NFL should adopt seeded tournament

The NFL's conference-and-division format is a handy way to organize schedules and rivalries, but does not reward success. A seeded tournament would reward success. College basketball also has conferences and divisions to organize regular-season play, then uses a seeded postseason tournament. The result is excitement. Why doesn't the NFL shift to this model?

Since the NFL-AFL merger, there have been 36 teams that failed to make the playoffs despite a better record than a team or teams that made the playoffs the same year.

In 2008, 11-5 New England did not make the playoffs while 9-7 Arizona hosted a postseason contest. In 1985, 11-5 Denver was shut out while 8-8 Cleveland got in. In 2010, 10-6 Jersey/A did not make the postseason while 7-9 Seattle hosted a playoff game. In 1991 two 10-6 teams, Philadelphia and San Francisco, did not make the postseason as 8-8 Jersey/B did. In 2007, 10-6 Cleveland was shut out while two 9-7 teams were allowed in. Lack of seeding also leads to absurd results such as, in 2010, when 12-4 Baltimore opened on the road while 7-9 Seattle opened at home, or in 1999, when 11-5 Buffalo opened on the road while 9-7 Seattle opened at home.

A seeded NFL playoff format would reward success and increase excitement. Dynamics would change, of course. Had one been in effect this season, Green Bay would have been eliminated before Week 17, though Kansas City would have been playing to win. Seeding would reward fans of the best teams with home playoff contests. Seeding would reward the national television audience by showing the best teams facing each other at the last.

Here is the argument against an NFL seeded playoff: "But the way we do it is the way we've always done it!"

Here is what the playoff field would look like, if seeding were in effect. (To avoid spending hours running tiebreaker scenarios, I used net-points differential. A seeded format would use head-to-head and common-opponents as tiebreakers.)

Bye teams in order of seeding: Denver, Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco.

Opening round:

San Diego (9-7) at New England (12-4)

Arizona (10-6) at Cincinnati (11-5)

Philadelphia (10-6) at Kansas City (11-5)

Indianapolis (11-5) at New Orleans (11-5)

Considering the NFL format is what it is and 8-7-1 Green Bay hosts a playoff contest -- remember when the Pack was invincible at Lambeau Field after New Year's Day? Back in the day, Green Bay ran up a 13-0 home postseason streak. Since then, the Packers are 3-4 at Lambeau in the playoffs. During the 13-0 home streak, Green Bay allowed an average of 11 points per game. Since then, going 3-4 at home in the postseason, the Packers have allowed an average of 25 points.

But then offense rules, and resistance is futile. Turns out 2013 was the highest-scoring NFL season ever. Teams averaged 23.4 points per game, besting the 23.2 number set in 1948, when spread tactics made their first appearance. The Broncos were hardly the only reason. Had the Broncs scored at the rate of last season's highest-points team, New England, the 2013 season still would have set the record, at 23.3 points per team per game. That means it wasn't only Denver that was spinning the scoreboard.

There are worrisome signs for Broncs fans. One is that Peyton Manning is 9-11 during his career in the playoffs. More important, high-scoring teams tend to fade late, as defensive intensity cranks up. None of the eight highest-scoring teams since the merger won the Super Bowl: five failed to reach the final game. The team whose total-points record Denver just bested, the 2007 Patriots, averaged 37 points in the regular season, faded to a 23-point average in the playoffs and, on the final day, scored just 14 points while losing the Super Bowl.

TMQ's Authentic Games metric ends the regular season by predicting a Super Bowl of Denver (six authentic wins) versus New Orleans (five). Cincinnati also recorded five authentic wins; Arizona, Carolina, Indianapolis, San Francisco and Seattle posted four. Though my own metric predicts Denver versus New Orleans in the swamps of Jersey, that outcome seems unlikely -- my bet is the Broncos fade while a Saints-Seahawks playoff contest, if one occurs, would be held in Seattle, conferring the edge on the Bluish Men Group. So maybe my Authentic Games metric is nuts. But last season at this juncture, it projected Baltimore to reach the Super Bowl, and that seemed pretty unlikely.

See below for TMQ's playoff capsules, and for my Happy New Year's wish. Check that -- for my New Year's bah humbug!

Stats of the Week No. 1: Cincinnati, New Orleans and Seattle finished a combined 23-1 at home.

Stats of the Week No. 2: Indianapolis won its final three games by a combined 78-20.

