Pat McManamon's pick: The Browns rank third in the league with 14 interceptions and fourth with a plus-10 turnover ratio. They forced no turnovers in Houston, the same day that Newton threw four interceptions against Tampa Bay. Turnovers make the difference in this game, at home. Browns 28, Panthers 20
FPI win projection: CAR, 59.8 percent. The Panthers are favorites in this game, according to FPI, but will need to reverse recent trends to get the win. Over the past four weeks, the Panthers are 0-4 with the second-worst defensive efficiency (19.4) in the league, while the Browns have the second-best offensive efficiency (82.3) in that same span.
What to watch for in fantasy: Four of the past five starting quarterbacks to face the Panthers have scored at least 22 fantasy points. Baker Mayfield should have several paths to success through the air on Sunday. Read more.
In case you missed it: Newton says repaired shoulder bothering him ... Picks no cause for concern for Mayfield, Browns ... Rivera, Panthers will have to look over their shoulders rest of season ... Panthers, Browns exemplify importance of quarterback stability
Giants (4-8) at Redskins (6-6): 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Point spread: NYG -3.5 | Matchup quality: 26.4 (of 100)
Jordan Raanan's pick: The Giants have won three of four out of the bye week, and Odell Beckham Jr. thinks they are playing "very, very well." In comparison to the first time these teams met in late October, he's probably right. The Giants allowed seven sacks in that loss to the Redskins, and their improved offensive line has allowed just 10 in the four games since. With the Redskins also decimated by injuries, this will hardly resemble that first meeting. Giants 23, Redskins 16
John Keim's pick: The Redskins are two games ahead of the Giants and still have a shot at the playoffs, but they don't look like a legit playoff contender. There's a chance that Sunday they will be without six of their projected starters for the season, with their third quarterback in Mark Sanchez signed less than three weeks ago, and their third set of starting guards. The Redskins are crawling to the finish line. Giants 24, Redskins 14
FPI win projection: WSH, 53.3 percent. The Redskins had a 53 percent chance to make the playoffs prior to their current three-game losing streak, but they'll really need to beat the Giants this week in order to keep their slim hopes alive. Washington is not favored in any of its final three games after this one by FPI and would have just a 7 percent chance to make the playoffs with a loss (31 percent with a win).
What to watch for in fantasy: The Giants' defense is showing some signs of life lately, with the league's fifth-highest turnover rate on a per-drive basis, and now it faces Sanchez. Read more.
In case you missed it: Will QB Lauletta's 'progress' eventually lead to playing in a game? ... From start, Redskins' offense never had lineup they envisioned ... RB Barkley's rookie season compares with the all-time greats ... Smith's injury should make Redskins think about drafting QB
Jets (3-9) at Bills (4-8): 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: BUF -3.5 | Matchup quality: 14.4 (of 100)
Rich Cimini's pick: This is a bad matchup for the Jets. Sam Darnold is coming off a one-month layoff, which means he'll be rusty in the first cold-weather game of his life. Buffalo's zone-based defense will cause problems for the Jets, who have only three offensive touchdowns in the past five games. Bills 23, Jets 12
Mike Rodak's pick: The Bills are favored by Vegas for the first time this season, and for good reason: They walloped the Jets 41-10 with fill-in quarterback Matt Barkley last month at MetLife Stadium. I would expect some regression by Josh Allen, whose 83.6 Total QBR in his two games since returning from an elbow injury has exceeded his 53.0 mark for the season. But the opportunity still exists for Allen to have another big game against a Jets defense that has given up an NFL-worst 450.7 yards per game since (and including) its loss to Buffalo. Bills 26, Jets 20
FPI win projection: BUF, 71.5 percent. After being favored just once in their first 12 games of the season, the Bills are favored in three of their final four games by FPI, with a 71.5 percent chance to win against the Jets on Sunday. That is the largest favorite the Bills have been since Week 1 of last season, when they were 75 percent favorites, also against the Jets.
What to watch for in fantasy: The Jets' blitz-happy defense should create some lanes for Allen to exploit via scrambling, while a blend of vertical passing and designed running plays helps support a fun ceiling, if unstable fantasy floor, for Allen. Read more.
