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Steelers (11-1) at Bills (9-3)8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 82.1 | Spread: BUF -1.5 (48) What to watch for: Over the past four weeks, the Bills own the second-best passing offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game. But the Steelers have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in that span. Considering Buffalo's struggles to run the ball effectively this season, it's critical the Bills either figure out a way to solve Pittsburgh's pass defense or get their run game going. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques Bold prediction: James Washington will lead Pittsburgh receivers in targets. The Steelers had a whopping seven drops in the loss to Washington, and coach Mike Tomlin said afterward that receivers who can't catch the ball will be replaced by those who can. Though explosive, Diontae Johnson has struggled the most with drops, recording three last week, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has openly campaigned to get Washington on the field more often. Washington is known for making combat catches and explosive plays, two things that will be needed against a tough Bills team. -- Brooke Pryor Stat to know: The Bills' offense leads the league in both third- (49.3%) and fourth-down conversion rate (83.3%) this season. And that third-down rate is the highest by any team since the 2011 Saints (56.7%). Playoff/draft picture: A lot going on here. First, the Steelers can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a loss from either the Dolphins, Raiders or Titans. They can clinch the AFC North with a win and a Browns loss. The Bills can also clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses from each of these three teams: the Ravens, Raiders and Dolphins. The Bills have a 90.8% chance to win the AFC East division, according to FPI, something they haven't done since 1995. Injuries: Steelers | Bills What to know for fantasy: Yes, Johnson may lead the league in drops this season, but the consistent work has him as WR4 in total points over the past month. See Week 14 rankings. Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. Read more. Pryor's pick: Bills 27, Steelers 24
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 24, Steelers 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 56.8% (by an average of 2.3 points) Matchup must-reads: Steelers RB Conner activated off reserve/COVID-19 list ... Allen's big game shows growth, fills Bills with confidence
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