Football
Gabriele Marcotti, Senior Writer, ESPN FC 12d

Soccer mock draft: Who is No. 1 from stars born in 2002?

Julien Laurens and I came up with the Gab & Juls draft in 2022 as a way to mimic the excitement of the NBA and NFL drafts. Since then, it has grown -- we did a draft for the top 10 players born in 2000, followed by one for the top 20 of those born in 2001 -- and this year, we've gone even further. We moved the draft to April, to coincide with the NFL draft, and invited both Tor-Kristian Karlsen (a scout and former director of football at Monaco) and our colleague Ryan O'Hanlon (a writer and analytics maven) to pit their wits against us.

We went to six rounds and drafted a total of 24 players, with the only eligibility requirement being that these players were born in 2002. We randomized the draft order -- Juls picking first, Tor second, Ryan third and Gab fourth -- and did it "serpentine" style, meaning that the person picking last in a round would then have the first pick in the next round. Following the draft, we have some quick-hit analysis of our picks followed by a review of the 2000 and 2001 drafts to see how well our previous draft classes measure up.

Here we go...

ROUND 1

1. Eduardo Camavinga, MF, 21, Real Madrid

LAURENS: He's an amazing talent. He can play anywhere: midfield, full-back, wide. He's already in his third season at Real Madrid, has already won LaLiga and the Champions League, and has already been in a World Cup final. There's so much more to come from him. He has so much energy and is so mature for his age. There's just nothing not to like.

2. Pedri, 21, MF, Barcelona

KARLSEN: We're going to play it safe here, at least to begin with, so Pedri is the obvious choice. He's already one of the best midfielders in the world, regardless of age. He's had some fitness issues, but you know he is going to be an absolute world star for the next 15 years. There is no way he is letting me down.

3. Josko Gvardiol, 22, DF, Manchester City

O'HANLON: He has already played a ton of minutes at a position where young players typically don't play much. A center-back who's playing a ton at this age is a lot more rare than a winger or midfielder playing at this age, so I expect a ton more production from him.

Maybe he struggled a bit at first in his first season at City, but most center-back/full-back hybrids struggle a bit under Pep Guardiola at the beginning, so that's not a concern for me.

4. Cole Palmer, 21, FW, Chelsea

MARCOTTI: I wasn't a Palmer guy before this season, but now I'm a believer. How can you not be? He's near the top in both goals (25) and assists (13), and he's doing it on a dysfunctional underachieving team [Chelsea] he only joined in late August. I'm going to go against the conventional wisdom that says that because Pep Guardiola let him go at Man City, he has got to be a dud. He has vision, plenty of technique and a good football brain, and he is a lot tougher than he looks.


ROUND 2

5. Simon Adingra, 22, MF/FW, Brighton

MARCOTTI: He dribbles, he gets in the box, he's not afraid to take shots and he has a lot of individual quality. He's still somewhat raw, but I think he has a ton of upside and a brilliant attitude. In the right context, he can really grow into one of the better wide men around.

6. Jérémy Doku, 21, FW, Manchester City

O'HANLON: Happy to stick with the pattern of picking Manchester City players, so I'll go with him since he's already on the best team in the world -- unlike Adingra -- and getting playing time. He has the most expected assists and progressive carries across the Big Five leagues of anyone born in 2002. If you watch him play, you know the physical tools are all there, and the end product is coming along. He has a very high ceiling, and he's already growing at City.

7. Nico Williams, 21, FW, Athletic Bilbao

KARLSEN: There's so much potential here. Maybe he's still somewhat lacking in end product, but talent, physicality, speed, one-on-one ability -- he has it all. He's simply devastating in wide areas. He's obviously getting a move soon, and his transfer value will improve as well.

8. Bradley Barcola, 21, FW, Paris Saint-Germain

LAURENS: The guy can do no wrong in my eyes. He still needs to learn; there's a lot of things that manager Luis Enrique can teach him -- and I will help with that, if asked! But I think he has incredible potential. He showed it in his first season at PSG: he has done really well with all the pressure and expectations despite having had only six months at Lyon before that.

