Fantasy Sports
Davis Mattek 5y

Champions League fantasy difference makers: Salah, Liverpool lead the way

Fantasy Soccer, Fantasy

My friends, we are back for the final week of the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, which means the field is about to cut from 32 to 16. We are going to see less minnow vs. mammoth matchups, but most importantly, the motivation for teams in the last of the six matchweeks is always very clear. Some teams don't need to win or score while others need to win by multiple goals to advance. As always, we will take a brief look at the best differential plays at each tier in order to create a high upside, unique lineup.

Tier 1 forward

The only answer for Tier 1 forward is Mohamed Salah. Liverpool must win 1-0 or, if Napoli scores, the Reds need to score at least 3 goals to advance to the knockout stages of the Champions League. Salah will be on the side of Mario Rui (an attacking fullback) and the Egyptian has the best motivation to score and create fantasy points of anyone in the slate. Cristiano Ronaldo against Young Boys and Sergio Aguero against Hoffenheim are two elite forwards playing against weaker continental sides and both have high upsides and shouldn't be overly popular.

Tier 2 forward

Roberto Firmino should draw a start, but if he is in the central midfield, he is one Liverpool player that we do not want to use. Therefore, Memphis Depay against Shakhtar Donetsk is my favorite play of the group as a high upside, high usage forward. If Paco Alcacer starts for Dortmund against Monaco, he is the highest goal scorer in the Bundesliga at the moment and AS Monaco are a relegation candidate in Ligue 1. Moussa Marega is a goals-only threat for Porto who I would consider, as well.

Tier 1 midfielder

Gareth Bale has the highest goal scoring odds as a midfielder at home to leaky CSKA Moscow and his teammate Toni Kroos is an equally good play (though he generates his fantasy points through assists, crosses and shots assisted). Christian Eriksen has incentive to attack, cross, shoot and generate extra fantasy points against Barcelona against what should be the Barca B-squad. The biggest differential with upside here is likely Raheem Sterling for Manchester City who does have some incentive to score in this game. If Raz starts, I would expect him to go 90 minutes and score at least once.

Tier 2 midfielder

While he is not likely to be a differential, Nabil Fekir should be the most popular and best play of this grouping. We like Memphis and Nabil as they are some of the best fantasy point producers in the world of soccer, especially against this Shakhtar Donetsk team. James Milner will have set piece and penalty kick duty for a Liverpool team that is likely to need multiple goals to advance. If Marco Reus starts against Monaco, perhaps no midfielder has a better shot at multiple goals as Reus has been the Bundesliga's best player in 2018 and plays a Monaco side that gave up four goals to Club Brugge.

Tier 3 midfielder

If you can sneak a goal or an assist out of your Tier 3 midfielder this week, you're going to be in good shape. Taison is coming off a three-score point performance against Hoffenheim in Matchweek 5 but he has no set piece responsibility, so you are hoping entirely that he creates from the run of play. Marko Marin for Red Star Belgrade takes most of his team's set pieces and could be a viable peripheral-point play but has a tough matchup against Paris-Saint Germain. Saul Niguez and Nabil Bentaleb are my favorite plays sure to be way under the radar in this grouping.

Tier 1 defender

If he starts, I am not even advising a differential. Kieran Trippier is the man that you want. Tottenham must win this game to advance and multiple goals will help their cause. In spots like this, Trippier takes about half of the Spurs' set pieces and turns into a right winger and rarely retreats on defense. Andrew Robertson will similarly be on attack for Liverpool on the left flank against Nikola Maksimovic and could be able to get an attacking return or two. Sergio Ramos could always rack up a penalty kick goal for Real Madrid, as well, but he's not much of a differential.

Tier 2 defender

Similar to Matchweek 5, there is not a clear-cut answer here. Aleksandar Kolarov for Roma is playing for a team that has already qualified, so has no real incentive to attack, but by his nature he is an attacking player. Alex Grimaldo has been one of the best peripheral performers in the UCL this season, but Benfica have been eliminated and are locked into getting third in their group. Porto is also locked into first in their group, but Alex Telles is a purely offensive fullback who takes set pieces and crosses more frequently than any other player at his position per 90 minutes in the top 5 leagues in Europe.

Goalkeeper

The best situation to find yourself in is with a keeper who is on a team who must win against a team who is eliminated. That should give decent equity at a clean sheet while maybe allowing a few quick saves on the counter. Guys who I am considering who can get the clean sheet are Samir Handanovic, Alisson, Hugo Lloris, and Jan Oblak.

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