All five AP top-5 teams are in action in Week 9, all as double-digit favorites. As it happens, fading top-5 teams in certain spots has proved profitable so far this season. AP top-5 teams are 5-13 against the spread (2-1 last week) against unranked opponents and 3-10 ATS (2-0 last week) when laying at least 20 points. Overall, favorites of 20 points or more are 13-20-1 ATS (.394).
Underdogs in games between FBS teams are winning straight up at a .299 clip (56-131), on pace to be the best mark in the past 40 seasons (the current best is .288 in 1984). However, we saw some regression in Week 8. Underdogs getting 14 or more points went 6-11 ATS following a 34-18-1 ATS mark through Week 7.
Meanwhile, favorites in ranked vs. ranked matchups have fared well. Teams laying points in those spots are 12-2-1 ATS this season.
There are some interesting trends to keep an eye on in C-USA and the AAC as well. Home teams are a combined 9-25 ATS (3-14 C-USA, 6-11 AAC), and underdogs are a combined 25-9 ATS (13-4 C-USA, 12-5 AAC). There is likely some overlap there with road teams getting points.
And because it's Halloween ...
• Since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, AP top-5 teams favored by 10 points or more are 15-5 ATS on Halloween. All top-5 teams are in action and favored by double digits this Saturday.
Some other fun Halloween angles (since 1978 unless otherwise noted):
• Michigan (1-5 ATS), Indiana (1-4 ATS) and Maryland (1-4 ATS) are a combined 3-13 ATS on Halloween.
• The only schools with at least four ATS wins without a loss on Halloween hail from the ACC -- Virginia Tech (5-0 ATS) and North Carolina (4-0 ATS).
• Georgia is 0-4 ATS/SU in its past four games on Halloween (all against Florida), but the Bulldogs' opponent this Saturday hasn't been much better (Kentucky 1-4 ATS on Halloween).
Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Boston College Eagles at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-24, 61), Noon ET (on ABC)
• The Eagles are 4-1 ATS (1-4 SU) against AP No. 1 teams in the FBS era. Their last game against No. 1 came at Florida State in 2014 (L, 20-17).
• Clemson is a favorite of at least 24 points against an unranked opponent for the 20th straight game (12-8 ATS, 20-0 SU), the longest such streak in the FBS era.
• Clemson is 17-6 ATS versus ACC opponents since 2018.
• Clemson is 19-8 ATS in its past 27 games as a double-digit favorite.
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 42.5) at Kentucky Wildcats, Noon ET (on SEC Network)
• Georgia is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings since Mark Stoops took over at Kentucky in 2013.
• Kentucky is 11-3 ATS against ranked opponents since 2015 (two of three ATS losses were to Georgia), including 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
• Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its past five games as a favorite. However, Kentucky also is 4-1 ATS in its past five games as an underdog.
• This would be the second-lowest total for a Kentucky game against a ranked opponent since at least 2000 (42 is the lowest against No. 25 Louisville in 2012). Overall, Kentucky is 3-11 ATS when the total is 43 or lower, including 0-3 ATS under Stoops.
Memphis Tigers at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-7, 55), Noon ET (on ESPN)
• This would be the third straight game against an AP top-10 team in which unranked Memphis has been a single-digit underdog (previous two both came against UCF in 2018). Memphis had been a double-digit underdog in all 17 prior games we have spread data for versus top-10 teams dating to 1978 (missing three games before 1984).
• The Tigers are 0-4 ATS against ranked opponents since 2019.
• Cincinnati is 0-2 SU versus Memphis dating to last season compared to 15-1 SU versus all other opponents.
• The under is 14-3 in Cincinnati games since the start of last season.
Michigan State Spartans at No. 13 Michigan Wolverines (-24.5, 53), Noon ET (on Fox)
• Michigan State has covered 10 of the past 12 meetings. However, the Wolverines have covered two straight.
• Michigan State has failed to cover four straight versus ranked opponents dating to last season.
• Michigan has covered five straight games as a favorite, while the Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their past four games as an underdog.
• In 42 previous meetings since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, Michigan has been at least a 20-point favorite only three other times (2016, 1992, 1991). The Wolverines went 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS in those games. If extended to favorites of 16 or more points, the Wolverines are 6-0 SU but 0-5-1 ATS.
No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 45.5), Noon ET (on ESPN2)
• Kansas State is 10-3 ATS versus Big 12 opponents since Chris Klieman took over in 2019.