I love the fact he can go both ways, right or left wing -- plus he's a PSG guy, of course!


ROUND 3

9. Nuno Mendes, 21, DF, Paris Saint-Germain

LAURENS: There you go, another PSG player! I'm a little worried about his injury history, but if he stays fit and develops physically, there is an incredible left-back there. Defensively, there are still things for him to work on, but he has all the tools to succeed.

10. Maximilian Beier, 21, FW, Hoffenheim

KARLSEN: OK, this is a bit of a left-field choice, but I have a lot of time for the grafting, hard-working, pressing player. Beier has rectified what was lacking in recent years -- scoring -- and he is coming on in leaps and bounds. He might not be the most talented player from a technical viewpoint, but I have a soft spot for proper hard-working forwards.

11. Piero Hincapié, 22, DF, Bayer Leverkusen

O'HANLON: The only thing that scares me a little bit is he plays in a back three, as central defenders who do well there are sometimes a bit more protected by the formation. If he moves on, he'll probably playing in a back four, but he basically plays every minute for one of the best Bundesliga teams of all time. Plus, he's a central defender, and they have more longevity when they play at this age relative to other positions, and this is a forward-looking exercise.

12. Ryan Gravenberch, 21, MF, Liverpool

MARCOTTI: In every draft there's the guy who was considered a can't-miss superstar at 18 and then, for whatever reason, he just sort of stalls. Guys like that still get picked in the middle rounds, and that's what I'm doing here.

Yeah, he couldn't get into the team at both Bayern and Liverpool, but he's still so young. He has plenty of personality and an all-around skill set that gets people excited. He just needs to find his way again, and I think he will.


ROUND 4

13. Ansu Fati, 21, FW, Brighton (on loan from Barcelona)

MARCOTTI: I'm using similar logic to my previous pick, except in his case we know what went wrong. He got injured -- often, and for a long time. If he stays fit and continues on the trajectory he was supposed to be on, he'll be the best player in this draft by some distance.

I'm hoping he'll be my Gareth Bale: a generational talent at 18 who was badly derailed by injuries for two or three years, only to then turn into one of the best in the world. Bale made 38 top-flight starts before his 21st birthday. Ansu has 35 ... not far off.

14. Destiny Udogie, 21, DF, Tottenham Hotspur

O'HANLON: Out of all the players eligible for this draft, only Camavinga has played more minutes in the Big Five leagues, and playing a lot of minutes at a young age portends future success. But also, Udogie is a modern full-back who comes inside rather than overlapping. That's not an easy skill for a young player, and he's doing it very well. He has been fantastic in Serie A and played a ton this season at Spurs.

15. Lazar Samardzic, 22, MF, Udinese

KARLSEN: I've already established my position as a kind of elitist hipster here, so I may as well just go for it with Samardzic. He's such a quality player, with a magnificent left foot. He's a set-piece taker, he can play in different roles in midfield and has a ton of energy. Most of all, he just strikes the ball so well. Potentially a big, big player.

16. Riccardo Calafiori, 21, DF, Bologna

LAURENS: I was going to go only for French players or France-based players, but I can't do that because I've been so impressed with Calafiori. He can play full-back or central defender, and he has so much personality to go with his quality on the ball. Every time he plays, he stands out.


ROUND 5

17. Enzo Millot, 21, MF, Stuttgart

LAURENS: I love the left foot, the elegance, the swagger, the creativity -- and he also has a very good end product. He's not the tallest or strongest, but he's so intelligent. It's not a coincidence he has been such a key player for Stuttgart this season as they contend for a place in next season's Champions League.

