Judging overreactions to 2024 NFL free agency deals, trades

The next time you think we're overreacting during the NFL season, you need to remember how things can be in the middle of March. A frenzied week of signings, cuts and trades has reshaped every NFL roster (well, except the Cowboys) and led to some of the more breathless takes we'll see all year.

So we here in the Overreactions Department decided this would be a good time for an emergency special edition. Let's judge some of the biggest potential takeaways from free agent signings and other big roster moves of the past week and see which are legit.

The Bears misread the market on Justin Fields

The Bears had been dangling Fields in trade talks since they found out they would have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, courtesy of the Panthers. Early in the offseason, we thought Chicago could get a second-round pick for Fields. Well, on Saturday the Bears shipped him to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-rounder.

The list of quarterbacks who were traded this offseason before Fields includes Mac Jones, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett. The Patriots sent Jones to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. The Commanders moved Howell to Seattle for the equivalent of a late third-rounder. The Falcons flipped Ridder to Arizona for receiver Rondale Moore. And Pickett went from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia in a Friday afternoon pick swap. There was a market for quarterbacks whose teams no longer saw them as starters, but the Bears didn't drop their demands early enough to maximize their return.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

When the offseason began, it wasn't too wild to think that some team might view Fields as its 2024 starting quarterback. Had that been the case, a second-rounder was feasible. But it has become clear that no team does right now, and the Bears reached the point where they had to decide between holding Fields through the offseason and hoping the market improved or taking what they could get and avoiding the potential mess of having him and a No. 1 pick rookie (likely USC's Caleb Williams) on the roster together.

The Bears lost a lot of leverage because of the minimal market and the leaguewide belief they were planning to replace Fields. GM Ryan Poles talked about doing "right by Justin" at the combine, and Chicago appears to have made a move that meets that goal. Waiting might have turned out to be the better move for the roster long-term, but cutting ties now at least allows the Bears to move on into the future without any offseason awkwardness.

Derrick Henry will put the Ravens over the top and into the Super Bowl

Baltimore made a big splash with the signing of Henry, the powerful former Titans running back who rushed for 12 touchdowns in 2023. The run-game threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson combined with the might of Henry looks like a terrifying combination for opposing defenses. The Ravens went right to the precipice of the Super Bowl this past season, earning the top seed in the AFC and losing in the conference title game to the Chiefs. But this seems like a move that could make the difference if they find themselves in that AFC Championship Game again this coming season.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Nothing against the Henry move, which I like a lot. But for me, the story of this Ravens offseason is more about what they've lost than what they've added. It started with three defensive coaches departing -- coordinator Mike Macdonald (now Seahawks head coach) and assistants Anthony Weaver and Dennard Wilson (defensive coordinators in Miami and Tennessee, respectively). Both of last season's starting guards were free agents, and one (John Simpson) has already signed with the Jets. (Kevin Zeitler remains available.) Starting linebacker Patrick Queen is a Steeler. Safety Geno Stone is a Bengal.

There are going to be a lot of changes for the Ravens this season, mainly on defense. And in a division in which every team had a winning record and three made last season's playoffs, I think the Ravens might actually end up taking a step back in 2024.

The Kirk Cousins signing makes the Falcons a legitimate Super Bowl contender

Atlanta landed the biggest prize of the negotiating window, signing Cousins away from Minnesota with $100 million in guaranteed money he'll see over the next two years. The Falcons' quarterback play last season was so bad that new coach Raheem Morris joked about it in his combine news conference, saying it's the reason he has the job.

Adding Cousins, who was one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2023 before his season-ending right Achilles injury, to a skill position group that includes high first-rounders Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts should, the theory goes, unlock this offense and take it to a new level. The offensive line is good and paid like it. The Falcons can turn their offseason/draft focus to the defense now. They should be set up to catch the Buccaneers for the NFC South division and be a factor in the playoffs, right?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Cousins is going to be 36 years old in August, and as I mentioned, he's coming off a season-ending Achilles injury. He also has never been past the second round of the playoffs in any of his 12 NFL seasons.

We have high hopes for the Falcons' young offensive stars because they were high draft picks, and we've seen flashes of greatness from all of them, but we haven't seen sustained success. And that doesn't usually just show up in one season. The coaching staff and quarterback are new. And the Bucs, by the way, had a sneaky good week bringing back receiver Mike Evans, quarterback Baker Mayfield and the core of a team that has won this division the past three years.

I like Atlanta to be improved with Cousins under center, but I'm not putting them in a class with the 49ers, Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC until I see it.

The running back market is BACK!

One of the predictions I made heading into free agency that turned out to be the most wrong was about the running backs. I thought this market would be slow. The same factors we've talked about with the position are still present, telling teams not to spend big on the position, and I thought the sheer number of big-name free agent backs this offseason would slow things down even further. More supply, same (lack of) demand, right?