In case you missed it: S Adams has old-school work ethic with 'new-school swag' ... Ex-Bills QB Peterman no failure to 1970s counterpart ... Slumping Jets want payback against Bills: 'It's personal'
Bengals (5-7) at Chargers (9-3): 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: LAC -14 | Matchup quality: 50.2 (of 100)
Katherine Terrell's pick: No Andy Dalton, no A.J. Green and the league's worst defense going up against one of the top offenses in the NFL. None of that bodes well for the Bengals, whose season spiraled downward after the bye. The Bengals fared badly when facing other top offenses such as the Saints and Chiefs. It's hard to imagine this one will go any better on the road. Chargers 34, Bengals 21
Eric D. Williams' pick: The Bengals face a tough task competing short-handed on the road with Jeff Driskel making his second career start at quarterback. Look for the Chargers to lean on Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson and the running game, with the Bengals giving up a league-worst 153 rushing yards per game. Chargers 27, Bengals 10
FPI win projection: LAC, 90.3 percent. Philip Rivers is third in the NFL with a 75.6 Total QBR this season, just shy of his career best 77.2 in 2009. He has actually performed better on the road (84.9 Total QBR) than at home (66.2 QBR) this season, but that gap could close this week against a Bengals team allowing the second-highest Total QBR in the league (66.3).
What to watch for in fantasy: Ekeler could be in line for a big week with a great matchup against the Bengals' run defense. Read more.
In case you missed it: With RB Gordon out, Justin Jackson rescues Chargers' run game ... Not concerned about touches, TE Gates focused on Super Bowl chase ... Lewis not expecting assurances from Bengals about future ... QB Driskel's first NFL start a mixed bag
Broncos (6-6) at 49ers (2-10): 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: DEN -5.5 | Matchup quality: 27.1 (of 100)
Jeff Legwold's pick: The Broncos have their work cut out for them after injuries to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Still, Denver has won three in a row to climb back to 6-6, and linebacker Von Miller said, "We're tried and tested ... we're a humble team.'' But it's really all about the rookie class now, especially on offense, where running back Phillip Lindsay as well as wide receivers Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton will have a big say in whether the Broncos make the playoffs. Broncos 27, 49ers 20
Nick Wagoner's pick: The Broncos are banged up, and this could be the Niners' best chance at another victory this season. But San Francisco lacks the playmakers the Broncos have on defense. Denver is tied for seventh in the league in takeaways (21), and the Niners are on a record-setting pace for futility in that category with only five. The Niners will see Miller and Bradley Chubb up close in this one, the latest reminder of their greatest need. Broncos 23, 49ers 17
FPI win projection: DEN, 59.5 percent. The Broncos enter this game at 6-6 but still have an outside shot at the playoffs, as they are favored in three of their final four games by FPI and have a 12 percent chance to win out (best among the seven 6-6 teams). Denver will need to win this one to keep its chances alive though; the Broncos would have a 26 percent chance to make the playoffs with a win and just a 7 percent chance with a loss.
What to watch for in fantasy: Denver is a bottom-seven defense in terms of both running back rushing yards and yards per carry surrendered. Jeff Wilson Jr. will be filling in for Matt Breida this week and is a massive value. Read more.
In case you missed it: RB Lindsay powering Broncos' playoff run ... Without CB Harris, Broncos will again turn to a rookie ... Your move, Raiders: 49ers jump to lead in race for top draft pick ... TE Kittle an emerging star regardless of who is at quarterback ... Without CB Harris and WR Sanders, Broncos must lean on youth
Eagles (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5): 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Point spread: DAL -3.5 | Matchup quality: 58.5 (of 100)
Tim McManus' pick: The Eagles are starting to win more in the trenches, which has helped fuel back-to-back victories. Coach Doug Pederson is trusting his ground game more now that the offensive line is getting healthy, allowing Carson Wentz to do what he does best -- execute out of play-action. Wentz set career highs in attempts and yards off play-action last week against Washington and looked like his old self running bootlegs attached to those type of plays. Defensive end Brandon Graham, meanwhile, is starting to round into form. The defensive front has taken a step forward as a result, and should be able to put some heat on Dak Prescott. Eagles 26, Cowboys 23
Todd Archer's pick: Prescott will never be defined by statistics, but he will be defined by wins. When Prescott doesn't throw an interception, the Cowboys are 26-5. In their four-game winning streak, he has four touchdown passes and no picks. The Eagles' secondary has been beset with injuries and has just six interceptions all season. Only three teams have fewer. If Prescott continues his mistake-free ways, the Cowboys will effectively knock out the defending Super Bowl champions from repeating as division winners. Cowboys 24, Eagles 20
FPI win projection: DAL, 67.2 percent. The two teams with the biggest potential playoff swings in Week 14 face off in this game. FPI sees this as a must-win game for the Eagles, as they would have a 53 percent chance to make the playoffs with a win and a 5 percent chance with a loss. The Cowboys would see their chances shoot up to 98 percent with a win and drop to 57 percent with a loss.
