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Why the Rockies will keep Troy Tulowitzki

It seems these days, the Colorado Rockies are making more news in New York then they are in Denver. Part of that has to do with the perpetual rumors involving either Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez (or both) going to the Mets. The Rockies had the second-worst record in the National League in 2014, a season highlighted by a marketing gaffe resulting in a misspelled "Tulowizki" jersey giveaway followed the next day by a sighting of Tulo at Yankee Stadium. Perhaps Tulowitzki really was just paying tribute to childhood idol Derek Jeter. Yet, without being able to read his thoughts, it sure appeared that Tulowitzki wasn't all that happy. Dissatisfied star plus losing team equals trade candidate, right?

Perhaps a front office headed up by new general manager Jeff Bridich would be daring enough to say "rebuild."

Not so fast.

Let's flash back to early 2014. Before the season, owner Dick Monfort told the Denver Post's Mark Kiszla that the Rockies could win 90 games in 2014. Yep, 90 games, a 26-win improvement over 2013. His rationale was based on two points. The first that the Rockies only got two wins from their No. 5 starters in 2013 and that acquiring Brett Anderson and Jordan Lyles would bump that gunk to the curb. Second was Monfort's belief that Tulowitzki and Gonzalez were due for some good health. Monfort believed that when Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are in the starting lineup, the Rockies win 60 percent of their games, though as Kiszla pointed out, the Rockies' winning percentage with them in the lineup was actually .528.

And there is the rub. You see, no matter what you or I thought, no matter what the numbers said, the Rockies believed they were contenders going into 2014. Tulowitzki missed part of the season with a strained hamstring, which led to labral surgery, and Gonzalez was atypically not good for the brief stints he wasn't on the disabled list. Though the fifth starters from 2013 were long gone, injuries rattled the 2014 rotation to the point where the Rockies had to use 15 different starting pitchers to get through the year. Outside of Jorge De La Rosa and the emergence of Tyler Matzek, nothing worked. Potential ace Jhoulys Chacin turned into a pumpkin by Independence Day. Lyles got hurt and Anderson got even more hurt. By the time the season ended, the ineffective Franklin Morales accumulated the second-most innings on a Rockies team that limped to a 66-96 record.

The Rockies weren't really as bad as your typical 66-96 team. As Dave Cameron at FanGraphs noted, based on their expected record by BaseRuns (the number of runs a team should have scored or allowed based on its component statistics), the Rockies' 2014 record should have been 77-85. Cameron figures that while the Rockies weren't contenders, they were unlucky not just because of their injuries but in the timing of their run scoring. The Rockies had a poor habit of not scoring or allowing the other team to score at critical moments of their games. The good news: Of the five other teams Cameron identified that underperformed their BaseRuns by eight wins since 2002, their average wins jumped from 74 to 86 in the following season. So the 2015 Rockies have that going for them.

There's a chance that someone in the Rockies' front office read Cameron’s article. Even if the Rockies didn't, they still think things will "even out" in 2015. Even better, all the injuries created playing time for Corey Dickerson to emerge. Coupled with Nolan Arenado's development at the plate, full seasons from him as well as Dickerson and Matzek give the Rockies hope for some upward progression. But in order to contend, the Rockies need Tulowitzki.

Even if the Rockies didn't think they were contenders, as wishy-washy as their record has been since the franchise's inception in 1993, one thing they have done is retain their franchise players. There is always a Larry Walker or Todd Helton or Tulowitzki for the fan base to root for. And gosh, Tulo is fun to watch both at the plate and in the field. Rockies fans have many fond memories from the 2007 "Rocktober" World Series run and Tulowitzki's clutch hitting and jump throws from deep in the hole are central to that time and led to the sale of many properly spelled jerseys. The Rockies' front office -- Bridich has been with the club since 2004 -- just doesn’t let fan favorites like that go easily. The closest precedent to a departed Rockies star leaving in his prime would be Matt Holliday and one of the guys they got back in that trade was Gonzalez. As bad as 2014 was for the Rockies, watching Tulowitzki put up MVP-type numbers (until his injury) made the losses bearable and still sent fans through the turnstiles.

Now, the Rockies could buck tradition and trade Tulowitzki to save some money, but then the question becomes what would that money be spent on? The Rockies believe, perhaps justifiably, that free agent pitchers don't like coming to Colorado. Justin Morneau at age 33 is the oldest starting position player, and the rest of the lineup is in its mid-to-late 20s, so the position players are pretty much etched in stone. I guess you could spend that money on Arenado, who might be the next face of the franchise, but with Scott Boras in his corner, there's no guarantee of a long-term extension.

Tulowitzki, meanwhile, is locked up until 2021, so he's with the Rockies for as long as the Rockies want unless he pulls a front office no-no and vocally demands a trade. However, as valuable as he is to the Rockies and as loath as they are to move him, their asking price would presumably be steep. The Mets? Well, it turns out they think they are contenders, too. They'd probably have to give up a major league pitcher, and some combination of a shortstop and minor league prospects such as catcher Kevin Plawecki or pitcher Noah Syndergaard. The problem though, because of Tulowitzki's injuries, is most teams aren't willing to pay that price.

More likely, if the Rockies are languishing around the All-Star break in 2015, you might see the trade rumors heat up. Perhaps both Tulowitzki and Gonzalez will be sent out of town, which would be the closest thing to a fire sale in the Rockies' history. Yet with a relatively young roster with proven major league talent, it would be far from the complete sandblasting seen in recent years with the Cubs and Astros.

Bridich said during his introductory news conference that he believes the Rockies will be better in 2015. The bounce in the standings will vindicate the new front office, buying a bit of fan goodwill in the process. It might not be enough of an improvement to make the Rockies contenders, but everyone from Tulowitzki to those who wear his error shirt should be happier as he keeps generating oohs and ahhs from Denver, not New York.

Richard Bergstrom runs the Rockies Zingers blog.