Well, wrong. The first day of the negotiating window was RB-heavy, with D'Andre Swift signing in Chicago, Josh Jacobs going to Green Bay, Tony Pollard joining Tennessee, Zack Moss heading to Cincinnati and the big one, Saquon Barkley jumping from the Giants to the Eagles. (Henry went to Baltimore the following day.) Jacobs got $12.5 million guaranteed! Pollard received $10.5 million guaranteed! Barkley managed $26 million guaranteed! It's 1996 all over again!!! Running back is the new edge rusher!

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Barkley cleaned up, don't get me wrong. From what I'm told, the Texans were offering eight figures per year (and no state income tax) and the Eagles had to go to $13 million annually if they wanted him. His deal is a massive win on a level we really haven't seen for a running back since Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott were signing extensions in Carolina and Dallas a few years ago.

But the rest? I don't know. The Packers are only really committed to Jacobs for a year. Swift's deal pays him a total of $16.5 million in the first two years, of which $14 million is guaranteed. Pollard's guarantee is $10.49 million, including $3 million in 2025. Solid deals all around, but in no way market-movers.

If every team hadn't found about $13 million in salary cap money a week and a half before free agency (when the cap came in much higher than expected), I'm not sure anything would have been different this spring. And it's certainly possible these teams look back on these deals as overpays -- yes, even the Saquon contract. Heck, maybe especially the Saquon contract. It's a better offseason than running backs have had in a while, but that's about all we can say for it.

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The Texans are a real threat to the Chiefs in the AFC

The debut seasons of quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans were a massive hit. The Texans chased down the Jaguars to win the AFC South and beat the Browns in the first round of the playoffs. They headed into the offseason with full steam, ready to build on their 2023 success and construct a championship roster around Stroud while he's still in his rookie-contract window.

Set up with plenty of cap space, they've acted both aggressively and judiciously so far in free agency. They gave free agent defensive end Danielle Hunter a whopper of a two-year, $49 million contract with $48 million fully guaranteed. They also flipped a seventh-round pick to the Bengals for running back Joe Mixon, signed defensive lineman Denico Autry, re-signed wide receiver Noah Brown and made a couple more smart additions on the defensive side of the ball. It was a good week for the Texans following a very good season.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Why not? We saw the Bengals knock off the Chiefs and advance to the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow's second year, and they were not even close to a playoff team in his first (when the quarterback suffered a season-ending left knee injury). If things all come together for Ryans, Stroud & Co. in 2024, how big of a stretch is it to imagine they could have a similar level of success?

They kept their coaching staff intact, Stroud is a good bet to improve in the offseason on the parts of his game that need improvement, and the Texans roll into 2024 with a tremendous confidence born of their 2023 success. The division is winnable, and they look like they should be its best team again. Pencil in the Texans as a real AFC contender in 2024.

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The Broncos will have the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2025

When the Broncos designated quarterback Russell Wilson as a post-June 1 release, they were deciding to split his $85 million dead-money cap hit over the next two seasons. Usually when this happens, the larger portion hits the cap in the second year. But because of the option bonus structure in Wilson's deal, the Broncos had the ability to take $53 million in dead money this year and $32 million in 2025, which is what they did.

Absorbing the bulk of the dead money this season indicates that the plan, at least in part, is to treat 2024 as a rebuilding season and head into the 2025 offseason with as much cap space as possible. Denver also released safety Justin Simmons and traded receiver Jerry Jeudy.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Moving on from Wilson could be an addition-by-subtraction move, given the way he played in his two seasons in Denver. (He was 21st in QBR last season at 50.7, and that was actually an improvement from his 27th-ranked 38.7 in 2022.) But there's still that NFL-record $53 million in dead money sitting there inhibiting the Broncos' ability to sign more free agents.

The only two quarterbacks on their roster at the moment are Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, and there's no guarantee they'll be able to find their answer in the first round of the draft, way back at No. 12. It's not at all out of the question that the Broncos go into the season with Stidham as the starter. They paid him good money to come in last season as Wilson's backup and named him the starter late in the season when they finally benched Wilson. Coach Sean Payton might want to take a look at Stidham and see how he does or doesn't fit into the future plans.

But especially if the culling of the roster Payton inherited isn't done yet, and if the Broncos decide to trade away more players at the deadline in the fall, this shapes up as a long season in Denver.

The Broncos aren't the only team in this discussion by any means, though. The Chargers had a rough week of high-profile losses, and their cap situation could mean a long first season for Jim Harbaugh in L.A. The Panthers finished with the worst record last season and have a first-time head coach and a second-year quarterback who hasn't shown anything yet. They added a lot of key talent, but they also traded away the best player on their defense in Brian Burns.