18. Giorgi Sudakov, 21, MF, Shakhtar Donetsk

KARLSEN: No more safe choices for me: I'm going for the guy from the Ukrainian cult club with a huge upside. He's a classic No. 10: so good on the ball, creative, beats his markers for fun. Yes, there are the inevitable Mykhailo Mudryk comparisons despite Sudakov having a slightly different profile, which might scare some big clubs off when it comes to the next move. But every time I've seen him I've been impressed.

19. Amar Dedic, 21, DF, FC Salzburg

O'HANLON: I haven't had my hipster pick yet, so I'm going to tap into the hive mind of probably the best scouting apparatus in the world at Salzburg. He's been an explosive, interestingly lanky full-back. He's good with both feet and has already played a ton at young age which, as you know by now, is one of the main things I look for.

20. Jarrad Branthwaite, 21, DF, Everton

MARCOTTI: He has size and athleticism, and let's face it: there's a premium on English defenders. I like the fact that in addition to his Premier League experience with Everton, he also had a full season abroad on loan at PSV, which many young English players don't get. Despite not being the most gifted on the ball, he's always composed and cool.


ROUND 6

21. Pape Matar Sarr, 21, MF, Tottenham

MARCOTTI: He has had his ups and downs, but he has established himself as a regular on a Champions League-caliber side where the midfielders are called upon to do so much, and he has taken it in stride. He has a good engine, makes good decisions, and has already shown he belongs at this level, unlike many of the guys picked ahead of him.

22. Castello Lukeba, 21, DF, RB Leipzig

O'HANLON: I'm going to be who I am, choosing the guy who has been a starter for three years in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga as a defender and doesn't turn 22 until December. He has the Lyon and Leipzig seal of approval. Plus, if you blindly pick all French center-backs, you generally do OK.

23. Yeremy Pino, 21, FW, Villarreal

KARLSEN: Ryan's strategy is very interesting. Let's see if he has cracked the whole thing with his left-footed center-back policy. Anyway, remarkably, I'm going more conventional here. I'm wary of picking injury-prone players, but if Pino gets back to where he was 18 months ago, he's a top LaLiga player and a truly great talent. He's exciting to watch, his left foot is special, he plays nice combinations and he is a wonderful dribbler. I just want to see him back on the pitch.

24. Otavio, 21, DF, Porto

LAURENS: I'm going to go very left-field with the final pick: the boys have inspired me. I'm picking Otavio from Porto, who has probably played less than anybody else in this draft -- just seven starts in the league this season and two in the Champions League. But every time I see him, I'm impressed. He's strong and composed, he rarely makes mistakes and he rarely fouls anybody.

He can improve on the ball, of course, but if you're looking for somebody with his profile, he's very promising. And he could be the next big transfer out of Porto.


INITIAL DRAFT ANALYSIS

Laurens' picks: Camavinga, Barcola, Mendes, Calafiori, Millot, Otavio

LAURENS: It's pretty clear to anyone who knows football, even just a little, that I have won this draft. I don't have a joke pick like Adingra; I don't have super left-field choices like Beier or Dedic. Instead, I have everything in my draft: talent (lots of it), energy, versatility, huge potential, trophies, experience, flair, physicality, creativity, pace, intelligence, height, technical ability.

Camavinga is already a top player. I picked him ahead of Pedri due to the Spaniard's struggles to stay fit. Barcola has been a revelation in his first-ever Champions League season, Mendes is such a baller, and Calafiori is one of the best defenders in Serie A already this year. Since Thierry Henry told me personally how special Millot is, I had to pick him! And he has been outstanding for Stuttgart and is so beautiful to watch. Finally, Otavio will be one of the next big transfers coming out of Porto. Mark it.

Karlsen's picks: Pedri, N. Williams, Beier, Samardzic, Sudakov, Pino

KARLSEN: I threw tactics and gamesmanship in the bin upon entering the draft. Instead, I just went for the names that I really like: guys with a bit of an edge. As Julien left Pedri on the board, it was a no-brainer: there's no way you can't pick him... I think Gab might agree. While Williams still has some flaws in his game, there's so much to come. Aside from the technical and physical potential, I just love his passion and enthusiasm. And whereas Beier might not be the most glamorous of forwards, now that he's added goals to his industrious game, I see a guy who's going to have a stable career.

