The 2023-24 PBA season is finally upon us -- starting with the Commissioner's Cup which tips off on Sunday -- and several intriguing storylines await.
For the first time in a long while, the league will have a deep rookie class. The status of several marquee names remains up in the air. Plus, a diverse set of imports are ready to shake things up.
It's time to bring out our crystal ball and see what the new season has in store.
Only, instead of the usual fare about who wins Most Valuable Player or Rookie of the Year, which teams will win the two championships or when Mikey Williams will come back, we decided to go a different route.
Instead, we tried to answer these four questions about the new season.
Who's the sleeper rookie?
For sure, all eyes will be on 2023 top picks like Stephen Holt, Christian David, Keith Datu, Ken Tuffin and Schonny Winston. Any of those five could make a serious run for Rookie of the Year.
But keep an eye out for Richie Rodger of NLEX Road Warriors, who could turn out to be the steal of the draft.
There's a reason why Frankie Lim passed up on Winston and Brandon Bates with the 7th pick. Sources have told ESPN that Rodger has been impressive in practice and has shown a high maturity level for a rookie.
The fact that he can play both guard spots will help ensure a spot in the rotation, although he'll have to compete for minutes with Kevin Alas, Don Trollano, Matt Nieto and Kris Rosales.
Also worth watching is the 6-foot-8 Bates, who could crack Meralco Bolts' aging frontline rotation with Raymond Almazan and Norbert Torres both well into their 30s.
Which team has the most to prove?
After going 9-26 in 2022-23, much is expected from Blackwater Bossing this season.
Their management showed they were serious about winning by going out and signing Jeff Cariaso as head coach and allowing him to bring in several new faces on his bench.
They may have found a gem in rookie David, plus they have other rookies joining later in the conference after their college and Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League commitments -- 6-9 Clifford Jopia and guard James Kwekuteye -- who could eventually bolster their bench.
Elsewhere, Mike Ayonayon is coming off a good showing at the PBA On Tour. Veterans Jvee Casio, Troy Rosario and Baser Amer are finally healthy, while youngsters RK Ilagan, Rey Suerte and Ato Ular now have more experience. Rashawn McCarthy and Mike DiGregorio will provide additional scoring and stability in the backcourt
At the very least, expect the Bossing to easily surpass their win total from last season. If things break their way, they could finally book their maiden semifinal appearance since they joined the league in 2014.
Which coach is on the hot seat?
Pop quiz: after Tim Cone and Chito Victolero, who is the longest-tenured coach in the PBA?
It's Johnedel Cardel, who has been at the helm of Terrafirma Dyip since the 2018 Commissioner's Cup. During that span he has compiled a 29-96 win-loss record and has never won more than four games in a conference.
It's not entirely Cardel's fault that his teams have floundered, especially since his management keeps trading away their top picks. But now, the Dyip are coming off a creditable run in the PBA On Tour, where they went 4-7 despite losing Kevin Ferrer after just two games.
Although they're not exactly championship contenders, the Dyip have the tools to make some noise.
When talking about the top guards in the league, Juami Tiongson is now in the conversation. Now, he's teaming up with blue chip rookies Stephen Holt and Taylor Miller. Javi Gomez De Liaño looks poised to make a big leap this year, while prized big man Isaac Go can finally get untracked after an injury-ravaged rookie year.
All this is a long-winded way of saying that the Dyip look better than they have in years, and they just need to be pushed in the right direction. Will Cardel be up to the task? And if he isn't, will then Terrafirma management the opt to go in another direction.
Who will be the season's breakout player?
All signs point to Converge FiberXers sophomore center Justin Arana having an All-Star type of season.
Despite being slightly undersized for a big man at 6-4, Arana has shown he can play bigger than his size. As a rookie he averaged in double digits for points in two of the three conferences before taking it up several notches in the On Tour with 16.7 per game, including a pair of 30-plus outings.
His teammates have been raving about him, with one telling ESPN that Arana "has what it takes to be a superstar." While that might be too big a leap, there's no question that Arana's trajectory will continue to trend upwards this season.
Another sophomore to watch: JM Calma of NorthPort Batang Pier, who also put up impressive numbers (16.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) during On Tour.