What to watch for in fantasy: Upgrade Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup against the defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season. Read more.
In case you missed it: Randy Gregory: 'I was just in a real bad place' ... As Ertz chases Witten's record, a friendship comes into focus ... Philly's Kamu Grugier-Hill offers first jab in Eagles-Cowboys trash-talk fest ... C Frederick: Unlikely to return in 2018 but think I'll play in '19
Steelers (7-4-1) at Raiders (2-10): 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Point spread: PIT -11 | Matchup quality: 40.8 (of 100)
Jeremy Fowler's pick: The Steelers are 0-3 in Oakland during the Ben Roethlisberger era, missing the playoffs all three of those years. But these Raiders are too outclassed to make it a fourth. Roethlisberger will have ample time in the pocket against a defense that has 10 sacks, and facing Oakland's 31st-ranked rushing defense will ease the transition for fill-in tailbacks Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley. With the Patriots and Saints awaiting, the Steelers know they can't lose this one. Steelers 34, Raiders 20
Paul Gutierrez's pick: Oakland is the only place Roethlisberger has yet to win a road game in the AFC. The Steelers are scuffling, with two straight losses, and the Raiders' offense is starting to hum. Something has to give, right? Steelers 33, Raiders 31
FPI win projection: PIT, 73.5 percent. Big swings are in play for both teams in this game, according to FPI, but for very different things. The Steelers would have an 85 percent chance to win the AFC North with a win and 58 percent chance with a loss. The Raiders would have a 38 percent chance at the top pick in the draft with a loss and just a 5 percent chance with a win.
What to watch for in fantasy: If you want to play the old "fade Big Ben on the road" narrative, go ahead. However, this season, there hasn't been much difference between his results at home and on the road. Read more.
In case you missed it: RB Conner still has time to finish storybook season ... RB Samuels ready for Steelers close-up with James Conner out ... Has RB Martin earned a contract with the Raiders for 2019?
Lions (4-8) at Cardinals (3-9): 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Point spread: DET -2.5 | Matchup quality: 2.8 (of 100)
Michael Rothstein's pick: The Lions haven't won in Arizona since 1993 -- the last time Detroit won a division title. No NFC North crown is in the picture for the Lions this season, but Detroit has a chance in what should be a low-scoring game. Josh Rosen has struggled (although the Lions had major issues with the last rookie quarterback they faced, Sam Darnold), and as bad as the Lions have looked at times, the Cardinals have been worse. This game won't be pretty, but Detroit is the better team, has the better quarterback and largely has been better than Arizona. Lions 17, Cardinals 13
Josh Weinfuss' pick: The Cardinals are coming off a win in Green Bay, and that high might just carry over Sunday against the Lions, who have lost five of their past six games. Arizona can secure its fourth win by exploiting Detroit's run defense, which has allowed 119.8 yards per game. The Cardinals ran for 182 against the Packers. Cardinals 21, Lions 17
FPI win projection: DET, 55.9 percent. Rosen enters this game with the lowest Total QBR (30.7) among qualified QBs this season. He'll have a chance to improve upon that against a Lions defense that ranks fourth worst in Total QBR allowed (62.5) and second worst in defensive efficiency this season, according to FPI.