Samardzic, however, is a personal favourite: you can see him slotting seamlessly into an elite club soon. Sudakov looks a star in the making yet, I admit, he does remain a punt as the acid test awaits when he moves on from Ukrainian football. I'm also pretty confident that Pino will return to his former self -- aka a Top 10-15 LaLiga performer -- once the injury worries are out of the way."

O'Hanlon's picks: Gvardiol, Doku, Hincapie, Udogie, Dedic, Lukeba

O'HANLON: I came into the draft with a board of 50 draft-able players, based on projections provided by the fine folks at the consultancy Twenty First Group. Gvardiol was No. 1 on my board, Hincapie was fourth, Dedic was sixth, Doku seventh, Udogie ninth, and Lukeba 10th. Although I can't name-drop Henry, I feel pretty good about landing six of my top 10 dudes -- given that there were 24 picks in all.

There's a lack of obvious upside beyond Doku, but center-backs don't usually peak until their late 20s -- later than every other outfield position group -- so I'm happy to have three who have already been consistent starters on Champions League-level teams for multiple seasons. Dedic and Udogie, too, are already starting full-backs for Champions League-quality teams -- and unlike Mendes, they actually play consistent minutes. Finally, while he's no Adingra, Doku has the potential to become one of the best attackers in the world.

Marcotti's picks: Palmer, Adingra, Gravenberch, Fati, Branthwaite, Sarr

MARCOTTI: OK, let me explain the Adingra pick: I had a top tier with five names on it and they were the first four picks. I erased each name as it was picked, but I accidentally erased Doku's name -- he was after Camavinga and unfortunately, he has a short name. So sue me. But I have faith in Adingra.

I think Gravenberch is a calculated risk and won't be Naby Keita 2.0. Ansu is an even bigger risk, but one worth taking because the upside is so big. I think I finished pretty strong. Pape Sarr is already there and isn't going to get any worse. Maybe, with hindsight, Pino was worth the gamble, but I already rolled the dice with Ansu and Gravenberch.

REVISITING OUR PREVIOUS DRAFTS

Want to know how this compares with our previous drafts? Well, we did too, so we asked Tor and Ryan to rate our picks in previous drafts. We also looked at Transfermarkt values for another vantage point -- while far from perfect, it's a decent gauge of popular sentiment.

Draft of players born in 2000

TEAM GAB

  • Phil Foden, FW, Manchester City (2nd overall)

  • Vinicius Jr., FW, Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Jonathan David, FW, Lille (6th)

  • Dusan Vlahovic, FW, Juventus (7th)

  • Sandro Tonali, MF, Newcastle United (10th)

TEAM JULS

  • Erling Haaland, FW, Manchester City (1st overall)

  • Alphonso Davies, DF/MF, Bayern Munich (4th)

  • Aurélien Tchouaméni, MF, Real Madrid (5th)

  • Antony, FW, Manchester United (8th)

  • Sven Botman, DF, Newcastle United (9th)

O'HANLON: I've never been a huge fan of either Vlahovic or Tonali. The former doesn't score that many goals once you exclude penalties, and he doesn't rack up the kind of shot volume that tends to predict future goal-scoring. Tonali is a midfielder who doesn't do much without the ball, and for someone who turns the ball over so often, he doesn't connect on that many high-value progressive-type passes.

That said ... Juls? Antony? What are we doing here? You could've drafted -- I don't know -- Tim Weah or Oliver Skipp, and I probably would've given you the W. Instead, Gab gets the victory for nailing the first two picks and then simply selecting three players whose coaches continue to give them playing time (when they're not suspended).

