A prime time, top-five showdown of the Georgia Bulldogs and Clemson Tigers is expected to generate the most betting handle of any game this weekend, but it's not a situation that instills fear into the oddsmakers. Sharp money has already driven this number down from Clemson -4 to -3, and now the recreational bettors will take it from here and represent a giant portion of the handle.
"It will definitely be public money," FanDuel communications director Kevin Hennessy told ESPN. "We typically see interest starting Thursday and it then becomes a crescendo into Saturday night. You'll see people who take their winnings from early games and play them into Saturday evening games."
Season openers operate on a unique timeline, given the odds have been posted throughout the summer. After this weekend, a game will typically move throughout the week but for this clash, oddsmakers do not expect any more sharp action. "I think the line is just going to stay at three," said Ed Salmons, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook vice president of oddsmaking and risk management, sharing that almost all of the SuperBook's handle will arrive this weekend.
Georgia has encountered numerous injuries during training camp and some at key positions but that should not induce any line movement. "Teams like Georgia and Alabama, when a guy gets hurt, the guy behind him is probably better," Salmons said. "They just recruit at such a high level. They can almost field two teams. Same with Clemson." -- Doug Kezirian
Every Thursday during the college football season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh and David M. Hale will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's game
Duke Blue Devils (-6.5, 60.5) at Charlotte 49ers, 7 p.m. ET
Hale: The trend line in Durham is pointing in the wrong direction. David Cutcliffe raised the program from the dead, but the past two seasons have been a disaster, and 2020 sure looked close to rock bottom. But much of the struggles could be related back to one big issue: The quarterback. Or, more specifically, the QB's turnovers. Duke was solid on defense, was the ACC's best on special teams, and had a genuine star in running back Mateo Durant. But when a team turns the ball over 14 more times than any other team in the country -- well, that's tough to overcome.
Now, the Blue Devils have a new QB (Gunnar Holmberg) and a fresh start in 2021. Will they be much better? Your mileage here may vary, but there's no reason to assume they've fallen so far as to be favored by less than a TD against Charlotte. Even during last year's misery, Duke still whipped the 49ers 53-19 in Durham, and while this one will be played on the road, it's not exactly a hostile environment.
Then keep this in mind: Under Cutcliffe, Duke is 28-4 against teams outside the Power 5, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine openers. They're 22-7 ATS outside the ACC since 2014. There's really not a number that suggests this game is anything other than a blowout. Load up on Duke in Week 1, then maybe keep away from the Blue Devils until basketball season.
Pick: Duke -6.5