Alaska and Meralco will duke it out on Friday for the final playoff spot in the 2019 PBA Commissioner's Cup where the winner gets the unenviable task of taking down league leaders TNT in the quarterfinals.
This will be the second straight conference that the Aces will figure in a do-or-die match, having knocked out NLEX three months ago in the Philippine Cup to gain entry into the playoffs. The Bolts, on the other hand, are on a mission to avoid missing the first round of the midseason tournament for the first time since 2011.
"They have been struggling, but maybe not as much as us," Meralco coach Norman Black said of Alaska. "We have new life. Just about last Saturday, we were pretty much dead. So at least we're breathing new life right now."
"In my belief, one of the pillars of things that we build on is honor the game. If you got a chance, you honor it and you play hard," Aces coach Alex Compton, pertaining to their knockout game. "And we got a chance. So it might be a small chance, it might not be a big chance, but you got a chance. You gotta leave it all out there."
How did they get here?
This conference hasn't been friendly to Meralco and Alaska as each went through their own five-game slumps during the latter part of the Commissioner's Cup.
Meralco would have gone on an early break if it didn't stun the streaking San Miguel last Wednesday for a final shot at the eighth seed.
"We actually looked a lot better last game against NorthPort. That was one of our better games of the conference, actually, even though we lost it. We had a chance to win down the stretch. But it was good to see the improvement of the team over the games before that," Black said.
Alaska, on the other hand, would have been already preparing for the quarterfinals if it managed to stop the Elite. Instead, the Aces are searching for their first win in over a month.
"I don't think [Sunday] was a case of we didn't want it and they wanted it more. It was just they made shots and made good plays and down the stretch. And they were a little more patient. I thought they played a little more mature on offense than us," Compton observed.
What has changed from their previous meeting?
Alaska came out on top in a 93-89 squeaker when the two met for the first time on June 9. Chris Banchero paved the way for the Aces there with 23 points, nine rebounds and four assists, while Gani Lawal, Meralco's import at the time, tallied 26 points and 28 boards for the Bolts. Incidentally, that was the Aces' last win before they went in a tailspin.
The most noticeable changes heading into Friday's do-or-die clash will be their import situations, which have been anything but stable this conference. Delroy James, who replaced the injured Lawal and Jimmie Lee Taylor, is now the Bolts' best hope for redemption. Diamon Simpson, meanwhile, returned for another tour of duty with the Aces, taking over reinforcement duties from Cris Daniels and Nino Johnson.
What will be the key matchups?
Alaska and Meralco will go as far as their imports take them, making that matchup a must-watch.
James has found his niche with the Bolts, coming off a clutch 34-point outing against the Beermen. Simpson, on the other hand, narrowly missed a triple-double after gathering 24 points, 16 boards and eight dimes in that Blackwater loss. Simpson's familiarity with the Aces is a key advantage, but an aggressive James on offense could be what Meralco will need to get over the hump.
"James plays a lot more like Justin Brownlee and Coach Norman has trusted him much the same way. He is a versatile all around scorer who attacks really well on the face up and can post too," said Compton. "We cannot stop him but hopefully we can limit him a bit and make him have to get and make tougher shots while we work to contain (Chris) Newsome, (Cliff) Hodge, (Baser) Amer and the rest of their talented local threats."
The local frontcourt battle will also be worth monitoring. Meralco saw outbursts from Raymond Almazan (15 points, seven rebounds) and Bryan Faundo (10 points, three rebounds in 22 minutes off the bench) against SMB, but Alaska also got productive performances from Sonny Thoss (15 points, five boards) and Vic Manuel (15 points, six rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench) versus Blackwater.
If the shots from downtown don't fall for Alaska and Meralco, which was exactly the case in their last contests (Bolts shot 5-for-19 and Aces went 3-for-16), expect the big men to try and neutralize each other in the win-or-go home game.