KARLSEN: I think Gab wins this one by some margin. Cannot argue with Foden and Vini, they're world beaters, and he gets a thumbs-up for Vlahovic, who has continued to deliver in an ordinary Juve side. Juls got Haaland and Tchouameni nailed on, but his score takes a proper knock from having his Broja moment with Antony.

TRANSFERMARKT: Team Gab was worth more at the time of the draft (€370 million to €338m) and is worth more today (€435m to €403m). Juls' team has appreciated slightly more in value in percentage terms, but we have to give it to Gab.

WINNER: Gab


Draft of players born in 2001

TEAM GAB

  • Bukayo Saka, FW, Arsenal (1st overall)

  • Enzo Fernández, MF, Chelsea (4th)

  • William Saliba, DF, Arsenal (5th)

  • Goncalo Ramos, FW, Paris Saint-Germain (8th)

  • Gabriel Martinelli, FW, Arsenal (9th)

  • Mykhailo Mudryk, FW, Chelsea (12th)

  • Manuel Ugarte, MF, Paris Saint-Germain (13th)

  • Armando Broja, FW, Fulham (on loan from Chelsea) (16th)

  • Anatoliy Trubin, GK, Benfica (17th)

  • Nicolo Fagioli, MF, Juventus (20th)

TEAM JULS

  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, MF/FW, Napoli (2nd overall)

  • Rodrygo, FW, Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Moisés Caicedo, MF, Chelsea (6th)

  • Jurriën Timber, DF, Arsenal (7th)

  • Khephren Thuram, MF, Nice (10th)

  • Benoit Badiashile, DF, Chelsea (11)

  • Manu Kone, MF, Borussia Monchengladbach (14th)

  • Santiago Gimenez, FW, Feyenoord (15th)

  • Michael Olise, MF, Crystal Palace (18th)

  • Amadou Onana, MF, Everton (19th)

KARLSEN: Gab's got two genuine world stars in Saka and Saliba, whereas Mudryk still leaves a lot to be desired. I rate Ugarte highly, so I might be a bit biased here, but I'm quite happy with how he's doing at PSG. Broja, what? Didn't see that coming. Credit for picking a goalie in Trubin. Fagioli's betting ventures -- which earned him a ban -- were hard to see coming and shouldn't be used against you, Gab, but between him and Tonali there's a worrying pattern to your picks.

Julien picked a few big guns here. Kvara is a top pick -- ditto Rodrygo, who has probably done better than expected. I also think Olise is a great shout given that he hadn't taken off properly a year ago. I'm less sure about Badiashile's development, though I'm aware of his injury struggles. Onana is also a nice find here, despite Everton being abysmal.

My verdict? Gab picking Broja at 16 probably swung this Julien's way.

O'HANLON: You started off so well, Gab! I thought Juls reached for a couple of early picks -- Timber over Martinelli, huh? -- but then the Mudryk pick? Mudryk? In this economy? I went back to check the date of the draft, and you made the Mudryk pick after his first half-season in the Premier League, when he scored ... [checks notes] ... zero goals. To be fair, Mudryk has been better this season -- up from 0.27 to 0.47 non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 -- but those are still just what I like to call "Scott McTominay numbers."

The Broja pick threw me, too -- 0.29 goals plus assists in nearly 3,000 Premier League minutes ... as a center-forward -- so Juls gets the win based on the value from all of his solid late-round picks. It wouldn't surprise me if Olise and Onana are playing for Big Six Premier League clubs in the near future.

TRANSFERMARKT: Neither of you did quite as well last year. The value of Team Gab has barely increased (€580m at time of draft vs. €583m today), largely because of silly picks like Fagioli, whose ban has seen his valuation crash. But Juls has done even worse. The players he picked were worth €530m when he chose them, and today they're at €507m, with Kone, Badiashile and Caicedo among the biggest drops.

WINNER: Juls. Because, despite what Transfermarkt says, we'll always take humans over machines...

^ Back to Top ^