"The biggest difference [last season] was [Adama] Sanogo," the coach continued. "He led the Big East in scoring. This year, it's all off-ball screening, like the Warriors. Different angles, different guys involved. It allows them to have a lot more space. They're not going inside all the time. Five different guys, sharing the ball, using screens. And they can still throw the ball in the post."
Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban are back as starters from last season's team, and they've both improved dramatically. Newton is the poised point guard who runs the show offensively while Karaban is an X factor given his size and shooting ability. Two other personnel changes are Cam Spencer replacing Jordan Hawkins and Stephon Castle replacing Andre Jackson Jr.
"Cam Spencer might be a little bit better of a college player [than Hawkins]," a Big East coach said. "And he'll be in the NBA for a long time. Spencer just makes so many winning plays ... whether they need a bucket, they need him to get a loose ball."
Castle's emergence in the second half of the season, after missing time early with a knee injury, has provided a boost at both ends of the floor.
"It's his length and size and buy-in to be an unselfish defender," one coach said. "Andre Jackson was a great player, but his lack of shooting could affect them. Castle, you can say the same about, but he's a better fit because he's capable of making a shot and he can play off the bounce and be a point-forward."
UConn, Houston and Purdue have been the three best teams in the country for months, but the Cougars and Boilermakers both suffered losses in their respective conference tournaments. North Carolina has also been near the top of the rankings since it rebounded from a mid-December loss to Kentucky -- though it too lost in its conference tournament.
While the Huskies are the heavy favorites entering the tournament, neither they nor the other three 1-seeds are unbeaten -- so there are at least some weaknesses that could cost them.
There's not much to nitpick. Two of the Huskies' three losses this season came when they weren't at full strength: Castle was out against Kansas, and Clingan got hurt after 14 minutes against Seton Hall. But there are some trends that could come back to haunt them.
"There's one thing that stands out," one Big East coach said. "They foul at an extreme rate. They're 10th in the Big East in fouls committed per game ... Their bench thins, things change. That's big. Clingan can impact the game so much. If he's in foul trouble, they're still good, they can still hurt you, but they're not the same."
One coach pointed out that two of UConn's worst 3-point shooting performances in Big East play were their two conference losses. The Huskies went 4-for-21 against Seton Hall and 3-for-16 against Creighton. Those were anomalies, as UConn led the Big East in 3-point percentage (38.2%) in conference play, but it's something worth watching.
"They can go cold from 3," the coach said. "Sometimes they rely on it too much, but they can go a half making two 3s. But they can obviously really shoot, and their percentages are really good."
Houston Cougars
The last time we saw Houston in action, the Cougars scored 41 points in a 28-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. Unsurprisingly, opposing coaches pegged the offense as a potential trouble spot in the tournament.
"Their offense can have lulls," one Big 12 coach said. "Their offense can disappear at times. There's not a lot of intricacies to it. They get bogged down and if [Jamal] Shead or [L.J.] Cryer can't bail them out late-clock, they can go through droughts without scoring."
Two opposing coaches mentioned that withstanding Houston's early runs and overall physicality is paramount to beating the Cougars.
"They can shell-shock you. But if you don't get shell-shocked by their defense, you can hang around," one coach said. "A Kentucky could give them problems -- super talented, a bunch of NBA players that can space them out. Kansas beat them pretty good when they were healthy -- a team that can really space you out, play multiple shooters and has a lot of talent. They lost to Alabama the last two years -- if you can move the ball, you can pose them problems."
Purdue Boilermakers
The knock on Purdue since its 16-over-1 upset loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in last season's tournament has been the way it deals with pressure at the end of games. Braden Smith turned it over seven times in the FDU loss, but he has been more secure and confident late in games this season. The Boilermakers can still be susceptible to coughing it up, though, and Smith is still one of the few players on the roster capable of handling the ball.
"They have one ball handler," one coach said. "Can you wear him down, can you pressure him? They don't have the same athleticism and quickness that other teams have."
There's also the dream scenario for an opponent: Getting Zach Edey into foul trouble. It rarely happens. Edey didn't foul out of a game all season, and he committed four fouls just four times. In fact, he hasn't fouled out of a game since Dec. 8, 2020 against Miami -- the fifth game of his career.
But if he's on the bench or struggling, that's obviously the best way to beat Purdue.
"It's not talked about, how they foul you out," one coach said. "You're in foul trouble because of him and you can't play your normal game. But if he gets in foul trouble, it's a drastic change."
