The Toronto Blue Jays have held a share of one of the wild-card spots every day since Sept. 6. Before that, they’d held at least a share of the American League East lead every day from Aug. 13 onward.
The rest of the teams in the AL wild-card hunt have shown fallibility.
Baltimore Orioles (second wild card)
Major flaw:
The Orioles have five players who have made at least 10 starts and have an ERA above 5.25: Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright and Wade Miley.
The Elias Sports Bureau notes that since earned runs were first recorded, no team has ever made the playoffs with five pitchers with 10 regular-season starts each with an ERA above 5.25.
Why they’re still a playoff contender:
• The Orioles have hit 245 home runs, the most in the majors.
• Zach Britton has 46 saves, most in AL; he has not blown a save yet this season.
• The Orioles have a .761 team OPS, third best in the AL.
Detroit Tigers (1 1/2 games back)
Major flaw:
The Tigers have minus-49 defensive runs saved (DRS) this season. Outfielders J.D. Martinez (minus-20) and Cameron Maybin (minus-12) have been the primary culprits.
Since DRS were tracked beginning in 2003, only eight teams with that few or fewer DRS have made the playoffs, the last being the Tigers themselves in 2014.
Why they’re still a playoff contender:
• Francisco Rodriguez, Saturday's blown save not withstanding, has 44 saves, second in AL.
• Justin Upton has a 1.153 OPS since a mid-August benching, best in the AL since he returned on Aug. 20.
• The Tigers have a .266 team BA, second best in the AL.
Seattle Mariners (2 1/2 games back)
Major flaw:
The Mariners are on pace to allow 216 home runs. The only playoff team to allow more home runs in a season was the 2001 Astros (221).
Why they’re still a playoff contender:
• Their bullpen ranks third in the AL with 523 strikeouts and has a 3.35 ERA since Aug. 1, also third best. New closer Edwin Diaz has been terrific with 17 saves.
• Nelson Cruz has 41 home runs, fourth most in the AL. He's the first Mariners player with consecutive 40-homer seasons since Alex Rodriguez (1998 to 2000).
Houston Astros (3 games back)
Major flaw:
They lost 15 games to the Rangers this season. Elias research shows that only two teams have ever made the playoffs with 15 or more losses to a single opponent in a season: the 2013 Indians (4-15 vs Tigers) and the 1945 Cubs (6-16 vs Cardinals).
Why they’re still a playoff contender:
• Jose Altuve has been MVP-caliber. He leads the AL with a .337 batting average.
• The Astros have 88 defensive runs saved, by far the most in the AL. Among those who have excelled is Colby Rasmus, who has 13 defensive runs saved in left field, most in the AL.