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TAB Betting Blog: AFL Round 1 value in Swans and Suns

Here are TAB.com.au's best betting options for the upcoming weekend of AFL action.

Best bets

Greater Western Sydney to defeat Geelong at $1.58

After being thrashed in last year's Grand Final against Richmond, Greater Western Sydney will be determined to begin the 2020 home-and-away season on the right note against Geelong at Giants Stadium on Saturday night.

It is fraught with danger to glean much from the pre-season, but the Giants and Cats had contrasting fortunes in the Marsh Community Series.

GWS easily accounted for Sydney before overcoming Richmond in Wagga whereas Geelong were disappointing against Gold Coast and Essendon.

The Giants enter the opening round with a relatively healthy list aside from Tim Taranto who dislocated a shoulder in the clash versus the Swans.

The same can not be said for the Cats as coach Chris Scott has already ruled out off-season recruit Jack Steven and there is a serious question mark over the fitness of fearless captain Joel Selwood.

Even though every game for the foreseeable future will be played without fans, the Giants enjoyed a great record at Giants Stadium last season with seven wins from nine clashes.

In their six interstate trips in 2019, the Cats won three times from six occasions.

GWS appear to be entering this fixture in better fashion then Geelong and should be too strong at home.

West Coast to beat Melbourne by 1-39 points at $1.90

West Coast were not able to secure back-to-back premierships last season, but they will begin their quest for redemption against Melbourne at Optus Stadium on Sunday night.

The Eagles' attempt to win consecutive flags was dented in the final two rounds of last year's home-and-away season when they fell to Richmond at the MCG and Hawthorn at home. As a result, West Coast failed to secure a top-four spot and in the semi-finals, they were beaten by Geelong.

In the off-season, West Coast secured Tim Kelly in a trade from Geelong and he joins a star-studded midfield including Andrew Gaff, Dom Sheed and Luke Shuey.

After reaching a preliminary final in 2018, last season was horrendous for Melbourne. The Demons finished with five wins and occupied 17th on the ladder with only Gold Coast behind them. They ended the season with seven straight losses and eight defeats from their last nine fixtures.

Even though Melbourne has boasted about their off-season, they face a daunting task against West Coast, who won 10 of their 13 clashes at Optus Stadium in 2019.

The Demons looked good in the pre-season, but the Eagles at home should be too classy.

Value bets

Sydney to defeat Adelaide at $2.15

Adelaide has experienced upheaval during the off-season and that could play to Sydney's advantage when they clash in the opening round at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon.

The Crows parted ways with Don Pyke in the off-season and Matthew Nicks is now at the helm of a side that looks completely different to the 2017 grand finalists.

Even though Buddy Franklin will be absent, the Swans will pose problems for Adelaide starting with Tom Papley, who enjoyed a terrific pre-season.

Sydney only won eight matches last season, but six of their losses were by 17 points or less, highlighting their usual competitiveness.

Considering the differences in each team's off-season, the Swans appeal as slight outsiders at a venue where they have won four times from six occasions.

Gold Coast to upset Port Adelaide at $2.60

Gold Coast enjoyed a terrific pre-season and they should feel confident about upstaging Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium on Saturday night.

Pre-season form can be a false dawn, but the Suns have every right to feel buoyant after thrashing Geelong by 68 points at home before outlasting Adelaide by seven points in South Australia.

Alex Sexton starred in the victory over Geelong with six goals while off-season recruit Brandon Ellis gathered 27 disposals in the triumph versus Adelaide.

Even though the Suns have failed to reach the finals, they generally start seasons well.

They won their first three matches in 2016, were 2-2 after four rounds in 2017, won their first two clashes in 2018 and were 3-1 after four rounds last season.

Gold Coast has a great opportunity to start the 2020 season in victorious fashion.

Best Multi

Sydney to account for Adelaide at $2.15

Gold Coast to win, draw, or lose by 13 points or less against Port Adelaide at $1.90

Greater Western Sydney to defeat Geelong at $1.58

West Coast to beat Melbourne at $1.35

Multi Price is $8.71