Bears (7-7) at Jaguars (1-13)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 15.3 | Spread: CHI -7.5 (47)
What to watch for: The Jaguars' secondary is banged up with top corners Sidney Jones and C.J. Henderson out, so it's going to be a rough ask to contain Bears star Allen Robinson. The former Jaguars second-round pick is just eight catches away from tying his career high (98), and there's a chance he could get them against the Jaguars. Mitchell Trubisky is averaging 245 yards passing per game since he returned to the lineup and he's thrown eight touchdown passes to only three picks. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 31 TD passes. -- Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: David Montgomery sets a new career high with 175 rushing yards. The Bears intend to bludgeon Jacksonville into submission. Chicago cannot afford to let the Jaguars pull an upset, otherwise the Bears' playoff dreams are over. And who are we kidding; Jacksonville probably isn't all that interested in winning on Sunday so it can secure the No. 1 pick and quarterback Trevor Lawrence in next April's draft. The easiest way for the Bears to avoid screwing this up is by feeding the ball to Montgomery 35 times, which I suspect they will. -- Jeff Dickerson
Stat to know: The Bears have scored 25 points in four consecutive games for the first time since 1995, when they did so in five in a row. They have an opportunity to score 30 points in their fourth straight game this weekend, something they haven't done since 1965. Their offense has made a dramatic turnaround, rushing for twice as much yardage per game over the past three games versus the first 11.
Playoff/draft picture: The Bears will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and a Cardinals win. The Jaguars will own the No. 1 pick in next year's draft if they lose out or if they finish with the same record as the Jets. FPI gives them a 58% chance of losing out, highest in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Montgomery put 29.2 fantasy points on the board last week in Minnesota, becoming the first running back of 2020 to score at least 24.5 points in four straight games. See Week 16 rankings.
Betting nugget: Chicago is 3-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season. Read more.
Dickerson's pick: Bears 27, Jaguars 14
DiRocco's pick: Bears 31, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: CHI, 69.5% (by an average of 6.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: David Montgomery's breakout ignites Bears' late-season surge ... Drafting Trevor Lawrence would give star-crossed Jacksonville a jolt ... Bears face QB decisions in the possible post-Mitchell Trubisky era ... Jaguars' Doug Marrone trying to win, not secure top pick in 2021 NFL draft ... Local artist keeps Bears' team photo tradition alive during pandemic