<
>

College football Championship Week betting trends: Why Purdue might cover vs. Michigan

Charlie Jones and the Purdue Boilermakers look to upset the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday night. AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Championship week has finally arrived. As teams look to hoist their respective conference trophies at the end of the weekend, the College Football Playoff picture will finally take shape as two of the four teams vying for a spot already have a strong case no matter the outcome of their title games.

Things kick off on Friday night as odd-on Heisman favorite Caleb Williams and the No. 4 USC Trojans look to make a final statement to the CFP committee by avenging their loss to No.11 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

On Saturday afternoon, Sonny Dykes, Max Duggan and the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs will look to do the same with a win over No. 10 Kansas State, a rematch of their thrilling matchup from late in October.

The championship week slate wraps up two key games in the SEC and Big Ten Championships as underdogs, LSU and Purdue look to tray and cause some chaos with upset victories over heavily favored No. 1Georgia and No. 2 Michigan.

All of this drama makes great action for bettors also looking to score before the bowl season begins in a few weeks.

Check out all of the notes and trends courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.


Conference USA Championship

North Texas at UTSA (-8, 68)
Friday 7:30 p.m. ET, Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

  • North Texas is 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season

  • Seven of the last eight meetings between North Texas and UTSA have gone under the total.

  • UTSA is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season.

  • Three of the last four Conference USA championship games have gone over the total.

Pac-12 Championship Game

No. 11 Utah vs No. 4 USC (-3, 67)
Friday 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

  • USC is 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • USC has covered each of its last three games (all as a favorite).

  • Six of the last nine Pac-12 Championship games have gone under the total.

  • Utah is 0-3 ATS in games in which the spread is between +3 and -3 this season.

MAC Championship

Toledo (-2.5, 56) vs Ohio
Saturday 12 p.m. ET on ESPN, Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

  • Ohio has covered eight consecutive games, the longest active cover streak in the FBS.

  • Ohio is 9-3 ATS this season, tied for the 4th-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Toledo has failed to cover each of its past five games as a favorite.

  • Toledo is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship

No. 10 Kansas State vs No. 3 TCU (-2.5, 61.5)
Saturday 12 p.m. ET on ABC, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

  • TCU is 9-2-1 ATS this season, the third-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • TCU is 7-2-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

  • Kansas State has covered each of its last four games against AP top-5 teams dating back to the 2015 season.

  • All five of the Big 12 Championship games have gone under the total.

Sun Belt Championship

Coastal Carolina at Troy (-10, 48)
Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama

  • Troy is 9-3 ATS this season, tied for the 4th-best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Troy is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Coastal Carolina is 6-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2020 season.

  • Each of the last five meetings between Troy and Coastal Carolina have gone over the total.

SEC Championship Game

No. 14 LSU vs No. 1 Georgia (-17, 50.5)
Saturday 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

  • LSU has covered each of its last five meetings with Georgia.

  • LSU is 16-4-1 ATS against AP top-10 teams since the start of the 2017 season.

  • Eight of Georgia's last nine games against AP-ranked opponents have gone under the total.

  • 11 of the last 13 SEC Championship games have gone over the total.

American Athletic Championship

No. 22 UCF at No. 18 Tulane (-3.5, 56.5)
Saturday 4 p.m. ET on ABC, Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana

  • Tulane is 10-2 ATS this season, tied with Oregon State for the best cover percentage in the FBS.

  • Tulane is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season.

  • Tulane is 15-4 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2019 season, the third-best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span.

  • 12 of UCF's last 15 road games have gone over the total.

Mountain West Championship Game

Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5, 53.5)
Saturday 4 p.m. ET, Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

  • Five of Boise State's six home games have gone over the total this season.

  • Boise State is 15-6 ATS against Fresno State since the start of the 2001 season.

  • Fresno State is 15-6 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2017 season.

  • Five of Fresno State's last six games have gone over the total.

Big Ten Championship Game

Purdue vs No. 2 Michigan (-16, 51.5)
Saturday 8 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

  • Purdue is 19-7 ATS against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2014 season.

  • Purdue is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the past five seasons.

  • Michigan has covered each of its last three meetings with Purdue.

  • Favorites are 3-8 ATS (7-4 SU) in the Big Ten Championship game.

Subway ACC Championship

No. 9 Clemson (-7.5, 63) vs No. 23 North Carolina
Saturday 8 p.m. ET on ABC, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

  • North Carolina is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Four of North Carolina's five games against teams with winning records have gone over the total.

  • Clemson is 5-1 ATS as a favorite in the ACC Championship game.

  • Four of the last five ACC Championship games have gone under the total.