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Sliding Broncos seek turnaround against Tua Tagovailoa, hot Dolphins

Dolphins (6-3) at Broncos (3-6)

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 31.1 | Spread: MIA -3 (45)

What to watch for: Just how often will the Broncos turn the ball over? They have lost five fumbles and thrown a league-leading 16 interceptions. The Dolphins are tied for fourth in the league in takeaways and have confused, in particular, the young quarterbacks they've faced. Keep an eye on the Broncos' offense in the three-wide set, as all 16 interceptions have come from that this season. -- Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: The Dolphins will produce five or more sacks and multiple turnovers against the Broncos' offense. Miami's multiple defense has frustrated offenses and quarterbacks all year, but it only had one game with five-plus sacks this season (San Francisco). That changes this week whether it's a limited Drew Lock (who threw four interceptions last Sunday) or a backup under center, as the Dolphins' defense continues its ball-snatching ways while making it a rough day for Denver. -- Cameron Wolfe

Stat to know: Miami's Tua Tagovailoa is seeking to be fifth AFC quarterback to win his first four career starts over the last 30 years (Drew Brees in 2002, Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Trevor Siemian in 2016 and Patrick Mahomes in 2017-18). He also has already joined Damon Huard as only Dolphins QBs all-time to win their first three career starts and would be the first Dolphins to win his first four. Tagovailoa has five touchdowns and zero interceptions through three starts, joining Carson Wentz as only rookie quarterbacks to win their first three starts and throw zero picks in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). No rookie QB has achieved that feat over his first four starts during that span.

Injuries: Dolphins | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Week 4 was the last time Melvin Gordon had a touch gaining more than 11 yards. That was also the last time he ranked inside the top-20 at the position for a week. The name value and recognition far outweigh what he is giving your fantasy roster. See Week 11 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami is 7-2 ATS this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the best ATS mark in the NFL. Read more.

Wolfe's pick: Dolphins 27, Broncos 16

Legwold's pick: Dolphins 23, Broncos 17

FPI prediction: MIA, 53.2% (by an average of 1.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How the overachieving Dolphins can win the AFC East ... Why can't the Broncos' run game find its footing? ... Dolphins waive RB Howard in 'mutual parting' ... Broncos 'committed' to Lock but want him 'to fight through this' ... Broncos' extreme makeover is their version of tanking for Tua