The 2026 AFL home and away season has arrived, so it's time to project the win total over/under for each of the 18 teams.
Unsurprisingly, back-to-back reigning premier Brisbane is expected to enjoy the most success this year, with bookmakers setting its win total at 15.5, the same as last year's runner-up Geelong and expected riser Gold Coast. On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest expected win totals have been set for West Coast and Richmond at 3.5 and 4.5, respectively.
So, who will hit the over? Who will fall under? Jake Michaels analyses every side and makes his bold predictions for the upcoming season.
Adelaide
2026 win line: 14.5
Premiership odds: $13
Play twice: Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Richmond
The most recent thing we witnessed is always what seems to remain in our minds, but perhaps we should be taking a much wider view when it comes to the Crows. This side may have bombed in finals last season, but we simply cannot forget it was the biggest riser of the year, jumping from the bottom four to the summit of the AFL ladder. The Crows finished the home and away season with an 18-5 record -- including going 12-1 at Adelaide Oval -- and although it will have to navigate a tougher draw in 2026, all signs indicate Matthew Nicks' squad will once again be in contention for a top four berth.
Projection: OVER
Brisbane
2026 win line: 15.5
Premiership odds: $5
Play twice: Geelong, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Sydney, Carlton, Essendon
If you scan the Lions' fixture you'll find it extremely tough to pick any game this club could lose, let alone eight of them! Of course, a perfect season is incredibly unlikely, even for this talent-packed squad, but winning 16 games seems close to a formality for a team that's averaged 15.4 wins across the last five home and away seasons and and now has inarguably its strongest list of the Chris Fagan era. With Brisbane eyeing a rare threepeat, which would cement its legacy as an all-time legendary team, there's little to no risk this club lacks hunger in 2026, which could make the Lions look close to unbeatable at times.
Projection: OVER
Carlton
2026 win line: 9.5
Premiership odds: $41
Play twice: Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Richmond
There are sure to be many who are incredibly bearish on Carlton's 2026 prospects after losing the likes of Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning, and Jack Silvagni during last year's trade and free agency period, but the club has finally addressed its depth issue and is set to welcome back a host of clear best 23 players from long-term injuries. The Blues won nine games last season in what was widely viewed as a catastrophic campaign that really couldn't have gone much worse. From that incredibly low bar, just one more win would be required for Michael Voss's side to clear their 2026 breakeven. Surely!
Projection: OVER
Collingwood
2026 win line: 13.5
Premiership odds: $18
Play twice: Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Carlton, West Coast
The Magpies have been heading towards a cliff for the past 12-18 months. Craig McRae's side remains the oldest in the competition, with nine players aged over 30 and 15 aged at least 28. On the other end of the age spectrum, only two under 25s (Nick Daicos and Beau McCreery) have notched 40 games. The bottom is inevitably going to fall out, and it could very easily be this year, with Collingwood set to navigate the third-toughest fixture. And to those who want to remind me the Magpies featured on preliminary final weekend last season, don't forget it ended the home and away season on an uninspiring 3-6 run.
Projection: UNDER
Essendon
2026 win line: 7.5
Premiership odds: $81
Play twice: Brisbane, Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne
If the Bombers have been consistent with one thing in recent times it's the ability to fade out of a season and disappoint its fans. Last year, Essendon failed to win a single game after the mid-year bye and lost three times by 90+ points. It was a similar story the previous year where the Bombers ended the season on a 1-6 run. Now, what must be acknowledged is the ridiculously lengthy injury list the club has dealt with over the past 24 months. Brad Scott's side should be around the 7-9 win range in 2026, but given it almost never finds a way to beat any top 10 team, I'm leaning ever so slightly towards the under.
Projection: UNDER
Fremantle
2026 win line: 14.5
Premiership odds: $15
Play twice: Geelong, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Melbourne, West Coast
The Dockers were a popular pick for 'biggest riser' ahead of season 2026 and Justin Longmuir's squad didn't disappoint, at least not in the home and away season. Fremantle overcame a sluggish start to build an impressive 16-7 record, including finished the year on a 12-2 run. The club then lost a heartbreaking home elimination final to the Suns, but that loss has meant the Dockers avoid the tougher fixture this season, and will enjoy two games against the likes of likely bottom 10 clubs Carlton, Melbourne, and West Coast. With the core of this squad still developing, there's no reason to believe Fremantle would be set to take a step backwards in 2026.
