I will begin this week's column with the last paragraph of last week's:

"As for my prediction: Forrest will win a sloppy fight on points. He will keep Mayorga at the end of his jab, step around him, and tie him up whenever Mayorga tries to unload. Mayorga already has demonstrated the ability to hurt Vernon with a single shot, so it is likely that, win or lose, Vernon will experience some rough spots. However, his defensive ability, combined with his defensive mindset coming into the fight, should get him through with a big-fight win."

Which is exactly what happened. Except the part about the win.

I thought Vernon won. He consistently landed more clean punches than Mayorga. Over the first half of the fight, Forrest's punches were clearly not thrown with bad intentions, and welterweight champ Mayorga offered his opinion of Vernon's power by mocking him, sticking his chin out and asking for more. When Forrest obliged, the champ merely took the shots right in the face. He just walked right through them.

To some -- to most actually, judging from the generally positive reaction to the decision from the media and boxing fans -- Mayorga walking through Vernon's punches was simply an indication of the futility of the challenger's resistance. Certainly in most of the early rounds it looked as though Forrest was ready to topple. He appeared scared, stumbling around the ring on those skinny, unsure legs. In terms of the general impression, Mayorga carried the first half of the fight, no question.

But if you took a closer look, there is a great gulf between the impression left by the confident, wild-swinging Mayorga, and the actual record of points scored by the two contestants for the welterweight crown.

Yes, Vernon repeatedly collapsed to the canvas when Mayorga wrestled with him on the inside. Yes, it did appear that Vernon was hurt several times from punches landed on the back of his head. And yes, Mayorga was the aggressor.

But in boxing, points are awarded for effective aggression. Mayorga's aggression was only effective insofar as it left an impression of effectiveness.

Blows to the back of the head are not scoring blows. Sure, they can hurt, but they are not supposed to be scored by the judges. Throw-downs in clinches are not scoring maneuvers. Sure, they can wear an opponent out, but they are not supposed to be scored by the judges. Hard blows struck on an opponent's arms, shoulders and gloves are indeed supposed to be scored by the judges, but not to the extent of clean punches landed on the opponent's face or body.

Vernon Forrest picked off nearly every punch Mayorga threw. Many of those punches were thrown with real force and indeed landed on Vernon's arms, shoulders and gloves, and they had their effect. These picked-off shots, combined with the fact that Vernon was running and Mayorga was chasing, and the fact that Vernon kept going down to the canvas when he was pushed, and the fact that Vernon appeared hurt several times when Mayorga landed big punches to the back of his head, created an overall impression that Mayorga was dominating the bout.

So you can argue that Mayorga's aggression combined with the hard shots he landed to the arms, shoulders and gloves, outweighed Forrest's defense and the clean but soft punches he landed to Mayorga's face and body.

But if you take away the push-downs and back-of-the-head shots, it seems to me that Vernon's clean punching and defense was a little more effective over the first half of the fight than Mayorga's blocked hammers and go-for-broke aggression.

Over the second half of the fight, while Vernon was legitimately hurt once by a clean right hand, it was he who was generally doing the hurting. Several times Mayorga was caught and shaken by left hooks that capped off Forrest's combinations. This was especially true when Forrest began those combinations with both hands to the body.

In retrospect, it seems clear that Vernon should have taken at least one confidence-building tuneup before taking on Mayorga again. A more confident Vernon might have fought as he did over the second half of the fight, right from the start. From the way Mayorga reacted to Vernon's left hook in the later rounds, a more confident Vernon might have knocked Mayorga out.

But he did not knock Mayorga out. Nor did he win a decision, no matter how yours truly had it scored. So it is Mayorga with the more interesting future at the moment.

While HBO has reportedly expressed interest in airing a third Mayorga-Forrest fight, Mayorga himself says he wants either junior middleweight champ Oscar De La Hoya or middleweight king Bernard Hopkins. To Hopkins the welterweight champ sent the message that he is willing to meet at 154 pounds.

No matter who he is matched up with, Mayorga will draw the attention of the boxing world. His punching power, aggression and showmanship will never fail to entertain, whether he wins or loses. Unless, however, he refines both his offensive and defensive skills, he will more often than not lose against elite opposition.

Mayorga has some of the same qualities that Rocky Marciano was able to harness to achieve greatness -- even his penchant for throwing bombs at the back of his opponent's head. But the physical and mental toughness and strength Mayorga showed against Forrest will not be enough to overcome other elite fighters who have those same qualities and are also highly skilled.

Marciano developed a style that enabled him to get the most out of his strength and toughness -- crouching low, bobbing and weaving, and purposely landing punches on his opponents biceps so they would not be able to use their arms later in the fight. Mayorga fights without a clear gameplan, and without the requisite respect for his opponent. Unless he refines his considerable gifts, his crude style and overconfidence will backfire in the not-too-distant future.

Max Kellerman is a studio analyst for ESPN2's "Friday Night Fights" and the host of the show "Around The Horn."