WASHINGTON -- Mike Rizzo wants us to believe the Washington Nationals are all set in the outfield.
"We like our outfield depth," the general manager said Thursday after a news conference to introduce new second baseman Daniel Murphy. When asked if there was a chance of the team re-signing center fielder Denard Span, who became a free agent in November, Rizzo called the possibility "remote."
Twenty-four hours later, the possibility of the Nats re-signing Span now stands at zero. That’s because later on Thursday, Span and the Giants reached agreement on a three-year, $31 million deal. But that matters not to Washington. Because, you know, the Nationals are all good in the outfield. At least that’s what Mike Rizzo wants us to believe.
I’m not buying it.
If everything goes right -- if Michael Taylor proves he’s ready for prime time in his second full season, and if Jayson Werth can stay healthy for six full months, and if Bryce Harper can manage to play 150-plus games again -- then yeah, it’s all good.
But here are the facts:
Taylor, who as a rookie was budgeted for fourth outfielder duty but then pressed into the starting center fielder role when Span got hurt, fanned 158 times in 138 games and showed that he wasn’t ready to be the leadoff hitter the Nationals needed (and still do).
Werth, who turns 37 in May, is coming off a season in which injuries limited him to 88 games, the third time in four years he's failed to play at least 130 games. When he was healthy, he showed that he's a mere fraction of the fielder he was earlier in his career, accounting for minus-11 defensive runs saved, which is really hard to do in just 88 games. Oh, and his UZR/150 (an advanced stat that measures range) was third worst in the National League.
Harper, who was the best player in baseball last season, is supposed to be the one sure thing in the outfield. But considering how hard he plays and that last year was the first time in his career he topped 140 games, the possibility of the reigning MVP missing time next season can’t be discounted.
Sure, there are other outfielders on the roster. Clint Robinson, Tyler Moore, and Matt den Dekker, all of whom spackled holes to varying degrees of effectiveness, remain. But if you look up "fourth major league outfielder" in the dictionary, you probably won't see a picture of any of one of them accompanying the definition. All of which is to say, despite Rizzo’s public affirmations to the contrary, the Nationals could still use some outfield help. Not to mention a leadoff hitter and another left-handed bat.
Span would have checked all three boxes, but he’s no longer in play. Gerardo Parra checks 2.5 boxes (he is not really a true leadoff guy). So does Dexter Fowler (he is a switch-hitter who is better batting righty). After those two ... um ... well ... did I mention that Gerardo Parra and Dexter Fowler are still available?
Fowler won’t come cheap -- certainly not as cheaply as Parra, who struggled after being traded to Baltimore last year. But Rizzo and the Nationals have proven repeatedly -- including last January when they didn’t really need a starter but gave Max Scherzer $210 million anyway -- that they are not afraid to a) wait, b) surprise folks, and c) spend big.
In other words, don’t be shocked if the firm of Werth, Taylor, & Harper adds a new partner some time in the near future.