Fantasy Football
KC Joyner, ESPN Staff Writer 5y

Can you trust Jared Goff and Brandin Cooks in your title game?

Fantasy NFL, Fantasy, NFL

The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.

This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at the problems with the Los Angeles Rams, whether the Pittsburgh Steelers' run game has finally turned around and what caused the collapse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' passing attack.

Can the Rams be trusted in fantasy title games?

Many fantasy managers can partially thank the Los Angeles Rams for earning fantasy football playoff berths, but there may not be a more disappointing group in the fantasy postseason than Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds, all of whom have posted at least one single-digit point total during the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.

Fantasy managers who were able to overcome these subpar games and advance to the next round have to be wondering if they can count on the Rams to post quality point totals over the next week or two (depending on your fantasy playoff format).

The metrics strongly suggest these problems could continue for a number of reasons.

Prior to Week 13, the Rams had allowed a pass pressure rate (PPR) mark of 33 percent or higher in only two games, with one of those occurring all the way back in Week 2.

That hasn't been the case the past three weeks, as the Rams allowed a 40 percent PPR against Detroit in Week 13 and a 36.7 percent PPR against the Bears in Week 14. Their 17.5 percent PPR against the Eagles was a huge improvement, but it came at the expense of downfield passing. The Rams averaged only 6.2 air yards per attempt on throws against Philadelphia, a mark that was third lowest for the team this season and the fifth lowest by any club in Week 15.

The troubling part about this is that much of the pass-rush pressure is being generated without the assistance of blitzing by the opposing defenses. Detroit and Chicago blitzed only 11.4 and 14.3 percent of the time, respectively, in those contests. That is the lowest and third-lowest blitz rates the Rams have seen this season.

The lack of blitzing did allow for additional time for Goff to throw, as the Rams posted back-to-back games with three-plus seconds of time before pass for the first time this season against the Lions and Bears, but that didn't help Goff at all.He has averaged only 5.6 fantasy points per game over the past three contests on plays where the opposing team didn't blitz, a scoring pace that ranks 32nd among quarterbacks.

All of this suggests that teams have determined they can sit back in shell coverages and wait until the pass rush gets to Goff, as he isn't going to be able to hit big plays against them under those circumstances.

Since this is now an established pattern, Goff cannot be considered a starting-caliber candidate in Week 16. Cooks catches enough short passes to still rate as a WR2 or WR3 in PPR leagues, but three straight weeks of posting 62 or fewer receiving yards indicates he is a very risky start in non-PPR leagues. Reynolds is in a similar production boat as Cooks, so avoid him as a flex option next week. The only exception to all of this is Robert Woods, as he now has posted 13 straight games with 12-plus points in PPR leagues and is enough of a workhorse to be trusted in all formats even under these unfavorable circumstances.

Will the Steelers' ground game continue to shine?

Pittsburgh has a longstanding reputation for strong run blocking, yet the reality is that its run blocking has been terrible for most of this season. The Steelers came into Week 15 ranked last in my most recent set of run-blocking grades. The nadir of their 2018 campaign occurred in the Week 14 matchup against the Raiders, as Pittsburgh's 16.7 percent good blocking rate (GBR) was its lowest in that metric in the past two seasons.

All of that turned around against the Patriots, as the Steelers posted a 70.8 percent GBR that is the highest they have had over the past two seasons. It led to Jaylen Samuels posting 142 rushing yards on 19 carries and landing in low-tier RB1/high-tier RB2 territory with 19.2 fantasy points.

That may make it seem like all is now well with Pittsburgh's ground game, but it occurred against a Patriots run defense that has been astoundingly bad of late. The league average in GBR, a metric that measures how often an offense gives its backs quality run blocking, is 45 percent. For a defense to allow a single-game GBR of anything higher than 50 percent is well below average, and reaching 60 percent will normally assure that defense will have the worst GBR allowed in that week.

Since Week 6, New England's defense has allowed a GBR of 50 percent or higher on seven occasions. In five of those games, the GBR was 61 percent or higher; in four of those games, it was 69 percent or higher.

For Pittsburgh to rack up a high GBR under these circumstances says it actually performed only somewhat higher than par for the course. That likely won't be the case next week against a Saints' rush defense that came into Week 15 ranking fifth in my latest rush-defense grades. Samuels is still apt to post at least flex-caliber fantasy points against New Orleans, but it would be a low percentage play to think of him as repeating his RB1/RB2 performance from this week.

Fantasy managers should also be aware that the Patriots face the Bills and Jets in Weeks 16 and 17. Buffalo just posted a 60.6 percent GBR against the Lions, so whoever ends up getting the carries in their injury-wracked backfield may be a great waiver addition for fantasy managers looking for running back help in championship week.

Quick note

Jameis Winston came into the Week 15 contest against Baltimore riding a three-game streak of scoring 19-plus points. That came crashing to earth, as the Ravens held him to a season-low 4.3 fantasy points as well as shutting out Chris Godwin and holding Adam Humphries to a meager 6.3 points.

Abysmal pass blocking was the main factor here, as the 46.2 percent PPR allowed by Tampa Bay was the second highest in Week 15. Dallas is equally capable of dominating the Buccaneers' blocking wall in Week 16, so aim to keep Buccaneers players away from the starting lineup next week.

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