No. 7 Colts at No. 2 Bills
Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 73.9 | Spread: BUF -6.5 (51)
What to watch for: The Bills are in the playoffs for the third time in four years after a 17-year postseason drought, but they haven't won a playoff game since the 1995 season. This Buffalo team is scorching hot, however, outscoring opponents 229-110 since Week 12. Can a Colts defense that ranked in the top 10 this season in both points and yards allowed slow down quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills' offense? -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Colts quarterback Philip Rivers will have a season low in pass attempts, meaning 20 or fewer. One of the keys of slowing down Buffalo's offense is by keeping Allen & Co. on the sideline for as long as possible. And the best way to do that is by running the ball as much as possible. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor closed out the regular season by rushing for 741 yards -- including 253 in Week 17 -- over his final six games. The Colts will lean on him even more against the Bills. Rivers' current season low in pass attempts is 21, which he had against the Jets in Week 3. -- Mike Wells
Stat to know: The Bills have dropped back to pass on 64% of their first-down plays this season, the highest first-down passing rate by a winning team over the past 20 seasons. That's up from 53% last season. Buffalo's 2,493 passing yards on first down is the NFL's most this season.
Matt Bowen's game key: The Colts' linebackers have to close the middle of the field for Allen. How? By using Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke to sink under the deep in-breakers and force Allen to throw the ball underneath. Read more.
Betting nugget: The Bills covered six of eight home games this season, tied for the second-best cover rate at home and a vast improvement over their 6-10 mark at home against the spread (ATS) over the previous two seasons. Read more.
Wells' pick: Bills 30, Colts 20
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 31, Colts 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.5% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Colts coach Reich stuck with quarterback Rivers ... For Bills' 1995 team, playoff surge evokes memories of last time franchise ruled AFC East ... Colts need consistency to go with "us vs. the world" mentality ... Fans attending Bills' playoff game taking COVID-19 tests ... How did Allen make us all look so dumb? Inside his unbelievable rise