It's that time of the conference when we pull out our calculators and prepare our spreadsheets to figure out who will crack the top positions in the Philippine Cup playoffs. What makes this conference trickier is its format. This time, the top four teams earn the twice-to-beat advantage, unlike the last Commissioner's and Governors' Cups where only the top two teams held that edge.
All eight playoff-bound teams secured their spots earlier than expected. The focus now shifts to possible playoff scenarios: Which teams can still climb into the top four and earn that crucial twice-to-beat edge? Which teams are locked in, and who's still at risk of falling in the standings and facing a steeper path to the semifinals?
With seeding still in the air, the final stretch of the elimination round promises plenty of drama.
Four-way tie at 8-3 looms between SMC teams and NLEX
Based on how the standings have taken shape, eight wins appears to be the magic number to at least crack the top four and secure a twice-to-beat edge. But the way its shaping up, four teams can have the same 8-3 record as PBA elimination round nears its close, with NLEX already locked in and San Miguel, Magnolia, and Ginebra all within striking distance of the same mark.
NLEX could have finished with the best record outright with San Miguel's loss versus Converge, but their recent loss to NorthPort dropped them to 8-3. That opened the door for the other contenders to catch up, and now, the three SMC sister teams are in position to do just that. San Miguel, Magnolia and Ginebra each have one game remaining and should all three pick up one more win apiece, a rare four-way tie for the top four spots will materialize.
In this scenario, the quotient or point differential system will determine the final seedings among the tied teams. San Miguel would take the top spot with a plus-17 differential, followed by NLEX at No. 2 with plus-3. Magnolia would land at No. 3 with a minus-9, while Ginebra would round out the group at No. 4 with minus-11. Despite the differences in seeding, all four teams would still carry a twice-to-beat advantage into the quarterfinals.
Meralco will be the No. 8 seed, awaits quarterfinal opponent
With four teams already reaching seven wins, Meralco's chances of sneaking into the top four and earning a twice-to-beat advantage have officially vanished. Even as they shift focus to their upcoming quarterfinal stint in the BCL Asia, they already know what awaits when they return: A daunting matchup against either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the Philippine Cup playoffs.
Converge getting its seventh win over San Miguel enables them to avoid being the eighth seed in the quarterfinals. And with all the teams that can share an identical 6-5 record defeated Meralco, this relegates the defending champions guaranteed to number eight, with a possible match-up against NLEX or one of the SMC teams armed with a twice-to-beat advantage.
Regardless of which team they face, Meralco won't be your typical lower seed. They're riding a three-game win streak and showing solid form internationally. Twice-to-beat or not, the higher seeds will be on high alert against a Meralco team that knows how to punch above its weight.
Four-way tie at 7-4 still on the table
The most chaotic playoff scenario that could still unfold in the last two games of the elimination round is a four-way tie at 7-4, covering the third seed all the way down to the sixth. A possible six-way deadlock was averted by Magnolia's victory against TNT, which put them at 8-3 and 6-5 respectively.
For this outcome to happen, San Miguel will have to lose versus NorthPort, and Rain or Shine defeating Ginebra on Sunday.We would then see San Miguel, Ginebra, Converge, and Rain or Shine all knotted up in a six-team deadlock.
In that situation, point-differentials would again be used. While some of the key games haven't been played yet, here's how things currently stack up in terms of point differentials within this group: (3) San Miguel plus-17, (4) Ginebra plus-8, (5) Converge minus-6, (6) Rain or Shine minus-19.
These numbers are still subject to change depending on the final game outcomes, of course, but as it stands, San Miguel and Ginebra would still walk away with the twice-to-beat advantage, while the other three teams would settle for lower seeds. Meanwhile, Rain or Shine would need to come up with a huge margin of victory to tilt these numbers in their favor and pull Ginebra enough to bump their point differential.
How a three-way tie at 7-4 can propel Rain or Shine to twice-to-beat advantage
Rain or Shine still has a shot, albeit a slim one, at securing the coveted No. 4 seed. But the road to that playoff cushion is anything but straightforward. They need more than just a win over Ginebra to make it happen; they need the stars to align.
First, they'll be rooting hard for San Miguel to take care of business against NorthPort in the first game of Sunday's double-header, which is only the first domino. Then comes their own assignment - a tall order against a surging Ginebra squad. But winning alone won't be enough. Rain or Shine needs to beat them by at least 15 points to swing the point differential in their favor and complete the climb.
If both results go their way, a three-way tie at 7-4 will emerge, and the numbers will favor Yeng Guiao's crew: (4) Rain or Shine at plus-5, (5) Ginebra at plus-4, and (6) Converge at minus-9 in the quotient. It's a narrow window, and Rain or Shine has no choice but to believe they can crash the top four to gain a twice-to-beat edge that could change their playoff fortunes.
TNT will go to the quarterfinals with a disadvantage
The path to a Grand Slam just got steeper for TNT, as they are now guaranteed to enter the playoffs as either the sixth or seventh seed. Despite riding a six-game winning streak earlier in the conference, back-to-back losses to Ginebra and Magnolia dropped them to a 6-5 record - currently tied with Meralco.
TNT will now have to wait and see how the final elimination round game between Rain or Shine and Ginebra plays out. Their playoff seeding depends entirely on the result: if Rain or Shine wins, TNT will fall to the No. 7 spot; if Ginebra prevails, they'll stay at No. 6.
Still, it would be unwise to write off TNT just yet. This is a team that's proven its ability to get hot at the right time, and with their championship pedigree and seasoned core, they remain a dangerous opponent no matter the seed. The road may be tougher, but for a team eyeing history, every challenge is just another test of their championship resolve.