Those names get added to the running back market in free agency, which gets added to a fairly decent crop of runners available, including a deep NFL draft class.
In the laws of supply and demand, there’s more supply, so the prices might be lower. Now, all it takes is for one team to make an extremely lucrative offer to alter the marketplace, but the Cowboys and any team looking for a running back will have to ask how much more will they get from a younger Murray coming off an incredible season than they would from one of these more veteran backs at a cheaper price.
And this doesn’t take into account whether Adrian Peterson will be available.
But the point of this post isn’t to make running back-to-running back comparisons between Murray and those backs. It’s to point out the nature of the position. When it ends, it ends.
In 2011, the Carolina Panthers signed Williams to a five-year, $43 million deal that included a $16 million bonus. In 2013 they extended his deal another two years, guaranteeing him more money while lowering his cap value.
Jackson signed a three-year, $12 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons in 2013. The Detroit Lions signed Bush to a four-year, $16 million deal in 2013. They didn’t play out their contracts.
As I’ve said before with Murray, what will matter most will be the money in the first three years. At 27, it’s reasonable to expect he has another three years left in him to play at a high level. What’s not reasonable to expect is another 1,845-yard season because that had never been done before in franchise history.
What the Cowboys -- or any team that might sign Murray should he hit the open market -- can expect is three years of quality production. The design of the contract will be for more years and more money but that’s only for cap purposes to help the team and make the deal seem larger than it really is.
In reality, most free-agent deals are designed to be three years. After the third year, teams want to have a get out of jail free card, which means when they cut a player they create cap room. The Falcons will get $3.75 million in room from Jackson. The Lions gained $1.7 million by cutting Bush.
Wherever and whenever Murray signs, there will come a day when he will be like Jackson, Bush, Williams, Johnson and Hillis -- former stars with diminishing skills.