Week 14 began on Thursday with the Chicago Bears winning as home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. Home underdogs of four points are fewer are now 17-15-1 outright this season, on pace to be the best mark since 1994. Over the past two seasons, they are winning outright at a .500 rate.
This week, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders and potentially the Los Angeles Rams could fit that situation. Here are some of the top notes and trends from each matchup.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
• Baltimore has won eight straight games and has covered five of its past six games.
• Lamar Jackson is 7-1-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 3-0-1 as a favorite.
• Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games, and 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog this season (3-2 outright).
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-12.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Washington has won back-to-back games outright as an underdog, including last week as a 10.5-point underdog against Carolina. Since 2000, teams coming off a win as a double-digit underdog are 28-47-3 ATS.
• Aaron Rodgers is 56-38-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of at least four points, including 5-1 ATS this season.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9), 1 p.m. ET
• Drew Lock is making his second career start for Denver after covering last week. Quarterbacks within their first two career starts are 15-4 ATS this season (7-2 ATS in second start).
• When the total is 42 or higher, the under is 15-3-1 in Denver games over the past two seasons.
• Since 2013, Houston is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of at least eight points.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET
• San Francisco is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright as an underdog this season. Jimmy Garoppolo is 7-3 outright and 8-2 ATS as an underdog in his career (6-3 outright and 7-2 ATS with San Francisco).
• The 49ers are 4-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3, winning each game by at least 13 points.
• New Orleans has covered seven straight games as a favorite of four or fewer points, dating back to 2016.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Cincinnati has covered eight of the past nine meetings (7-2 outright). However, Baker Mayfield is 2-0 against Cincinnati (1-1 ATS).
• Over the past 15 seasons, teams 1-6 or worse coming off their first wins of the season are 14-5 ATS. Earlier this season, 1-7 Miami upset Indianapolis outright as an 11-point underdog one week after its first win.
• The Bengals have lost nine straight division games outright (4-4-1 ATS).
• This is the sixth straight game Cleveland has been favored in, its longest streak since 1994. Cleveland is 4-4 outright as a favorite this season.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• Over the past 20 seasons, teams are 14-21 ATS in their first games after replacing a head coach midseason.
• Over the past two seasons, Carolina is 3-9 ATS in the second half of the season (1-11 outright).
• Atlanta is 4-11 ATS (5-6 SU) as a favorite over the past two seasons, including going 0-2 outright this season.
• Atlanta is 7-1 ATS and outright in the past eight meetings, including winning and covering four straight. Matt Ryan is 9-2 ATS at home against Carolina in his career.
• Atlanta has lost five straight home games (1-4 ATS).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13), 1 p.m. ET
• Minnesota is 0-3 ATS over the past two seasons as a double-digit favorite.
• Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games (covered last week). It has lost five straight games outright.
• David Blough is making his second career start for Detroit after covering last week. Quarterbacks within their first two career starts are 15-4 ATS this season (7-2 ATS in second start).
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Over the past three seasons, the over is 14-5 in Ryan Fitzpatrick starts (6-3 this season).
• New York is 1-5 ATS and outright as a favorite over the past two seasons, including 0-3 this season.
• New York is 1-9 outright and 2-8 ATS in division games over the past two seasons, including 0-5 ATS and SU at home.
• Miami has won four straight and covered three straight meetings. Since 2016, Miami is 5-1-1 ATS against New York.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• Frank Reich is 3-8-1 ATS in his career against teams that entered with losing records including 1-4-1 ATS this season.
• Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS this season when T.Y. Hilton does not play (6-1-1 ATS with Hilton).
• Nine of Tampa Bay's past 10 games went over the total, with last week's game being the only exception. Four straight Tampa home games have gone over.
• Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS at home this season (1-4 outright).
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 4:05 p.m. ET
• Los Angeles is 1-5 outright as a single-digit favorite this season (0-5-1 ATS), including 0-2 outright as a road favorite.
• Gardner Minshew is 5-3 ATS including 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Jacksonville has failed to cover four straight games, allowing at least 26 points in each.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Andy Reid is 3-0 ATS against Bill Belichick in the regular season as Kansas City's head coach (0-2 ATS in playoffs).
• Patrick Mahomes is 4-0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. All five games went over the total.
• New England is 1-4 ATS against teams that entered with winning records this season. New England did not score more than 22 points in any of those games.
• Tom Brady is 7-2-1 ATS in his career as a home favorite of three or fewer points.
• Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 29-0 at home against quarterbacks under the age of 25 (19-10 ATS).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Pittsburgh has won each of Devlin Hodges first two starts as an underdog, with both games going under the total.
• Since Ben Roethlisberger's injury, Pittsburgh is 6-2-2 ATS and the under is 8-2 in those games.
• Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Arizona has lost five straight games outright (2-2-1 ATS in span).
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (-2.5), 4:25 p.m. ET
• All six of Ryan Tannehill's starts have gone over the total. Tannehill is 4-1-1 ATS this season.
• Oakland has failed to cover three straight games.
• Oakland has covered six of its past seven games as a home underdog, winning five of the past six games outright.
Seattle Seahawks (PK) at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Seattle has covered nine of its past 11 road games.
• Russell Wilson is 30-15-1 ATS in his career against teams that entered with winning records, including 15-4-1 ATS on the road.
• Seattle has won five straight games and covered four straight.
• Since the start of last season, Seattle is 9-3-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.
• Each of the past four meetings went over the total, with the past three meetings finishing over 10 points over the total.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Eli Manning is 7-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season.
• Road teams are 19-11-1 ATS on Monday Night in the past two seasons, including covering seven of the past eight.
• Road teams are 37-22-3 ATS in divisional games this season.
• Six of the past seven meetings went over the total.
• Philadelphia has won five straight meetings but is only 2-3 ATS in that span. Overall, Philadelphia has won 17 of the past 21 meetings (13-8 ATS).