Every Sunday, I spend some time updating my numbers, based on the closing market prices of that day's games, the results and data from the games, and my prior team ratings. Next, I compare my new projections to the early market when sportsbooks start posting lines for the following week's games. Finally, I write about the games that stand out right away.
Unfortunately, this week, only one game is showing a big enough discrepancy to make it worth betting right away. That tends to happen more frequently in the second half of the season, as the markets become more efficient and my projections adjust, too. When the margins are so thin, it's worth it to wait on injury and COVID-19 news as it comes in during the week.
To make matters worse, the game (Tennessee at Baltimore) was pulled because the Ravens were playing on Sunday night. The line prior to kickoff, however, was Ravens -6.5 or -7, depending on the shop, and we should see a similar number when the game is reposted.