Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week's best bets are listed below, in no particular order.
For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic.
Season results: 27-21 (+3.8 units)
Jalen Hurts over 30.5 pass attempts (-115)
We're 6-2 and up 3.3 units on pass attempt props this season, and yet the gap between Hurts' prop and our projection is the largest we've had in the column. The Eagles' scheme and situation are conducive to big passing numbers, as Philadelphia is calling the game script-adjusted fifth pass-heaviest offense, and -- as a result of trailing often -- also has the ninth-highest expected pass rate. Hurts has, in turn, reached 35 pass attempts in three of four games this season, with 23 attempts against the 49ers in Week 2 being the lone exception. If we include his three full games as a rookie, Hurts has hit 31 attempts in five of seven games, averaging 36.9 per game. The Panthers have only faced more than 30 attempts once this season (Jets in Week 1), but their other three opponents (Cowboys, Texans, Saints) are operating run-first offenses, with the latter two extremely run-heavy. The Eagles are a road underdog, so the combination of the scheme and projected game script suggest Hurts will clear this line.