Real Madrid are the biggest favorites in La Liga this weekend, playing at home against 19th-place Rayo Vallecano. Normally, I'd be filling my fantasy soccer team with lots of Real Madrid players in this kind of scenario, giving it hardly any thought.
But this hasn't been a typical La Liga season, and this isn't a typical Real Madrid team.
Real Madrid are coming off a very embarrassing 3-0 loss at home to CSKA Moscow in the Champions League on Wednesday. Yes, they had already clinched first place in their group, and yes, they rested several regulars. But still, Real Madrid should have done much better against a team that's currently in third place in the Russian league.
Gareth Bale didn't start on Wednesday, but was called upon at halftime with his team trailing 2-0. Bale did very little when he was on the pitch, but I'm still going with him as my Tier 1 midfielder this week, and here's why.
Bale's performance in last week's 1-0 win at Huesca was much more encouraging. Not only did he score his first La Liga goal since September, but he took four shots, and all of them were on target.
Plus Rayo Vallecano have conceded 30 goals, tying them with Huesca for the worst defensive record in the league. I think Bale, in this matchup, is too good to pass up.
Sergio Ramos did not play against CSKA Moscow, so you can't blame him for Real Madrid's woeful defensive performance.
He's still fourth overall, and tops among defenders, in fantasy points on the season. And he continues to be a lock in my lineup as long as he's on penalty kicks.
One Real Madrid player I won't be selecting this week, however, is goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois -- despite the fact I picked him last week, and he delivered a clean sheet and three saves, finishing with 20 points.
Real Madrid looked shaky defensively last week, against last-place Huesca, despite the clean sheet. In fact, Huesca outshot Real Madrid 11-5, and had an expected goals total of 1.10.
And Courtois was one of the regulars who did start against CSKA Moscow, so he deserves some of the blame for conceding those three goals on Wednesday.
Real Madrid have conceded 19 goals in their first 15 La Liga games -- nine teams have conceded fewer. I'm going to look elsewhere for my goalkeeper this week.
No-brainer
Here was Lionel Messi's line from Barcelona's 4-0 win at Espanyol last week: two goals, one assist, five shots, four shots on target, five chances created, 43.1 fantasy points.
Messi's now averaging over 26 points per game, nearly 10 points more than any other player. And Barcelona are the second-biggest favorites of the week, despite playing at Levante.
Messi at Tier 1 forward? Check. Messi as my captain? Check.
However, Marc-Andre ter Stegen won't be my goalkeeper either. You may not be that familiar with Levante, but they are currently in sixth place, just four points behind Real Madrid.
Levante have scored 27 goals in 15 games -- only Barcelona (41) and Celta Vigo (28) have scored more. And Barcelona have conceded 19 goals, as many as Real Madrid, so they're also off to a relatively poor start defensively.
My goalkeeper this week will be Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak, who's the league leader in clean sheets with seven, and is coming off back-to-back clean sheets against Alaves last weekend and Club Brugge in the Champions League on Tuesday. Atletico are solid favorites playing at Real Valladolid on Saturday. Real Valladolid have only scored 13 goals in 15 games.
I was tempted to go with Alaves' Fernando Pacheco, playing at home against Athletic Bilbao. He's averaging nearly two points more per game than Oblak, with 19 more saves. Alaves are one of only two teams unbeaten at home this season, and Athletic Bilbao is the only team winless away from home.
But Athletic Bilbao may experience a new-manager bounce after sacking Eduardo Barizzo and replacing him with Gaizka Garitano. They won their first game under Garitano 1-0 over Girona last week, and even though they only scored one goal and it came via a penalty kick, they took 25 shots, with 10 of them on target, and had an expected goals total of 2.13.
There's a reason why the bookmakers have made Alaves-Athletic Bilbao a pick 'em game, despite the teams' respective home and away forms. That was enough to scare me away from Pacheco.
Other picks
Maxi Gomez, Celta Vigo (Tier 2 forward): Celta Vigo are the second-highest scorers so far in La Liga, as mentioned above, and are favored at home against 16th place Leganes. Gomez scored his eighth goal in 13 games last week, and also has four assists.
Brais Mendez, Celta Vigo (Tier 2 midfielder): I'm going to double up on Celta Vigo, given the matchup and Mendez's recent form. He had a goal and two assists in their 3-2 win at Villarreal last week, and now has four goals and five assists in the past six games.
Junior Firpo, Real Betis (Tier 3 midfielder): He had a poor game last week, but Firpo had scored a goal in three of the previous four games, plus picked up an assist in that time, as well. Real Betis have won four straight games including Europa League fixtures, and will be up against an Espanyol team that has conceded 20 goals in 15 games.
Bernardo Espinosa, Girona (Tier 2 defender): He delivered 13.2 fantasy points last week, thanks in large part to 15 clearances in Girona's 1-0 loss to Athletic Bilbao. Bernardo remains the league leader in that category, and should be plenty busy again this week defensively against a tough Sevilla side.