is worth monitoring in dynasty, but has minimal short-term value in an offense that ranks last in the league in plays (55 per game) and 31st in touchdowns (1.5 per game).

Burning questions

Can I drop Panthers WR Devin Funchess? Yes. Funchess is no longer a must-start and, especially this late in the season, he's not a player you need to keep on your bench. Funchess' role has dipped drastically during the team's losing streak. He's eclipsed five targets in a game once during his past five games and hasn't posted more than 44 yards in a game since Week 7. On Sunday, he was fourth in line at receiver, having played only 27 of a possible 69 snaps. It appears he's fallen behind Curtis Samuel (64 snaps), DJ Moore (62) and Jarius Wright (35).

Can I drop New Orleans Saints WR Tre'Quan Smith? Of course. Smith's hefty playing time simply hasn't led to many targets. In fact, he's been held without a single catch during three of his past four games. Mixed in there was a 10 receptions (on 13 targets) for 157 yards and a touchdown performance, but recent play suggests that was the outlier. Smith has cleared 100 receiving yards twice this season, but has fallen short of 45 yards in every other game. Smith was on the field for 63 percent of the offensive snaps on Sunday, which is his lowest mark since Week 4.

Should I bench Atlanta Falcons RB Tevin Coleman? Coleman is trending in the wrong direction and is now more of a flex option, so yes, bench him if you can. Atlanta's lead back was held to 41 scrimmage yards on Sunday after managing 11 yards in Week 13 and 23 yards in Week 12. The Falcons have essentially turned to a two-headed committee, with Coleman totaling 32 carries and 10 targets on 124 snaps during the past four weeks. Rookie Ito Smith sits at 28 carries and nine targets on 96 snaps during the span.

Should I be worried about starting Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen? No! Sure, the Vikings' offense is slumping, but Thielen has still failed to post a single fantasy finish worse than 27th this season. After finishing top-10 during seven of his first eight outings, Thielen has been 21st or worse four of his past five. But, again, even though the ceiling has dropped a bit, Thielen's floor is incredibly high thanks to a hefty target share in a pass-heavy offense.

Quick hitters

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz hasn't posted a weekly fantasy finish better than sixth this season and hasn't posted a top-8 outing since Week 8. Wentz's completion percentage has jumped from 60 percent last season to 70 percent in 2018, but he's averaging 11.0 yards per completion (down from 12.4) thanks to more conservative play (8.0 average depth of throw is down significantly from 10.0 last season). Wentz is also doing a lot less with his legs. He has 93 rushing yards in 11 games after posting 299 in 13 games last season. Wentz is a QB2 going forward.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Dede Westbrook racked up seven catches for 88 yards and a score on 10 targets in Week 13. Westbrook has now scored five touchdowns on the season, four of which have come during his past eight games. He's also handled a target share of at least 18 percent during five straight games. Westbrook is a risky play in the Jaguars' quarterback-deprived offense, but his usage keeps him in the flex mix in most formats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is handling a weak 18 percent target share during the past five weeks and has failed to eclipse a 21 percent share in a single game during the span. Despite the dip in usage, Evans still sits 13th in fantasy points at the position thanks to some high-end efficiency. Evans' 421 yards on 33 targets ranks ninth during the five weeks. The dip in usage is an obvious concern, but this high-volume, high-scoring Bucs offense can still allow Evans strong WR2 numbers moving forward.

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku sits 12th in fantasy points at the position, but that's more a product of staying healthy than it is effectiveness. Njoku has been held to four top-10 fantasy outings, only one of which has come during his past six games. Njoku has finished 26th or worse at the position in seven of 13 games this season. He remains a boom-or-bust fringe TE1.

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