• The Wildcats are 49-24-1 ATS as an underdog since 2009 (8-2 ATS under Klieman), including 28-12-1 ATS as a road underdog (5-1 ATS under Klieman).
• Ranked underdogs are 2-14-1 ATS (2-15 SU) this season, including 0-2 ATS/SU versus unranked opponents.
• West Virginia has covered three straight meetings dating to 2017.
• Teams laying four or fewer points against ranked opponents are 23-8-1 ATS (24-8 SU) since 2019. Dating to 2017, unranked teams laying four or fewer points against ranked opponents are 16-7-1 ATS (20-4 SU).
No. 20 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-2.5, 60) at Georgia State Panthers, Noon ET (on ESPNU)
• Coastal Carolina has covered eight of its past 10 games versus FBS opponents, including a five-game SU win streak, which is its longest since becoming an FBS member in 2017.
• The Chanticleers are 7-1 ATS in road games dating to last season.
• On average, Georgia State has been nearly a 39-point underdog (38.6) in six all-time meetings with ranked opponents (0-6 SU, 4-2 ATS) and never less than a 17-point underdog (a 34-31 loss versus fellow Sun Belt foe Louisiana in this season's opener).
• Georgia State is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2019.
No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones (-28.5, 52) at Kansas Jayhawks, Noon ET (on FS1)
• Since 2015, ranked teams outside the top 20 are 8-26 ATS when favored by 27 points or more.
• Kansas has lost nine straight games by double digits dating to last season (1-7-1 ATS during streak), which is currently the longest active streak in FBS.
• The Jayhawks' last winning season came in 2008. This will be their 89th game since then as a double-digit underdog. No other FBS team has been a double-digit underdog more often over that span, and only New Mexico State (81) has done so in at least 70 games.
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20, 57) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 3:30 ET (on ABC)
• This is the 60th instance since 1978 of a team dropping at least one spot within the AP top 5 after a win of at least 20 points (Fighting Irish went from No. 3 to No. 4 after a 45-3 win at Pittsburgh last week). In the previous 59 instances, teams are 39-19-1 ATS in their following game, including 31-12-1 ATS since 1996.
• Notre Dame has won 29 straight games as a double-digit favorite. Its last loss came as a 20-point favorite against Duke in 2016.
• Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its past seven games versus ranked opponents.
No. 17 Indiana Hoosiers (-10.5, 52.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 3:30 ET (on Big Ten Network)
• Indiana is 1-6-1 ATS as a road favorite under Tom Allen, including five straight ATS losses.
• Rutgers is 43-28-2 ATS as an underdog under Greg Schiano, including last week's upset win at Michigan State.
• Rutgers has lost 28 straight games outright to ranked opponents dating to 2009 (last win came against No. 23 South Florida).
• The total has gone over in five straight road games for Indiana.
LSU Tigers (-3, 65.5) at Auburn Tigers, 3:30 ET (on CBS)
• Since 2004, there have been 26 games involving unranked teams that were both ranked in the first AP poll. Favorites of three or fewer points are 8-18 ATS in those games (under also 18-8). However, road teams laying points in 12 of the 26 games went 10-2 ATS (4-2 ATS when laying three points or less).
• The last meeting with both teams unranked was 1999. Auburn won 41-7 as a 9-point underdog.
• Each of the past four meetings was decided by five points or less. LSU is 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS).
• Auburn has failed to cover three straight when the line is between -3 and +3 dating to last season.
Texas Longhorns at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 58.5), 4 ET (on Fox)
• Tom Herman is 16-6-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 11-6-1 ATS with Texas. However, he has alternated covering in that spot each of his past nine games (did not cover previous game).
• Texas is 11-5-1 ATS against ranked teams under Herman. The under is 13-4 in those games.
• Since 2010, Oklahoma State is 8-3 ATS versus unranked teams that were top 25 in the season's first AP poll. The under is 13-3 in the same situation for the Cowboys dating to 2006.
No. 25 Boise State Broncos (-14, 49) at Air Force Falcons, 6 ET (on CBSSN)
• Boise State is 21-12-2 ATS on the road since Bryan Harsin took over in 2014.
• The Broncos have covered four of their past five games as a favorite.
• Air Force is 19-9-1 ATS as an underdog since 2014, including 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-31, 58.5), 7 ET (on ESPN)
• Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.
• The Bulldogs have failed to cover four straight versus AP top-5 teams since 2018.