North Carolina Tar Heels
They haven't been considered in the same tier as the other three teams this season, but the Tar Heels have gone 20-4 since mid-December, including winning eight in a row before falling in the ACC title game. They're much better defensively than in recent years, but when they went through a lull in late January and early February, their problems came on the defensive end.
"It's their on-ball defense and ball-screen defense," one coach said. "You can attack [Armando] Bacot off the ball screen, or if you have a small-ball 5, make Bacot guard in space. Pull him out a little bit and drive by him. You can attack Cormac Ryan, you can attack Elliot Cadeau because of his size. They don't really create any turnovers so you can take care of the ball and get a good shot."
At the other end of the floor, the key is keeping the Tar Heels off the offensive glass and out of transition -- and trying to nullify Bacot. The offense hasn't run through the big man like it has the past couple of seasons, so teams have been able to limit his impact more than in the past.
Slowing down RJ Davis is a different story.
"If you have someone with size, a [6-foot-5] perimeter defender, maybe that could bother him, contain him," one coach said. "But he's terrific, can just really score."
How far can Kansas go with a hampered Hunter Dickinson and without Kevin McCullar Jr.? What about Marquette and Tyler Kolek?
One of the biggest storylines down the stretch of the season was the Jayhawks' injury issues and whether they would regain full health -- and momentum. McCullar missed six of the previous 12 games while managing a bone bruise on his knee, and Dickinson left Kansas' regular-season-finale loss to Houston with a dislocated shoulder and didn't play in the Big 12 tournament.
Kansas is simply not close to the same team without its two best players. The Jayhawks went 3-3 without McCullar and lost by 20 to Cincinnati when both players were out in the Big 12 tournament. They've lost their past two games by a combined 50 points.
While Dickinson will return for the NCAA tournament, Self announced Tuesday night that McCullar is shutting it down and won't play in the tournament.
"McCullar can play in the NBA and Hunter Dickinson is one of the best college players in college basketball," one Big 12 coach said. "You're ... replacing them with guys that are freshmen and guys that have shown to be not very good in the Big 12. ... Without those two, they're less talented than most NCAA tournament teams."
Had both been healthy, the Jayhawks still had the pieces to make a run. Without McCullar, the ceiling is lowered -- the team ranking at EvanMiya.com drops from No. 19 to No. 41 when factoring in his injury.
"When they're healthy, the starting five is as good as anyone in the country," one Big 12 coach said. "You get into the tournament, with long TV timeouts, breaks between games -- if he has everybody, I wouldn't want to play them.
Meanwhile, Marquette fared just slightly better with its star sidelined. The Golden Eagles were 3-3 in the six games Kolek missed, but they did beat Villanova and Providence in the Big East tournament before losing to UConn in the title game.
Kam Jones has been showing out without Kolek, averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 assists and shooting 45.7% from 3 in six games, after scoring at least 31 points in three of the previous seven. When Kolek isn't in the game, most of the offense falls squarely on Jones' shoulders.
"It's a change in playmaking," one Big East coach said. "Kolek with the ball stresses the defense in a major way. He's excellent in two-man games with [Oso] Ighodaro. People commit more help to those actions and it opens up [David] Joplin and Jones as shooters. But with Sean Jones and Kolek out, a straight 2-guard in [Kam] is forced to playmake, score, handle, everything."
Cinderella potential
What about the early-round upsets? The teams that capture the attention of the country before the sun even goes down late Thursday afternoon? We've taken five of the more popular first-round upset picks -- and consulted with ESPN's Giant Killers formula -- before reaching out to coaches on whether these teams will win games this week.
New Mexico Lobos
Why they can be a Cinderella: "If they're locked in, they're better than the teams they're playing. ... It's not like most 11-seeds that have one good guard, maybe two. They have three guys (Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr.) that are legitimately really good and can go get 25 in a game. All three are capable of scoring, they can play in ball screens, they can create for others, they can defend.
"Donovan Dent is an NBA player. He's probably the best finisher in college basketball. Then you add the frontcourt. Nelly Junior Joseph is just OK, but [JT] Toppin is legitimate. He led the league in field goal percentage and rebounding. There's been times when they've underachieved, but when they're humming, I thought they were the best team in our league." -- Mountain West assistant coach
Why they won't be a Cinderella: "They sometimes have one or two too many guys. They've almost been better when one of those guys are out. With what's on the line, though, those guys are going to hoop. They're unpredictable when it comes to sharing the ball. They're going to take 15 shots and it really has nothing to do with the defense. They're an enigma offensively. They're not a great 3-point shooting team -- guy for guy, they don't have good percentages and they're streaky.