Stats of the Week No. 3: The Packers are 6-2 with Aaron Rodgers and 2-5-1 with anyone else.

Stats of the Week No. 4: Nick Foles, who started the season as a backup, finished with 27 touchdown passes versus two interceptions, and a 119.2 rating. Joe Flacco, who started the season as reigning Super Bowl MVP, finished with 19 touchdown passes versus 22 interceptions, and a 73.1 rating.

Stats of the Week No. 5: Jeremy Kerley of Jersey/B finished with 523 receiving yards, which ranked 86th in the league -- and first on the Jets.

Stats of the Week No. 6: New England is on a 20-1 streak versus Buffalo; Pittsburgh is on an 19-2 streak versus Cleveland.

Stats of the Week No. 7: The Lions opened 6-3 and closed 1-6, failing to hold fourth-quarter leads in all late-season losses.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Cleveland had at least 10 losses for the sixth consecutive season.

Stats of the Week No. 9: Needing one victory to reach the playoffs, Miami lost its final two games by a combined 39-7.

Stats of the Week No. 10: Needing one victory to reach the playoffs, defending champion Baltimore lost its final two games by a combined 75-24.

Sweet Series of the Week: Leading 21-20 at Atlanta, the Carolina Panthers, stout on defense and sputtering on offense, had the Falcons facing second-and-3 with three minutes remaining. Carolina sacked Matt Ryan on consecutive snaps, forcing a fourth-and-18 punt. The Cats went on to victory and a bye week in which to contemplate their 16-4 streak.

Sour Play of the Week: In the late slot, a San Diego win would put the Bolts into the postseason; a San Diego loss would put the Steelers in. Pittsburgh faithful were steaming that Kansas City, which had already locked its best seed, resting many starters, sending in the junior varsity. Pittsburgh faithful were gnashing their teeth and rending their garments when the Chiefs missed a field goal to win at the end of regulation. San Diego should have been called for illegal defensive formation, granting Kansas City five yards and another try. As of 2013, there can't be more than six on either side of the center against a field goal attempt. The NFL has admitted the no-call was an error. Imagine if the replacement refs had done this!

Now facing fourth-and-2 in overtime against the Chiefs' practice squad, the Chargers went for it: lining up in punt formation but direct-snapping to the upback. He made the first down, then fumbled; the loose ball was scooped up by a Kansas City player who returned it for a touchdown, Kansas City wins and the Steelers get the final playoff card! Officials ruled the ball dead by forward progress, a judgment call that cannot be reviewed. The Bolts would win by a field goal.

Kansas City rolled over -- its choice to make -- then an officiating error plus a debatable zebra decision put San Diego into the postseason. Sour indeed for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sour 'N' Sweet Play: Green Bay leading Chicago 13-7 in the third quarter of a winner-take-all, the Packers faced third-and-1 and threw a short slant, incomplete, rather than rush against a Chicago defense that allowed 5.4 yards per rush, worst in the NFL. Then Green Bay punted on fourth-and-1 rather than run against that same defense. The football gods punished the Packers by allowing Devin Hester a long return, followed by a Chicago go-ahead touchdown on the possession.

Now it's Chicago leading 28-27 late in the fourth quarter. Green Bay faces fourth-and-1 on its own 22: rush, convert. Then Green Bay faces fourth-and-1 on its own 44: short stop pattern to the sure-handed Jordy Nelson, convert.

Next Green Bay faced fourth-and-8 at midfield. Three consecutive fourth-down attempts have been super-short; the Bears expect something super-short. On the fourth-down conversion to Nelson, he stopped at the line-to-gain; corner Zack Bowman stopped there too. Now Green Bay puts two wide receivers left. One stops at the line-to-gain, in front of Bowman, who again stops there. Chris Conte, the safety on that side, runs toward the receiver stopping at the line-to-gain. Randall Cobb, the slot receiver, heads deep and immediately raises his hand -- Conte should have had Cobb, and instead Cobb is uncovered. Conte made the high school mistake of looking into the backfield trying to guess the play, rather than guard his man. With the 48-yard touchdown reception by Cobb, the Packers take the division and Chicago is eliminated.