Projection: OVER
Geelong
2026 win line: 15.5
Premiership odds: $10
Play twice: Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Fremantle, North Melbourne
Would I be surprised if the Cats won the flag this year? Not really. Year after year, Chris Scott continues to find a way for his side to not only be competitive, but among the handful of legitimate premiership contenders. But don't underestimate just how tough it is to amass 15.5 wins in a season, especially when you have the toughest fixture in the league! For reference, this line is the same as back-to-back premier Brisbane! Plus, there's the Grand Final curse. For those unfamiliar, teams that have lost a Grand Final by 40+ points have not won a final the following year since 1995, only highlighting how difficult it is to back up from a blowout on the last Saturday in September.
Projection: UNDER
Gold Coast
2026 win line: 15.5
Premiership odds: $9
Play twice: Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne
I could basically copy and paste everything I just said about the Cats and how difficult it is to win 16 games. And you know what, it's even more relevant for the Suns, who have literally never in club history won 16 games in a single home and away season. Last year, Gold Coast enjoyed its most successful campaign, notching a 15-8 record and then travelling to Optus Stadium and knocking off Fremantle in an epic elimination final. The good news? Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan have been added to the fold. The bad? The Suns have the second-hardest fixture of all. This one is incredibly tough to pick, and one game will likely decide it, but I'm going with my gut.
Projection: OVER ... just
GWS
2026 win line: 12.5
Premiership odds: $21
Play twice: Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Sydney, St Kilda, Essendon, West Coast
At full strength, the Giants have a top three list in the competition. But unfortunately for Adam Kingsley's side, they will enter season 2026 a mile away from fully fit. Star midfielder Tom Green is set to miss the entire year after rupturing his ACL last month, while Sam Taylor, Finn Callaghan, Toby Bedford, and Darcy Jones, among others, are all set for an early stint on the sidelines. But aside from Green, all will be returning at some point, and if history is any indicator, this side has the depth to stay afloat in the meantime. With the fourth-easiest fixture, the Giants should be winning at least 13 games for the fourth consecutive season.
Projection: OVER
Hawthorn
2026 win line: 14.5
Premiership odds: $9
Play twice: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Essendon
Perhaps we're making far too much of it, but Hawthorn's inability to get a deal done this past offseason for Essendon star Zach Merrett could prove to be incredibly costly. The Hawks appear to be on the doorstep of success, but with James Worpel having moved to the Cats and Will Day set to miss a significant chunk of the year through injury, the midfield suddenly looks incredibly thin. Having said that, the club has a top three coach in Sam Mitchell, an A-grade defence led by skipper James Sicily, and it's managed to escape a catastrophic fixture. For me, this is the toughest line to pick, as I'm convinced the Hawks win 13-16 games.
Projection: OVER
Melbourne
2026 win line: 8.5
Premiership odds: $67
Play twice: Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond
The Demons have been in freefall over the past 24 months, winning just eight of their past 29 games, parting with 2021 premiership coach Simon Goodwin, and, most recently, losing superstar midfielders Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Adding to the midfield woes is the long-term injury to Jack Viney, who was given a generous 12-week timetable after undergoing surgery on his Achilles tendon. Sure, Melbourne has been blessed with a favourable fixture, but does anyone really believe this club is taking a step forward and winning at least two more games in 2026 to clear the over?
Projection: UNDER
North Melbourne
2026 win line: 7.5
Premiership odds: $101
Play twice: Geelong, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast
If not now, when? The Kangaroos have been perennial cellar dwellers for what seems like forever, but after stacking elite talent after elite talent at the draft, the club should -- a major emphasis on should -- now be ready to rise up the ladder. But can they win at least eight games? I'm not at all convinced. May I remind you this club has won just 20 games over the past six seasons! Last year's percentage of 76.3%, combined with the diabolical match simulation against the Demons last month, only proves just how far off the pace Alastair Clarkson's side still is ahead of season 2026.
