Kuhn: Lean Namajunas to win (-220). Given that most of her career statistics were earned at strawweight, we can't assume Namajunas will perform as well against larger opponents -- and so far, she's 0-1 at 125 pounds. Ribas has also switched weight classes, but she has spent more time at flyweight.
Both women use a steady pace of striking with identical accuracy. However, Namajunas has much tighter defense at long range and is also more dangerous with power. I would give a strong lean to Namajunas if this stays standing for a majority of the fight.
The ground game is more even, with both fighters showing up well in grappling statistics. Neither should be a pushover when it comes to submissions, so this position may cancel out. I'm aligned with the current market: "Thug" Rose takes two out of three rounds with her cleaner and more dangerous striking.
Parker: Namajunas to win. If Namajunas hopes to make a title run at 125 pounds, it all starts with a potential win over Ribas. In her last fight, Namajunas had trouble finding her rhythm and lost a decision to Fiorot.
Stylistically, this fight favors Namajunas. Ribas has taken a lot of damage in her three UFC losses and she had to come from behind to get the win in her last bout after almost being KO'd early. I have a hard time seeing where Ribas wins this fight, as Namajunas is better no matter where the fight goes, and we have seen Namajunas knock out her opponents in the past.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Heavyweight: Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa
Parker: Williams to win (-190). A different Tafa, but the same game plan for Williams. Williams is a very athletic heavyweight with good wrestling and even better cardio. If Tafa doesn't land early and get rid of Williams in Round 1, he will be rag-dolled around the cage and potentially finished on the ground. Williams is not the most exciting fighter by any means, however he is smart and knows how to win fights. He doesn't veer off the clear path to victory. Look for Williams to wrestle immediately and take away the power of Tafa.
Featherweight: Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal
Kuhn: Slight lean on Zalal to win (+120); over 2.5 rounds. This fight is more of a head-scratcher, with a slight lean toward the younger underdog. Quarantillo has faced better talent and is more familiar to bettors. Zalal returns to the UFC after a string of losses led to his release from the promotion in 2022.
We again have a fighter in Quarantillo with a severe defensive liability of poor head strike defense -- likely the worst in the division. Zalal is an accurate striker with a reach advantage, and he might benefit from this dynamic.
The ground game is too close to call. Both are eager to attempt takedowns, but below average at landing them. The net effect is that they are both average on the ground. Zalal should at least make this a competitive fight and force a decision. He could even score more points through Quarantillo's porous standup defense.
Men's bantamweight: Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson
Parker: Gibson to win (+130). Johns is stepping in on short notice, but somehow he is still the betting favorite. I don't see what the oddsmakers see in Johns. His last win, which was one of his more impressive ones, was overturned to a no contest due to a failed drug test. On top of that, Gibson will have huge reach and cardio advantages over Johns.
Unless Johns lands a Hail Mary KO punch on Gibson -- who has never been KO'd -- Gibson will outpace Johns and tire him out. Take the underdog or pass here.
Featherweight: Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa
Kuhn: Ramos to win (-160). This matchup shows clear advantages for the betting favorite. Ramos is not only much younger, but has a variety of statistical advantages.
Ramos owns nearly a clean sweep in grappling metrics, being more likely to initiate and land takedowns and more likely to be in ground control. If he chooses to make this a wrestling match, he'll have the upper hand.
If Ramos keeps it standing, the defensive liabilities of Erosa are the most glaring statistics in the matchup. Erosa has extremely low head strike defense and has been knocked down eight times in his UFC career. Combine that with Ramos' high knockdown rate, and the striking matchup favors Ramos as well.
Heavyweight: Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin
Parker: Parkin to win (-140). This will be Parkin's toughest test to date, but the odds are at a good number where we don't have to take a method of victory here. Parkin is the better striker and has a submission game if the fight were to go to the mat. In the past, we've seen Usman wrestle his way to victory but gas out as the fight goes on. Parkin has good enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing and will have the better cardio to dictate the pace of the fight.
Parker's best bets for Bellator Champions Series Belfast
Light heavyweight title fight: Corey Anderson vs. Karl Moore
Anderson to win (-440). It's now or never for Anderson at this point. He got extremely unlucky in his first fight against Vadim Nemkov; he was winning the bout but it ended in a no contest due to a clash of heads. In the rematch, Anderson dropped a decision. Anderson should have the advantage no matter where the fight goes here. Unless he gets dropped early by Moore, Anderson should be able to use his striking to set up his wrestling and claim his first world title.
Featherweight title fight: Patricio Freire vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Kennedy to win (-115). "Pitbull" is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. He has never had an issue with cardio, but at age 36 and coming off a brutal Round 1 KO loss in his last fight, you don't see many fighters bounce back successfully. Kennedy is well-rounded and might be catching "Pitbull" at the right time to unseat the champion. Look for Kennedy to use his strikes to close the distance and then his wrestling to dethrone Bellator's golden boy.
Middleweight: Fabian Edwards vs. Aaron Jeffery
Jeffery to win (+108). Edwards's three-fight winning streak came to a screeching halt in September when he was on the receiving end of a KO loss to middleweight champ Johnny Eblen. Edwards now takes on Aaron Jeffrey in a No. 1 contender fight.
Edwards has to control the pace of this fight and land on Jeffrey early. If the fight goes to the mat, he needs to utilize his top game. We saw Jeffrey struggle to fight off his back against John Salter at Bellator 293. However, if Edwards can't score takedowns, Jeffrey can score the upset. Jeffrey is coming off an impressive performance against blue-chip prospect Dalton Rosta. Jeffrey showed tremendous durability and was able to push the pace to tire his opponent out. If Jeffrey can keep the fight standing, he can get the win.
