Super Rugby semifinals preview: storylines, team lists, tips

Christchurch and Johannesburg play host to this weekend's Super Rugby semifinals, hosts the Crusaders and Lions in the box seat to reprise their final showdown from 2017.

The Waratahs and Hurricanes, seeded No.3 and 4 respectively, will have to create a piece of history themselves if they're to reach the decider. For the Waratahs, that means winning a first ever playoff game on the road while the Hurricanes must upset a Crusaders side who've never been beaten in finals match at home.

Tough assignments, the pair of them.

Crusaders vs. Hurricanes, AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 5.35pm (AEST), Saturday

They may have only led by six points at halftime, but the Crusaders were never in any real trouble against the Sharks last week. The defending champions stamped their authority on the match early on, running in two tries off the back of Ryan Crotty breaks. While the South Africans enjoyed the better of the proceedings in the second quarter, the Crusaders powered away with three tries after the break. Their only real concerns were a wayward lineout and a head knock to Seta Tamanivalu, though they have plenty of cover in the outside backs should he not recover.

Well below their best since the June break, the Hurricanes were gifted the ideal start at home last week when Damian McKenzie floated a long pass that was picked off by Julian Savea inside 45 seconds. The Chiefs twice managed to draw level, but following the example of the dogged TJ Perenara the Hurricanes pulled away in the final quarter and never relinquished the lead. Serious concerns surround their defence, though, reflected by the 42 missed tackles and 23 clean breaks they conceded at home in their quarterfinal win.

How the Crusaders win it

The record says it all: the Crusaders have never lost a finals match at home. They are a perfect 20 from 20 and, importantly, have limited the opposition to no more than 13 points in the last eight of those fixtures. Providing they shore up the lineout, the Crusaders have a wonderful ability to strike from set-piece and are blessed with a stacked bench to finish strongly should the contest still be in the balance late on. Their all-round game is simply too good while few sporting teams on the planet have the same confidence in their abilities as the Crusaders do now. Dominate through the middle, as they have all year, and deny Beauden Barrett a famous attacking performance, and the Crusaders will be off to a 12th final.

How the Hurricanes win it

The one thing the Hurricanes can draw on is the fact they are one of only two teams to defeat the Crusaders this season. What they'll want to forget is how they went to Christchurch on a wet night the week before the June break and very little went right; the Hurricanes never really troubled a Crusaders side that was without automatic selections Owen Franks, Joe Moody, Kieran Read, Ryan Crotty, Jordan Taufua and skipper Sam Whitelock. The Hurricanes will want as dry a night as possible at this time of year but they simply must front up through the forwards. If they can get some sort of platform, then Barrett and co. can at least attempt some attack further out. The other focus will be "game management" which falls directly to Barrett and Perenara; coach Chris Boyd wasn't at all happy with that in Christchurch last time around.

Line-ups

Crusaders: David Havili; Seta Tamanivalu Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge; Richie Mo'unga, Bryn Hall; Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Jordan Taufua; Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett; Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Reserves: Andrew Makalio, Tim Perry, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Pete Samu, Mitchell Drummond, Mitchell Hunt, Braydon Ennor.

Hurricanes: Nehe Milner-Skudder; Julian Savea, Jordie Barrett, Ngani Laumape, Ben Lam; Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara; Blade Thomson, Gareth Evans, Brad Shields; Sam Lousi, Michael Fatialofa; Jeff Toomaga-Allen, Ricky Riccitelli, Toby Smith. Reserves: James O'Reilly, Chris Eves, Ben May, Vaea Fifita, Ardie Savea, Reed Prinsep, Jamie Booth, Ihaia West, Wes Goosen

Verdict: The Hurricanes pack, while mobile, doesn't quite have the same punch as their Crusaders counterparts. The eight-time champions are just too strong at home as well, and will win this one by eight points.

Lions vs. Waratahs, Ellis Park, Johannesburg, 11.05pm (AEST), Saturday

The Lions finally look like the team they've promised to be over the last few years. They beat the Jaguares in the playoff by going back to what has worked for them. They played with tempo, their forwards were powerful and some of their back play was simply outstanding. Playmaker Elton Jantjies stepped up with a flawless display, while Malcolm Marx manhandled the Argentine side at the breakdown. But this weekend they have to do it all over against at Waratahs side that have finally found some fight.

The Australians finally clicked into gear with an unbelievable comeback-win over the Highlanders in their playoff. They suddenly found that belief which the big names in the team needed to find to showcase their quality. The Waratahs have a team brimming with talent, and they have found that little bit extra which will give them a real chance in Johannesburg on Saturday afternoon. It's always a tough ask to play the Lions at altitude, but the Waratahs will genuinely feel they that have more than just a good chance to conquer the Highveld.