"Defensively, I don't think they're great. They have two guys that rebound the ball really well defensively, which helps. In the half court, they're not hard to play against. You have to limit live-ball turnovers, keep them from getting 12 to 20 points in transition." -- Mountain West assistant coach
McNeese Cowboys
Why they can be a Cinderella: "Will Wade can coach. The biggest thing is they have a unique defense in regards to switching. They switch everything, switch to switch-out. They keep you in front. [Antavion] Collum and [CJ] Felder can guard, at least in the Southland. They're never in closeouts. That's the biggest reason I'd say these guys have a chance to upset Gonzaga or make a run. If you're not used to their switching and keeping everything in front, that can be a problem.
"Shahada Wells is really good at reading passes, their switching becomes a de facto matchup zone. They get their hands on balls, they're in the gaps, they throw a 2-2-1 to slow you down. Christian Shumate can crash the glass. They'll be able to rebound with a high-major. And they're top-10 in the country in 3-point shooting. They'll create help and pass it out." -- Southland head coach
Why they won't be a Cinderella: "If Shahada Wells has room to create, he can shoot from 3, he can finish at the rim. It takes a level of physicality with him. Gonzaga might not have that, but physicality could be trouble for him. Keep them off the offensive glass -- and then they also thrive off creating turnovers. After a timeout, they'll change defenses and trap the first pass, just little things to turn your possession into two points for the other team. You have to make perimeter shots against them.
They're in the gaps, so if someone can shoot from 3, that would be an issue. Southeast Louisiana was one team in our league that could make 3s. They made 12 against them. If someone has the shooters to shoot and make 3-point shots, McNeese will struggle." -- Southland head coach
James Madison Dukes
Why they can be a Cinderella: "They can really, really score the ball. ... You can't just prepare for one guy. Their eighth guy can get 20 points on you. If they can get in a rhythm offensively, they can just flat outscore you. They shoot the ball pretty well. If [Noah Freidel] can make five or six 3s, that's when upsets happen.
"They can go on a 10-0 run quick, then five minutes later, a 6-0 run. That can get people. When I saw [they drew] Wisconsin, I thought they could beat them. Wisconsin's turned into a little bit of an offensive team, so they're kind of like them. They're going to try to score early, but they're not going to wow you. They're going to be just as skilled as Wisconsin." -- Sun Belt head coach
Why they won't be a Cinderella: "They're not super physical, they're not going to play above the rim a lot. They gotta have Freidel make those 3s. They don't have another guy who's going to stretch it like that and they're not going to just get paint points against Wisconsin. [T.J.] Bickerstaff isn't going to play above the rim. You can't beat Wisconsin making four or five 3s because they're not going to get enough paint points. They can't beat Wisconsin going 4-for-18 from 3. Terrence Edwards Jr. is a volume guy. He can score the ball, but he takes some not-great shots. They rely a lot on him. He's got the ability to carry them at times, but he also has to trust his teammates." -- Sun Belt head coach
Samford Bulldogs
Why they can be a Cinderella: "They've got a high-major frontcourt. ... Achor Achor and Jermaine Marshall: One was the preseason Player of the Year in our league, the other one could have very easily been the Player of the Year. They have a number of competent offensive players. There's not a ton of drop-off. They can all shoot, they can all pass. And they're all committed to their style.
"Kansas gives up a lot of 3s and Samford ranks top-10 in 3-point percentage. It's all about changing defenses and keeping you off-balance. It's different looks of pressure, it's switching, it's zone. They can do enough to keep you off-balance." -- Southern Conference head coach
Why they won't be a Cinderella: "The million-dollar question is going to be whether they can turn over someone that's superior. Are they going to be able to turn over Power 5 guards? They played Purdue and that was it. They haven't seen this type of player in a long time. They can still win without forcing turnovers, but they're less effective in a half-court setting. In a half-court game, you can beat them. If Dickinson plays, that obviously poses a problem." -- Southern Conference head coach
Grand Canyon Lopes
Why they can be a Cinderella: "They're far more talented than last year. Tyon Grant-Foster is legit. Length, size, gets his own shot off whenever he wants. He's a pro. Everyone else they have in the starting five is really good. [Ray] Harrison is a stud. Solid with the ball, can make a 3. Their last game, they just went high ball-screens with him to finish. Bryce [Drew] is a hell of a coach. They're good on defense too. Physical. [Collin] Moore at the 2 is a really good defender.
