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Can Miami Dolphins clinch playoff berth by beating Bills team that's already in?

Dolphins (10-5) at Bills (12-3)

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 67.8 | Spread: BUF -4.5 (47.5)

What to watch for: Now locked into either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the AFC, the Bills have a tough decision to make -- do they rest their starters and risk playoff positioning by losing to Miami, allowing a division rival entry into the postseason in the process? Or do they risk injury, play their starters and try to secure home-field advantage through at least the first two rounds? Whether or not the Bills' stars play will have a big impact on the outcome. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard will get his 10th interception of the year, making him the first defender in 13 years to get double-digit picks (Antonio Cromartie, 2007). Howard getting a pick shouldn't be a surprise, but his overall frequency will be. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has made a routine of torching the Dolphins (17 touchdowns to three interceptions). But Miami's defense is due a big game against the Bills, though it's unclear if Allen or Matt Barkley will take most of the reps for a team that already clinched the division. -- Cameron Wolfe

Stat to know: Miami leads the NFL in scoring defense (18.8 points allowed per game) after ranking last in 2019 (30.9). Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the only team in NFL history to go from worst to first in scoring defense is the 1966-67 Houston Oilers in the AFL, when they jumped from 28.3 points allowed per game to 14.2.

Playoff/draft picture: The Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a loss by either the Ravens, Browns or Colts. FPI says they have an 80.8% chance to make the playoffs. The Bills, meanwhile, have locked up the AFC East but can't finish atop the conference. Buffalo can clinch the second seed with a win against Miami or a Pittsburgh loss.

Injuries: Dolphins | Bills

What to know for fantasy: Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs has 96.3 fantasy points over the past three weeks, pacing the position by 17.4 points. If he can rack up 130 receiving yards for a fourth straight game, he will become just the fourth player with such streak over the past decade (Odell Beckham Jr. and Calvin Johnson). See Week 17 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami is 15-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last 20 games as an underdog, including four straight covers. And it is 15-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Brian Flores. Read more.

Wolfe's pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 20

Louis-Jacques' pick: Dolphins 17, Bills 14

FPI prediction: BUF, 69.7% (by an average of 6.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa and the art of mentoring the competition ... Bills transitioning from underdog to a big dog in AFC as playoffs approach ... Dolphins coach Flores defends decision to stick with Tagovailoa as starting QB ... Bills granted permission to have fans at playoff game, first crowd of season