When you start talking about fantasy football, you can say "RB1" or "WR3" and the community immediately knows that you are referring to a top-tier running back or a third-tier wide receiver. You can infer even more information, given the knowledge that many fantasy football leagues are of the 12-team variety, so you know an RB1 is ranked somewhere in the top 12, while a WR3 is ranked somewhere between 24-36 at their respective positions.
Furthermore, the implication from those labels is that the running back is locked into your lineup, while the wide receiver is someone you don't have to start every week if you can find an option with a better matchup. It's a lot of information packed into a quick label.
Now, when it comes to fantasy hockey, this system works really well at the goaltender position. "He's a G1." Generally speaking, a goalie referred to in this manner sits in the top tier of goaltending and should be locked into your lineup. If someone is a G2, you know he shouldn't necessarily be in your lineup all the time and there is potential to replace him with someone on a hot streak off the waiver wire.
When it comes to forwards, things start to get a bit messy. It kind of works if you still use LW and RW delineations in your league, though I've gone on record about my disdain for pretending that left wing and right wing are different positions, so I try to avoid them. Regardless, the fact is that there really is no true standard for how to roster forwards. Some leagues use C (center), RW and LW designations. Others divide things between C and W (winger). Many others, including ESPN's standard game, does away with all the intricacies and just uses F (forwards).
This diversity in the rules makes short-hand tiering terminology tricky, at best. Someone can be a RW3, a W6 and a F9 -- all at the same time. That translates to "He's a third-tier right winger in leagues that separate all three positions, a sixth-tier winger in leagues that only use centers and wings, and a ninth-tier forward in leagues that don't specify." See how it loses some of its appeal?
However, the terminology can still be used for defensemen, as most leagues don't start more than five or six total. Also, few fantasy hockey leagues seem to arbitrarily separate these players into LD (left defense) and RD (right defense), based on which side of the ice the player starts on. Who would do such a thing? It would be silly, right? Right?
With this in mind, I thought I'd take a deeper dive into what defines these separate tiers of defensemen this season. I've taken the top-60 defensemen based on the ESPN Player Rater, which ranks them according to fantasy value. The rater is a cold-hearted machine that doesn't account for any missed time or potential. It doesn't offer any glimpse as to what is to come, only caring about what has already been.
I broke the top-60 defensemen down into five groups of 12 players each, to see what each tier looks like statistically, in terms of averages for games played (GP), goals (G), assists (A), plus/minus, penalty minutes (PIM), power-play points (PPP) and shots on goal (SOG).
The thing that stands out most is the lack of any discernible difference between a D2 and a D5. In other words, the difference between the average defenseman from No. 13-24 on the ESPN Player Rater and the average defenseman from ranks No. 49-60 is only two goals, four assists, plus-1, four PIM, four power-play points and five shots on goal. Those nearly-negligible gaps could be made up with two hot games.
The other takeaway here is just how good the D1 tier has been. The difference between a D1 and a D2 this season has been one goal, 13 assists, plus-8, seven power-play points and 34 shots on goal. That's not a statistical gap that can be traversed with ease.
So, what to do with this information? Well, you get your hands on as many D1 talents as you can -- and don't let go. Trade away your D2-level players to upgrade. For example, package up Ryan Suter and a forward you can spare to go after Dustin Byfuglien or Roman Josi. Or, maybe try to pull the old "2-for-1" by sending Suter and Jacob Trouba together for a D1. After you seal the deal, you can pick up Damon Severson.
Finally, consider the following players -- none of whom was included in the above calculations: Shayne Gostisbehere, Mikhail Sergachev, Will Butcher, Hampus Lindholm and Brent Seabrook. All of these guys have 40-plus games played, yet couldn't crack the top-60 defensemen on the player rater. Seabrook, Lindholm and Butcher are definitely droppable. Sergachev is probably, too, though I'm a little more hesitant. I'm not so sure Gostisbehere can be kicked to the curb yet because, without someone else taking over the role (and Ivan Provorov hasn't been pushing him this season), he will be the default beneficiary on the blue line if this Flyers team can start to show some life.
