Fantasy Football
Andre Snellings, ESPN 5y

Dak Prescott among quarterbacks projected to exceed ranking in Week 15

Fantasy NFL, Fantasy, NFL

Last season, IBM introduced IBM Insights, a tool that uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions.

Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low-end estimate (e.g. "bust") on any given week.

For those that are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.

The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 15 of the NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.


Quarterback decisions

While quarterbacks can provide some of the best fantasy value in a given week, it can be difficult to decide beforehand which one to start. IBM Insights provides information that can help make these decisions easier.

The following analysis was performed on the 28 starting quarterbacks that are expected to play (and that did not already play on Thursday).

Projections higher than rank

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens

  • Weekly rank 112, 12th among eligible QBs

  • High projection: 22.6 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 13.4 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.22

  • Bust chance: 0.24

Winston has been consistently productive since re-taking the starting quarterback job for the Buccaneers, notching either 300-plus yards through the air or 200-plus yards passing and at least 45 yards rushing in each game. He has also taken care of the ball, with only one interception against six touchdown passes (exactly two per game) during that stretch. He faces a road challenge against a tough Ravens defense, but Insights has projected him with a high ceiling, a high floor, and about an equal chance to boom as to bust.

Watson's Insight: Winston has been consistently productive since taking the job back, and Watson projects him as a QB1 this week even against a stout Ravens defense.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

  • Weekly rank 130, 13th among eligible QBs

  • High projection: 22.6 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 13.4 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.08

  • Bust chance: 0.24

Prescott's high projection of 22.3 fantasy points is among the upper half of quarterbacks to play this weekend, but his bust chance is three times that of his boom. Thus, he's a bit of a high-risk, high-reward prospect this week against a solid Colts defense. Prescott has shown he can put up big numbers since Amari Cooper's arrival, but there's also the chance that he falls back and lets Ezekiel Elliott do the heavy lifting.

Watson's Insight: Prescott has the ability to put a big number on the board in a quarterback battle with Andrew Luck, but he could also take a back seat to Elliott in a defensive struggle. He is a high-risk, high-reward prospect this week.


Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Weekly rank 138, 14th among eligible QBs

  • High projection: 22.6 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 13.4 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.22

  • Bust chance: 0.06

The Ravens have won three of the four games that Jackson has played, and had a strong chance to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs last week before succumbing in overtime. Jackson has averaged 151 yards through the air and 83 yards rushing in those starts, with three touchdowns and three interceptions through the air but an additional two touchdowns on the ground. This week, against an awful Buccaneers defense, Insights projects Jackson as a high-ceiling, high-floor prospect with almost four times the likelihood to boom as to bust.

Watson's Insight: Jackson's rushing makes him a threat even when the pass isn't working, and Watson identifies him as a borderline QB1/QB2 this week against a poor Buccaneers defense.

Nick Mullens, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

  • Weekly rank 259, 22nd among eligible QBs

  • High projection: 22.8 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 9.57 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.22

  • Bust chance: 0.07

Mullens has averaged 295.8 passing yards with 1.8 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions in his last five starts, with more than 330 yards, exactly two passing touchdowns and one interception in his last two starts. He has a tough matchup this week against the Seahawks, but IBM Insights still projects him with more than three times the likelihood to out-produce his relatively high projection than to fail to reach his low projection.

Watson's Insight: Mullens projects as a high-ceiling, low-floor prospect this week but with a much better chance to boom than to bust, according to Watson.

Insights provided by IBM Watson in partnership with ESPN.

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