"They're a really solid team with some talented guys that can go get a basket. They can win a game or two because they have guys that can play at that level. They have good spacing, they pick their matchups. They're hard to guard in space. They're really good in transition... This is their best chance to win a game." -- WAC head coach
Why they won't be a Cinderella: "I don't think it's a great matchup for Grand Canyon. They won't be able to play free. Saint Mary's makes it tough on everything. They'll make them play in the half-court. Grand Canyon's weakness is their 5-man in ball-screen coverage. That's where Saint Mary's has an advantage, they're so good in their ball-screen coverage. Their 5-man was the Defensive Player of the Year in the league. Grand Canyon gets to the free-throw line a ton, Grant-Foster could get there 10 times. But if Saint Mary's is able to keep them off the free-throw line, that'll be a big part of the game. Saint Mary's is such a unique team. [Gabe] McGlothan hasn't been playing well lately, but he's been a big piece for them for years. He might be an X-factor for them. If he's playing to their potential, it elevates their team." -- WAC head coach
NBA scouts' watch list
Given the narrative that the pool of draft-eligible college players isn't as strong as it's been in recent years, it shouldn't be a surprise NBA scouts aren't overly intrigued by too many first-round personnel matchups.
One head-to-head matchup generating some early buzz is Washington State's Jaylen Wells against Drake's Tucker DeVries. Wells is a junior college transfer playing himself into the pro discussion, while DeVries is one of the most dangerous scorers in the country.
Scouts are intrigued to see how DeVries deals with Wells' 6-foot-8 size on the wing, especially after going 1-for-13 in last year's NCAA tournament and scoring three points in a loss to Miami.
"Wells has shooting and size," one scout said. "He's maybe a two-way player, but the late development is intriguing."
"DeVries' production is noticeable and it's such a skilled era of basketball -- but you have to be able to get yourself free," another scout said. "He's struggled against athleticism."
One NBA scout likes the backcourt battle in a potential first-round matchup between Florida and First Four participant Colorado. On one side is Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr., a former Iona transfer; on the other is KJ Simpson, one of the most productive guards in the country.
"Two kids coming out of high school that were underranked, play like they haven't forgotten it -- and despite not being the face of their programs, I bet each coach would say they're the most indispensable player on their team," one scout said. "Each is getting some draft talk, and a showing on this stage, where they can score and also show they can create for others with efficiency, could be what catapults their names into greater discussion."
Some scouts are looking further down the line for exciting matchups, and the South Region is home to several of those.
"If we get chalk in the South, that would be the best from an NBA perspective," one scout said. "Houston vs. Duke. Those guards against Houston, and [Kyle] Filipowski against toughness. And then Kentucky vs. Marquette. Reed Sheppard vs. Tyler Kolek."
There's a few games involving Arizona that would be worth watching for scouts. A potential Sweet 16 battle against Baylor would see Bears freshman Ja'Kobe Walter line up across from Wildcats wings Caleb Love and Pelle Larsson -- "Can he lock in on defense?" -- and then a matchup against UConn in the Final Four would be loaded with talent.
"Pelle Larsson vs. Steph Castle," one scout said. "Larsson is an older, heady player. Castle has incredible instincts. I think those two, along with Terrence Shannon Jr., are two of the best playmaking wings in the draft."
An under-the-radar head-to-head matchup could occur if Grand Canyon pulls off the upset of Saint Mary's in the first round, resulting in a game between the Lopes and Alabama. It would give scouts a chance to see Tyon Grant-Foster, who averaged nearly 20 points a game this season after collapsing during a game in 2021, go against the length and talent of the Crimson Tide, namely Rylan Griffen.
"Grant-Foster is a mature player, he's athletic, he's shown flashes," one scout said. "The age helps but he's put it together. If he's healthy ... he's a nice bounce-back story."
The four-team pod at the bottom of the Midwest Region has some intrigue on the wing. Colorado State's Nique Clifford went against Virginia's Ryan Dunn in the First Four and will now face Texas' Dillon Mitchell in the first round. The winner of that gets to go against Tennessee's Dalton Knecht.
"It's three guys who can defend with wing size who could theoretically go at Dalton," one scout said. "I'm interested to see how he does against size and athleticism."
A couple of other matchups mentioned by scouts:
South Carolina's Collin Murray-Boyles vs. Oregon's Kwame Evans Jr.
A potential second-round matchup between Wisconsin's AJ Storr and Duke
Auburn's Johni Broome vs. Yale's Danny Wolf
A potential second-round matchup between Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. and BYU's Jaxson Robinson