What to watch for in fantasy: Patrick Peterson has shadowed Davante Adams, Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill on their perimeter routes during the past four weeks. Kenny Golladay will escape to the slot on 30 percent of his routes, which is some much-needed good news, as Arizona is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the slot this season. Downgrade him to fringe WR2 territory. Read more.
In case you missed it: Ten seasons in, what to make of Matthew Stafford and his future ... How free-agency failures put the Cardinals in a deep hole
Rams (11-1) at Bears (8-4): 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Point spread: LAR -3 | Matchup quality: 84.4 (of 100)
Lindsey Thiry's pick: The Rams have clinched the NFC West, but travel to Chicago motivated to earn a first-round bye. The Bears' defense will provide the high-scoring Rams their greatest test yet: Chicago ranks fourth, allowing an average of 20.1 points per game, and it leads the league in interceptions with 21. But after a sluggish offensive performance against the Lions, look for the Rams' offense to bounce back and for Aaron Donald to prove why he reset the market for defensive players, even though Khalil Mack is now the highest-paid defender in the league. Rams 24, Bears 17
Jeff Dickerson's pick: The Bears will benefit from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's return from a right shoulder injury, but the Rams' offense is downright scary. Los Angeles is averaging almost 35 points per game. The Bears score an average of 28.7 points per game, still good enough for fifth best in the league, but the Bears simply don't have as much firepower as the Rams. Expect the Bears to stay within striking distance on Sunday night, but in the end, the Rams just have a few more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Rams 30, Bears 24
FPI win projection: LAR, 56.4 percent. This is the top game of the week based on FPI's matchup quality metric. It features the Rams' second-ranked offense in terms of efficiency (85.5 on a 0-to-100 scale) against the Bears' top-ranked defensive unit (75.3). Jared Goff ranks fifth in the NFL in Total QBR this season, while the Bears have allowed the lowest opponent Total QBR in the league.
What to watch for in fantasy: Perimeter corners Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara are good players, but offenses have been forced to attack them often, which has led to Chicago allowing the most fantasy points to outside receivers over the past month. The door is open for Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds to fill the box score. Read more.
In case you missed it: It's time to start talking about Donald for MVP ... Donald and Mack: $177M and worth every (guaranteed) penny ... DE Fowler Jr. proving to be the edge presence Rams needed
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Vikings (6-5-1) at Seahawks (7-5): 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Point spread: SEA -3 | Matchup quality: 63.9 (of 100)
Courtney Cronin's pick: Six wins in 12 games isn't what many projected for this team, but the hardest part of Minnesota's season is almost over. If the Vikings can steal a game in Seattle, where they're underdogs, they're back in the playoff hunt. The Vikings will need to pound the ball with Dalvin Cook and have defensive discipline against Russell Wilson, who is having a career season. Kirk Cousins recently halted his prime-time woes with a win over Green Bay, and he'll look to do the same on Monday Night Football, in which he's 0-6 in his career. Seahawks 27, Vikings 23
Brady Henderson's pick: Minnesota ranks fifth in yards allowed per rush (3.7) and seventh in rushing yards allowed per game (99.2), which makes this a matchup of strengths. As much as the Seahawks are committed to running the ball, they showed two weeks ago in Charlotte that they can switch gears and win a game by throwing it when they have to, even when their defense has an off day. All six of the Vikings' wins (and their tie) came against teams currently .500 or worse. Sure, the Seahawks have beaten up on their share of bad opponents, but they're playing at home, where they're 15-2 in prime-time games under Pete Carroll. Seahawks 31, Vikings 24
FPI win projection: SEA, 65.5 percent. As is the case with all teams on the edge of the playoff race, a lot is riding on this game for the Vikings. A win on the road would see Minnesota's playoff chances jump all the way to 90 percent according to FPI, while a loss would put them at 57 percent.
What to watch for in fantasy: This is Wilson's toughest matchup yet, against a Vikings defense that has been extraordinarily stingy against the passing game of late. Read more.
In case you missed it: Zimmer's biggest coaching challenge with Vikings lies ahead ... 'Exquisite' QB Wilson making most of his opportunities ... LB Wagner's reminder: Seahawks' defense still has star power
