Chargers QB Justin Herbert could see numbers soar against Chiefs' backups

Chargers (6-9) at Chiefs (14-1)

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Matchup rating: 37.1 | Spread: LAC -3.5 (43.5)

What to watch for: The Chiefs will try to keep as many of their regulars out of harm's way after clinching the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed last week. So Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is in line for a big day. He got his NFL career started in Week 2 against the Chiefs by throwing for 311 yards and a touchdown in an overtime defeat. -- Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Herbert will finish strong with a 400-plus-yard game. With the Chiefs likely sitting some defensive starters, he will break the rookie passing-yard record. His 4,034 yards are currently fourth on the list, and he needs 341 to pass Andrew Luck for the most. -- Shelley Smith

Stat to know: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has 1,416 receiving yards this season, most ever by a tight end. He needs 44 more than Stefon Diggs in Week 17 to move into first overall this season -- if he plays. No tight end has ever led the NFL in receiving yards in a season.

Playoff/draft picture: The Chiefs have locked up both the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. They will receive both home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and a wild-card round bye. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 33.5% likely to lock up a top-10 draft pick for April. FPI currently has them picking at No. 10.

Injuries: Chargers | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: Los Angeles running back Austin Ekeler has scored over seven fantasy points as a pass-catcher in four of his five games since returning to action in Week 12. See Week 17 rankings.

Betting nugget: Since 1990, teams that have previously clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs are 9-23 ATS in Week 17 games. Read more.

Smith's pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 21

Teicher's pick: Chargers 26, Chiefs 20

FPI prediction: KC, 65.5% (by an average of 5.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: 'We didn't know he was this good': Chargers' Herbert excels despite unusual rookie year ... Mahomes has work to do, even while sitting Sunday ... Chargers' Herbert sets rookie record for TD passes ... Chiefs to rest Mahomes during regular-season finale