• This will be the 73rd straight game Alabama has been a favorite, surpassing its longest such streak in the FBS era (previous was 72 straight from the BCS championship game in January 2010 to September 2015). In fact, the two streaks sandwich a single game as a 1-point underdog at No. 8 Georgia in October 2015 (W, 38-10).
• Since 2010, Alabama has been an underdog once in 144 games. The fewest times any other FBS team has been an underdog over that span is 14.
• Alabama has scored at least 35 points in 18 straight games since the start of last season, the longest active streak in FBS.
• The under is 11-2 in the past 13 meetings dating to 2007.
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-12, 63.5) at No. 18 Penn State Nittany Lions, 7:30 ET (on ABC)
• This will be the 17th straight regular-season game Ryan Day has been a favorite to begin his head-coaching career (12-4 ATS, 16-0 SU in previous 16). Since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, only four head coaches have longer streaks to start their careers: Bear Bryant (Alabama), Josh Heupel (UCF -- active streak of 29 including this week), Mark Helfrich (Oregon) and Barry Switzer (Oklahoma).
• In the past 15 seasons, Ohio State is 18-4-1 ATS (19-4 SU) in road games against ranked opponents, including 16-3-1 ATS (17-3 SU) as a visitor versus ranked Big Ten teams.
• The Buckeyes have won a team-record 16 straight conference games against ranked opponents (10-6 ATS).
• Penn State has failed to cover 11 of its past 14 games versus AP top-5 teams.
• The Nittany Lions are 1-12-1 ATS following a loss since 2015.
• The over is 22-5-2 in Penn State games versus ranked opponents since 2012, including 16-5-2 since James Franklin took over in 2014.
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies (-12.5, 54.5), 7:30 ET (on SEC Network)
• Arkansas is the only team with four ATS wins without a loss this season. Since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, the Razorbacks have never started a season 5-0 ATS.
• The Razorbacks are 12-5 ATS in their past 17 games versus AP top-10 teams.
• Texas A&M has won eight straight meetings outright.
• The Aggies are 9-22 ATS in games coming off more than six days of rest since 2008.
Missouri Tigers at No. 10 Florida Gators (-13, 61.5), 7:30 ET (on SEC Network Alt)
• Missouri has failed to cover six straight road games dating to last season.
• Florida is 10-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2017.
• The Gators have covered five of their past six games as a home favorite dating to last season.
• The total has gone over in all three Florida games in 2020.
Navy Midshipmen at No. 22 SMU Mustangs (-13, 58.5), 7:30 ET (on ESPN2)
• Navy is 32-16 ATS (.667) as a road underdog since 2004. Only Northern Illinois (31-15 ATS) has a better such cover percentage over that span (min. 15 games).
• The Midshipmen have covered four straight following an outright loss dating to last season.
• SMU lost 42-13 to Cincinnati last week. Since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, double-digit favorites ranked outside the top 20 are 17-5 ATS following a loss of at least 25 points.
No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels (-7, 61.5) at Virginia Cavaliers, 8 ET (on ACC Network)
• Since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, this is just the fourth instance of a team (North Carolina) dropping in the rankings following a win of at least 20 points over a ranked opponent. The previous three went 1-2 ATS (3-0 SU) in their next game.
• If the line is below -7, AP top-15 teams are 47-28 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 7 points versus unranked opponents since 2014, including 13-4 ATS the past two seasons.
• Virginia is 13-4-1 ATS against ranked teams since 2014.
• The Cavaliers have covered three straight versus North Carolina since 2017.
• The over is 4-1 in Virginia games this season.
No. 24 Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 69) at Texas Tech Red Raiders, 8 ET (on Fox)
• Oklahoma has failed to cover five of its past six games as a double-digit favorite.
• Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog dating to last season.
• The total has gone over in eight of the past nine meetings dating to 2011.
• The over is 26-11-1 in Texas Tech games against ranked opponents since 2011.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 11 BYU Cougars (-29, 52.5), 10:15 ET (on ESPN)
• Western Kentucky is 4-1-1 ATS in its past six games versus ranked opponents dating to 2011.
• The Hilltoppers are 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight games following an 8-3 ATS stretch after Tyson Helton took over in 2019.
• BYU is 5-1 ATS this season and has now been favored in each of its first seven games.
• This is the first time BYU has been favored by at least 24 points in four of its first seven games since at least 1985. That is already tied for the most such instances through the Cougars' first nine games as well, also done in 1985.