Pro Bowl Animadversion: This season's Pro Bowl roster is more proof of TMQ's contention that offensive linemen are invited to Hawaii based on reputation, not performance -- which means even NFL coaches and players don't know who the best offensive linemen are. Trent Williams of the Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons, a highly hyped tackle who was fourth overall selection in his draft year, made the Pro Bowl despite having such a bad season that Persons coaches debated whether to bench him. Check film of the San Francisco at Washington game, Williams was awful. Eric Wood of Buffalo didn't make the Pro Bowl: for TMQ's money, he was the best center in the league in 2013. (No one from the Buffalo offensive line made the Pro Bowl, though the Bills were second in the league in rushing despite a revolving door of no-name quarterbacks, which means the blocking was good.) Zane Beadles of the Broncos, for TMQ's money the best guard in the league in 2013, didn't make the Pro Bowl, though both guards for the Saints did.

Discounting the kicking teams, here are the Pro Bowl players who were undrafted:

Jason Peters, Eagles (made the Pro Bowl as an offensive linemen despite never playing this position in high school or college)

Marcel Reece, Raiders

Mike Tolbert, Panthers

Brent Grimes, Dolphins (played for Shippensburg in Division II)

Cameron Wake, Dolphins (got his start in the CFL)

Vontaze Burfict, Bengals

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! The eight-man blitz rarely is seen because it's like handing the opposition a card that says, "Please score a touchdown." Minnesota leading Syracuse 17-14 with 1:21 remaining in the Texas Bowl -- which should be Texas Presents the Texas Bowl Sponsored by Texas -- the Orange faced third-and-8 on the Gophers' 12. The best outcome for Minnesota is to hold on this down, force a field goal and then use the remaining minute, plus the team's two timeouts, to try for a field goal to win.

Instead Minnesota brought the rare eight-man blitz, with double overloads on both sides. That left no one defending the middle: Syracuse quarterback Terrell Hunt went up the middle to the end zone untouched, putting the Orange ahead by four, and of course you know who won. Even if the blitz had created a loss of yardage, Syracuse still would have been in good field goal position -- thus Minnesota wagered losing the game, against a gain of little. Ye gods.

Maybe Robots Are Writing the Scripts: The new Fox series "Almost Human" posits that in the year 2048, cyborg cops will be required because, as a voiceover intones in the pilot, "crime has increased an astounding 400 percent." Four hundred percent compared to what -- to 2013, to 2047? Thirty-five years in the future, people still don't understand statistics.

The atmospherics are strictly "Blade Runner" -- lots of noodle shops and other Asian touches, floating neon advertising, constant rain. "Blade Runner" was a 1982 film set in 2019, about the same amount of time into the future as "Almost Human," and also involved lifelike cyborgs. Traditionally Hollywood has over-estimated the rate of future advances into space. In "Blade Runner," it's 2019 and humanity has already been to war in distant star systems. The 1966 television pilot for "Star Trek" states that the "Canopus planet" was colonized in 1996, and that by 2050, an American starship had reached the edge of the galaxy, some 25,000 light years away. Then in the 1967 episode that first gave viewers Ricardo Montalban as the sinister Khan, the Enterprise encounters a spaceship "built in the late 1990s" that has traveled a fair distance into the galaxy. Star Trek writers of the 1960s thought warp drive would be invented during the Clinton administration!

Say this for "Almost Human," there's no overestimation of space progress. It's the year 2048 and hardly anything has changed, except for cyborgs. Nothing going on in outer space. People talk exactly like they do now -- language hasn't evolved a bit. Cops still report for duty carrying coffee cups that obviously are empty. The show's protagonist, a detective played by Karl Urban (new, improved McCoy in the "Star Trek" reboot), walks into the precinct house holding a Starbucks-style cup sideways. Why don't directors point out to actors that they should hold coffee cups as though they were full of hot liquid? Hold empty suitcases the prop department provides as if they were heavy?

Lots of other things will be the same in 2048. Cops still never have any paperwork to do, just engage in gunfights in which hundreds of rounds are fired, then make a few wisecracks and go out for drinks. They still argue about who gets to drive. (Won't Google be controlling all cars by 2048?) During buddy-bonding conversations in the car, the scenery projected on the window still rolls by at a steady pace, as if there were no stoplights or traffic. Bad guys who are shot still die instantaneously, while good guys are never hit anywhere but in the arm, and it's still always a "through and through," which still is depicted as merely a scratch. (TV producers seem to think if a bullet enter one side of the body and exits the other, that means it did no damage; no more than a little gauze is needed.) Most important, buildings still have air shafts that heroes can crawl through.

