Cowboys (2-7) at Vikings (4-5)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 34.1 | Spread: MIN -7 (47.5)
What to watch for: How will the Vikings manage Dalvin Cook's workload? You might expect Minnesota to lean heavy on its star running back, given it is facing a Dallas defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game. But there's a caveat, and it has to do with preserving Cook for teams that will be more difficult to beat. If the Vikings have a commanding lead at any point, do we see more of backup Alexander Mattison, or perhaps more of quarterback Kirk Cousins airing it out to rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson? After all, Minnesota is averaging 424.5 yards per game at home, while Dallas' secondary is allowing opposing QBs a 103.1 passer rating. This should be a big day for Cousins and his receivers. -- Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott will have his first 100-yard game of the season. He was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries by Minnesota last season, and after allowing a 100-yard rusher in each of the first two games, the Vikings have not allowed more than 75 yards on the ground to a runner in the past seven contests. With the return of quarterback Andy Dalton, the Cowboys figure to have more balance on offense, which should help Elliott find some running room. -- Todd Archer
Stat to know: Cousins has at least an 80.0 Total QBR in his past three games. Brett Favre (2009) is the only Vikings quarterback to produce an 80.0 Total QBR or better in four straight starts since the metric was introduced in 2006. Helping him along has been Jefferson, whose four games with 100-plus receiving yards are the most by a Vikings rookie since Hall of Famer Randy Moss in 1998.
What to know for fantasy: In Dalton's lone full game this season (Week 6 against Arizona), Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Elliott all saw double-digit targets. Cooper was the fantasy producer of the trio, racking up 20.9 fantasy points on his way to a WR7 finish. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-8 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.
Archer's pick: Vikings 33, Cowboys 20
Cronin's pick: Vikings 27, Cowboys 14
FPI prediction: MIN, 76.2% (by an average of 9.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cowboys' Elliott on dip in production: It's been tough ... Vikings prove they're contenders after 3-0 NFC North stretch ... Lamb, Martin among Cowboys' few bright spots ... Vikings' dilemma: How much is too much for Cook? ... Back to practice, Dalton "looked good" for Cowboys, McCarthy says ... Run like "Swiss chard"? Vikings' Cook pulled "Tonight Show" prank