With the College Football Playoff in the books, we break down why the Big 12 contenders will make the playoff in 2016. And why they won't.
We continue this series by taking a closer look at the Baylor Bears.
Why Baylor will make the playoff
Baylor played like one of the best teams in the country -- and maybe the best -- through its first six games of 2015 before a brutal streak of injuries wiped out any College Football Playoff and Big 12 titles hopes. On paper, their 2016 squad might not look like a no-brainer playoff choice. But the Bears can certainly win the conference, and that might be enough to get in.
The return of Seth Russell (and Jarrett Stidham) means Baylor will be guided by elite quarterback play once again. There are very few programs that can lose guys like Corey Coleman and Jay Lee and still feel just as good about their receiving corps. They'll be rolling with eight or nine really good pass-catchers. Shock Linwood plus Johnny Jefferson should be one of the best one-two punches in the game.
All that firepower will be as challenging as ever for the rest of the Big 12, and Oklahoma -- the team that likely stands in Baylor's way of its goals -- is losing a lot of talent on defense. In what's shaping up to be a wide-open year at the top for the league, you want that offensive advantage.
The defense will be missing some studs -- we'll get to that -- but defensive coordinator Phil Bennett still has some nice chess pieces to work with next year in Taylor Young, Travon Blanchard, Chance Waz and K.J. Smith. The defensive line and secondary get much younger, but help is on the way in this recruiting class and it's time to cash in on the depth they've been building up over the past three years.
Art Briles acknowledged from the start in 2015 that Baylor could only ensure its playoff bid by going undefeated. The same is likely true in 2016. But knowing Briles, he won't be any less confident they can reload and construct another title contender.
Why Baylor won't make the playoff
The most glaring concerns for next year's Bears start up front. Andrew Billings declaring for the draft means Baylor is losing all four of its starting defensive linemen and five senior offensive linemen. Those nine big guys combined for 237 career starts during their time in Waco. Billings and left tackle Spencer Drango are arguably two of the best to ever play at Baylor. That's a lot of leadership out the door in addition to all their talent and production.
Baylor's coaches will find good players to replace them, but this requires putting a lot of faith in guys like Maurice Porter, Dominic DeSouza, Branton Autry and Jeremy Faulk who've never played a down for BU.
The rebuilding doesn't stop there for a defense that's losing both starting cornerbacks, the middle linebacker and two safeties. Again, there's good young depth and players who will step up. But these are crucial changes.
And despite playing the easiest October slate (Iowa State, bye, Kansas, bye, Texas) you've ever seen, the schedule is still a little thorny. The Bears open Big 12 play against Oklahoma State. They play TCU at home and Oklahoma on the road in back-to-back weeks in November. And this isn't getting talked about much, but there's also the potential hurdle of closing the regular season on Dec. 3 at West Virginia.
None of this really means that Baylor is due for a rough year. But consider those factors, throw in a few unexpected injuries and that can be the difference between 12-0 and 10-2.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest Baylor is worthy preseason top-10 or even top-five hype. There are also reasons to be skeptical, because this team has a lot to figure out in spring ball.