Urban plays the lead -- in 2048, every police force still needs a tough-guy detective who ignores the rulebook -- but the best lines go to Michael Ealy, who portrays a cyborg sidekick. Consistently in celluloid, robots are more interesting than people. In "Star Wars," R2D2 and C3PO had the most personality; in last year's big-budget "Prometheus," the cyborg played by Michael Fassbender had a more interesting personality than any of the people. Brigette Helm stole the 1927 movie Metropolis as the Maschinenmensch. Why is it that writers can give more complicated motivations to robots than people?

A supporting role on "Almost Human" is held by actress Minka Kelly, who was Lyla on "Friday Night Lights." That series led to stardom for Taylor Kitsch (Riggins) and Connie Britton (the principal); Eric Taylor, Jesse Plemons and Michael B. Jordan from the show have done well. But there seems a "Friday Night Lights" Curse for young women who had important parts. Kelly was expected to become a heartthrob star, but her career has gone nowhere since she was associated with the 2011 attempt to reboot "Charlie's Angels," a prime-time fiasco canceled after four episodes, which was three too many.

Adrianne Palicki, who played Dillon High's whore-with-a-heart-of-gold, likewise was expected to become a star, but has been mired in B-movie supporting roles since being cast as the lead in the 2011 remake of "Wonder Woman," an NBC series so bad it was canceled before the first episode aired. The "Wonder Woman" remake was significantly worse than what the networks are willing to show -- that's a mind-boggling thought.

Denver's Own Personal Stats Item: The Broncos set the season scoring record; Peyton Manning set the season passing-yards and touchdowns-thrown records (although that's under review ), Manning throwing for exactly one yard more than Drew Brees in 2011, holder of the previous record, then leaving the game. Denver kicked 75 extra points, compared to Jacksonville kicking 22 extra points.

Blur Offense Takes Its Time: Philadelphia, leading 17-16 at the end of the third quarter, reaches first-and-goal on the Dallas 6, facing the league's worst defense. Chip Kelly sends in Brad Smith to run a trick play, the "gunslinger" pass back to Nick Foles. Smith was a fine college quarterback, but hasn't completed a pass in three seasons: on his career, a mind-numbing 20 percent of his passes have been intercepted. At least this pass wasn't intercepted.

Next Foles throws incomplete, failing to notice DeSean Jackson standing uncovered in the left flat for what should have been an easy touchdown. Kelly had a college-style deep sprint motion going all game; this was the one time it resulted in an uncovered man, but Foles didn't notice. Then Jackson catches a slant to the 1, setting up fourth-and-goal on the 1 against the league's worst defense. Kelly is known for spiffy goal-line plays, but instead this is just a power-formation quarterback sneak, no misdirection. The play is stuffed.

So Philadelphia couldn't score on first-and-goal from the 6 against the league's worst defense. But the Nesharim held on to win and now will host a playoff contest -- a fitting conclusion to a regular season that ought instead to lead to a seeded postseason bracket.

The Case Against Corporate Boards: During the 2010 period when she was under consideration to become chancellor of the New York City school system, Cathleen Black filled out some disclosure forms -- and revealed she was being paid about a half million dollars a year just to sit in on some corporate board meetings for Coca Cola and IBM.

Corporate board memberships are among the greatest hustles in American commerce. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that large public corporations pay their directors a median of $244,000 annually, plus lavish benefits, merely to sit in on occasional meetings, often held at luxury resorts.

In theory, corporate boards exist to police management and protect shareholders, ensuring management doesn't loot the company at shareholders' expense. In practice, many boards are rubber stamps that let management get away with anything. The 2011 book "Money for Nothing," by John Gillespie and David Zweig, estimated that the typical public-company board awards 10 percent of the annual dividend pool to the CEO, regardless of his or her performance. It is nearly unheard-of for a corporate board to oppose lavishing a windfall on the CEO -- because any corporate board member who opposed CEO pay would be dismissed, losing access to his or her own hefty payday for doing next to nothing.

Shareholders could revolt against lapdog corporate boards. But since even the most excessive board deals work out to a few cents of a major company's share price, only those who hold huge blocks of stock have an incentive to fight corporate-board corruption. That's why two recent developments are encouraging.