Forwards on the move
Jake Guentzel, W, Pittsburgh Penguins (up 21 spots to No. 123): Receiving NHL "First star of the week" honors is nice, but here's the big question -- can Guentzel stay hot enough to keep Patric Hornqvist off of Pittsburgh's top power-play unit once Hornqvist is back? Power-play goals in consecutive games will help, but that's not something we can expect every game. Hornqvist is skating again as he deals with a concussion, but he is very injury-prone. Guentzel has a very solid floor thanks to his role as Sidney Crosby's chief winger, but getting to the next level will require him to maintain that power-play role for the long haul.
James van Riemsdyk, W, Philadelphia Flyers (up three spots to No. 130): I don't intentionally talk about the Flyers more than other teams in this space, but this roster simply seems to be more in flux this season than any other side. The latest deployment has van Riemsdyk back on Philadelphia's top line with Claude Giroux. More importantly, though, he's also on the top power play. So, how exactly did they fit him in with Giroux, Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds -- all locks for the top unit? Well, since neither Gostisbehere nor Provorov was getting the job done, interim coach Scott Gordon opted to forego using any defenseman at all on the man-advantage. The no-defense strategy netted a goal on Monday, but we'll see how long this lasts. Five-forward power plays are good in theory, until you start coughing up shorthanded goals that cost you games.
Yanni Gourde, W, Tampa Bay Lightning (up seven spots to No. 138): After being banished to the Lightning's third line in favor of Alex Killorn, Gourde is now back in the top-six on a line with Steven Stamkos and Ondrej Palat. Despite that now-defunct depth-chart demotion, Gourde is still on pace for 20 goals and 50 points. That pace should only accelerate the more time he spends on a scoring line.
Defensemen on the move
Jeff Petry, D, Montreal Canadiens (up 37 spots to No. 192): When Shea Weber returned from injury on Nov. 27, Petry's ice time-per-game plummeted and his role was severely reduced. Still, that hasn't stopped him from contributing. Petry has eight goals and eight assists in the last 23 games, compared with Weber's six goals and six assists in his return. Plus, over this stretch, Petry has slowly worked his ice time back up to the level it was when Weber was missing.
Mattias Ekholm, D, Nashville Predators (up 16 spots to No. 119): Similar to Petry, the thought was that Ekholm's pace would slow once P.K. Subban settled back into the Nashville lineup. Nope! Since Subban returned on Dec. 27, Ekholm has sustained his role. He has three goals and nine assists with 30 shots in 10 games, while Subban has just two goals, three assists and 23 shots in that same span.
Goaltender on the move
Pekka Rinne, G, Nashville Predators (down 14 spots to No. 44): Oh no! The mercurial Rinne from 2016-17, who we hoped was gone, appears to be making an 2018-19 appearance. If you'll recall, Rinne alternated between elite and awful on a month-to-month basis that season. Perhaps this season hasn't quite been as bizarre, but there have been some big swings on a week-to-week basis. Since Dec. 13, Rinne had two bad games, two good, one bad, one good, three bad, two good, and then two bad. (When I say good, I mean really good. When I say bad, I mean really bad.)
Rinne was locked in as the best goaltender in the league for the first two months of the season, but one has to wonder if his age is catching up with him a little bit. The only regular goaltending starters older than Rinne (36) are Mike Smith, Henrik Lundqvist, Craig Anderson and Roberto Luongo -- none of whom has been a fantasy darling of late. In fact, you could argue Lundqvist has seen a similar arc -- being awesome for the first two months before fatigue has seemingly set in.
New to rankings
Mikael Backlund (I should have elevated him sooner), Brock Nelson, Anders Nilsson (there might be something here for deeper leagues), Colton Sissons (the longer Kyle Turris is out, the more value he has), Jakub Vrana, Zach Hyman, Darcy Kuemper, Brandon Pirri, Nick Foligno and Justin Williams.
Just missed
Oscar Klefbom, Esa Lindell, Conor Garland (six goals in six games), Nick Bjugstad, Vincent Trocheck (already skating after that gruesome ankle injury) and Charlie Coyle.
Dropped out
Nick Schmaltz (done for season), Jordan Staal, Frank Vatrano, Adin Hill, Jakob Chychrun, Henrik Borgstrom, Nick Ritchie, Linus Ullmark, Patrick Marleau and Jesper Bratt.