Nikita Kucherov is scoring at a historic pace. The last time a player had at least 92 points through the first 58 games of a season was way back during the 1996-97 campaign, when Mario Lemieux had 94 points at this same point.
Hockey Reference has game data available from 1987 to 1988 onward for such queries. Since then, only 25 players have had as many as 92 points through their team's 58th game -- and every single instance (with the exception of Kucherov) happened more than 20 years ago. Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky and Steve Yzerman account for more than half of those 25 seasons combined. That's some heady company.
Sidney Crosby came close to this pace back in his 2006-07 sophomore campaign, when he had 91 points through 58 games. He went on to finish with 120 points that season -- one of only four times since 2000 that any NHL player has eclipsed 120 points. Joe Thornton and Jaromir Jagr (who did it twice) round out that extremely short list.
Kucherov is on pace for 130 points. The last time that number was reached by any player was in 1995-96, when both Lemieux and Jagr flew past that mark for the Pittsburgh Penguins. While I'm pointing out these historical thresholds I'd be remiss in not mentioning Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane are both on pace for 121 points.
With all these impressive on-pace numbers, it's fitting that league-wide scoring for all teams is tracking to finish at over 3.00 goals-per-game for the first time since 2005-06, and just the second time since 1995-96. Last season had the fifth-highest shots total on record, while this season is currently on pace to have the highest total since 1981-82 and is currently the 12th-highest on record.
There are eight players on pace to crack 100 points this season -- Kucherov, Kane, McDavid, Johnny Gaudreau, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Brayden Point and Brad Marchand. If they all get to the century mark, it would be the most players to do so since 1995-96, when 12 players topped triple digits. Watching all of these chases play out over the final two months of the season is going to be exciting, and it should continue to fuel fantasy hockey totals to enjoyable heights.
Fantasy Forecaster: Feb. 18-24
Highlights from teams playing four games: This looks like a good week to get back on the David Rittich train. The Calgary Flames netminder has had some "off" games, but he job wasn't threatened during this stretch by Mike Smith. Next week calls for four games, with no back-to-back sets and some of the league's weaker offenses, including the Arizona Coyotes, Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators. ... In addition to the Flames, the Chicago Blackhawks have four games with no back-to-back sets. However, we know that one goaltender won't get all four starts as the team continues to trade off between Cam Ward and Collin Delia, Plus, dare I suggest Corey Crawford? Yes, he's getting close to forcing a very uncomfortable situation in the crease. ... Devan Dubnyk grades out as one of the better goaltenders for the week on the Forecaster, so try to ignore his one win in six starts this month and just roll with him. ... As much fun as it has been to roll with Jordan Binnington lately, I'm not sold on the St. Louis Blues' schedule for next week -- four games against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Dallas Stars, Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild. Temper your expectations, but also get extremely excited if he emerges from this busy week relatively unscathed.
Teams playing two games: The Vancouver Canucks are the only team limited to two games. You should start Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson regardless, but nobody else is a lock.
Highlights from teams playing three games: Tuukka Rask, Jonathan Quick, Carey Price, Pekka Rinne, Matt Murray, Connor Hellebuyck and Frederik Andersen are among the goaltenders playing for teams scheduled for three games and no back-to-back sets. With lots of strong options due for plenty of game-time, including the teams with four-game sets, it shouldn't be hard to get your starts in this week. ... Brian Elliott is on a conditioning stint in the AHL, so his return to the Flyers looms. There are trade rumors circling around him, but even if he stays in town, nothing can eat into Carter Hart's workload too significantly at this stage of the game.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense) and "D" (defense) matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, its performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, and its opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
Team notes
Dallas Stars: The first consideration to make here is that Ben Bishop should be back for the upcoming four-game week. Currently sitting third in the NHL in GAA, Bishop is said to be a 50-50 option for Saturday's contest. That should mean he'll definitely be fine to have back in lineups by Tuesday. ... As for the offense, the Stars continue to tinker with line combinations, while occasionally simply returning to a stacked offense with Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov all playing together. The latest possible configuration includes rookie Roope Hintz on a top unit with Seguin and Radulov. Any combination of two of the team's stars with another forward is worth at least considering for short-term use -- and Hintz has shown his scoring pedigree in the AHL this season, with 22 points in 21 games.
Boston Bruins: The off-ice injury to David Pastrnak is a real bummer for fantasy, but we must endure. Danton Heinen had already moved up to the top line in Pastrnak's stead prior to the injury, so this just further cements his time spent with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Heinen scored three points on Tuesday and is a "must add" for as long as Pastrnak is out. ... Pastrnak's absence, however, downgrades the outlook on the second line, where David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk had been somewhat interesting with Pastrnak in tow. It is worth noting that both players were on the top power play along with Bergeron and Marchand. ... The Bruins play three road games next week, but grade out well on the Forecaster.
Chicago Blackhawks: With four games, including three against bottom-tier defenses, Chicago should continue their late-season renaissance next week. By now, you know the score with Dominik Kahun and Drake Caggiula as "plug-and-play assets" that allow you some exposure to the Blackhawks' top two lines, but have a look at the team's new third line, too. Brandon Saad, Artem Anisimov and rookie Dylan Sikura had a groove going on Tuesday, which means Saad may be worthy of a deep-league start. ... If you're not among those already using Erik Gustafsson, I don't know what to say other than to really ask yourself if he's not better than your current No. 4 defenseman. Gustafsson has fully taken over from Duncan Keith as the "top dog" on the blue line, and is currently on pace for 53 points.
Player notes
Alex Pietrangelo, D, St. Louis Blues: The numbers aren't jumping off the page, and a singular three-point outing certainly bolstered the overall numbers, but Pietrangelo nevertheless has seven points in his last nine games. He had been dropped in about one-quarter of ESPN leagues (and rightfully so), but may be worth having another look at given how the Blues are surging of late. He's still the defenseman that gets to man the team's power play.
Jack Roslovic, W, Winnipeg Jets: With news that Nikolaj Ehlers has had a setback in his return to the Jets lineup, Roslovic gets a reprieve and should remain in the top-six. The Jets have eye-popping Forecaster ratings for three road games against the Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights and the Coyotes. He should have a top-six role for all three games and, thus, is worth a look.
Luke Kunin, W, Minnesota Wild: Although the injury to Mikko Koivu didn't help him move up the Wild's depth chart, Kunin has still been "locked in" so far in February. The rookie has seven points in five games with a plus-8 rating. He's rolling on Minnesota's third line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno.
Justin Williams, W, Carolina Hurricanes: The veteran Williams should be in more lineups. The arrival of Nino Niederreiter and the subsequent separation of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen has left Williams in a plum spot. He's playing on the top line with Niederreiter and Aho, while also being deployed on the top power-play unit with Aho, Niederreiter and Teravainen. So far, returns are positive, with seven points in seven games.