Projection: UNDER
Port Adelaide
2026 win line: 9.5
Premiership odds: $51
Play twice: Adelaide, Sydney, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, West Coast
Everyone seems to be incredibly down on the Power after last year's woeful season, one that yielded just nine wins and a shocking percentage of 79.8. To make matters worse, star midfielder Zak Butters appears to be an odds-on favourite to depart the club at season's end. But we're not yet at season's end and Butters is currently a contracted Port Adelaide player. This side will also welcome back several players from long-term injuries, most notably Todd Marshall. With an opening month against the Kangaroos, Bombers, Eagles, and Tigers, the Power could very easily be 4-0 and needing just six wins from its final 19 games to hit the over.
Projection: OVER
Richmond
2026 win line: 4.5
Premiership odds: $151
Play twice: Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast
The Tigers somehow won five games last season, but don't forget, many had predicted they could actually go winless in 2025, highlighting just how dire the club's prospects appeared to be. Despite those wins, things haven't improved that much in 12 months, with Adem Yze's side still easily the youngest and most inexperienced team in the competition and only really still in the infancy of its rebuild. Even if Richmond splits its games against likely fellow stragglers West Coast and North Melbourne, where are the other three wins coming from that would see the club replicate last year's total and hit the over?
Projection: UNDER
St Kilda
2026 win line: 12.5
Premiership odds: $18
Play twice: Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Sydney, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Richmond
After spending big during the past off-season, just about everyone has declared the Saints a certain finalist this year. But are the additions of Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan, and Sam Flanders enough to guarantee this side wins at least four more games than it managed last year, a total that would be at least the club's equal-best year since it reached the 2010 Grand Final? Call me a skeptic, but I have some serious reservations. I'd also like to remind you the Saints had an unsustainable 5-1 record last year in games decided by nine points or fewer. If there's any reversion to the mean, those 13 wins will look a long way away.
Projection: UNDER
Sydney
2026 win line: 14.5
Premiership odds: $10
Play twice: Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne
After reaching the Grand Final in 2024, and entering last year as a bone fide premiership contender, the Swans sensationally missed out on a place in September. It wasn't by a narrow margin, either. Sydney finished the home and away season in 10th place, three wins (plus percentage) outside of finals. Much like the Blues, things couldn't really have gone much worse, and yet the Swans still found a way to sing the song 12 times, including eight times from their last 11 games. With Charlie Curnow now on the list, Errol Gulden back to full fitness, and the club enjoying a far friendlier fixture, top four, and 15-plus wins, is certainly on the cards this year.
Projection: OVER
West Coast
2026 win line: 3.5
Premiership odds: $151
Play twice: Collingwood, Greater Western Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Richmond
You could set the Eagles' win total at any number above 1.5 and you'd probably still feel far from confident the over would be hitting. This club is in the midst of a generational lean patch -- to put things lightly -- and there's nothing to suggest things are about to take a turn for the better any time soon. If you had taken the under on 3.5 wins in each of the last four seasons, you'd have been correct three times, including last year where West Coast managed just a solitary win for the entire campaign and suffered 12 losses by at least 40 points. There's an argument to be made the Eagles are more likely to go winless than notch four wins in 2026.
Projection: UNDER
Western Bulldogs
2026 win line: 13.5
Premiership odds: $15
Play twice: Hawthorn, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne
Ask any football fan how they reckon the Bulldogs have fared over the last two seasons and they'll probably tell you they've underperformed. Perhaps that's true. But did you know they've won 14 games in each of the past two home and away seasons, which would be enough to hit the over this year? Luke Beveridge's side still has some defensive issues, but with a forward line led by Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton, don't be surprised if the Bulldogs have the most potent attack in 2026. Last year, the club averaged 108 points per game, do that again -- or something similar -- and you're easily clearing 13.5 wins, particularly with a very favourable end to the season.
Projection: OVER