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Every time the topic of FBS playoff expansion comes up for argument -- and at this time of year, that's just about every day -- someone inevitably breaks out talking points like "Expansion would ruin the integrity of the regular season!" Or "A three-loss team could win the national title!" Can you imagine what it would be like to follow the twists and turns of the regular season and watch a bunch of teams clinch playoff spots with thrilling conference title wins, then invite a ton of teams to the playoff party? Of course you can! It happens at every other level of the sport! And it's the most wonderful, chaotic mess! The Division II and Division III playoffs began last weekend, and now FCS joins the party. The 24-team FCS playoff begins on Saturday in Worcester, Massachusetts, and wraps up on Jan. 8 in Frisco, Texas. The early pairings, all on ESPN+, are as follows: Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word (3 p.m. ET). SP+ projection: UIW 31.2, SFA 24.8. Winner faces No. 1 Sam Houston next Saturday. UT Martin at Missouri State (4 p.m. ET). SP+ projection: MSU 36.7, UT Martin 22.4. Winner faces No. 8 Montana State. Sacred Heart at Holy Cross (noon ET). SP+ projection: Holy Cross 23.6, SHU 13.9. Winner faces No. 5 Villanova. UC Davis at South Dakota State (3 p.m. ET). SP+ projection: SDSU 30.9, UC Davis 17.2. Winner faces No. 4 Sacramento State. Florida A&M at Southeastern Louisiana (7 p.m. ET). SP+ projection: SELA 42.8, FAMU 29.6. Winner faces No. 3 James Madison. Northern Iowa at Eastern Washington (4 p.m. ET). SP+ projection: EWU 29.7, UNI 29.4. Winner faces No. 6 Montana. Davidson at Kennesaw State (2 p.m. ET). KSU 37.9, Davidson 18.4. Winner faces No. 7 ETSU. Southern Illinois at South Dakota (6 p.m. ET). USD 27.1, SIU 24.6. Winner faces No. 2 North Dakota State.
Only three teams have won national titles in the past decade, and they happen to occupy the top three seeds. The first-round action is well-distributed, starting at noon ET and lasting until about 11 p.m., and the headliner falls right in the middle -- Northern Iowa-Eastern Washington pits one of the best defenses in FCS against one of the best offenses. Using my FCS SP+ rankings, let's rank the field from least likely to most likely to take home the crown.  24. Davidson (8-2)SP+ rank: 72nd (32nd offense, 102nd defense)
Advancement odds: 8% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.4% to win the title The Wildcats have one of the most fun, run-heavy offenses at the FCS level -- they average 349 rushing yards and 112 passing yards per game -- and have scored at least 28 in nine straight games. But the defense is usually what holds them back against good teams.
 23. Florida A&M (9-2)SP+ rank: 39th (54th offense, 35th defense)
Advancement odds: 3% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.4% to win the title A 7-6 loss to Jackson State in Week 1 ended up costing the Rattlers a spot in the SWAC championship, but their only other loss was to USF, and they've won their past four games by double digits. Linebacker Isaiah Land is otherworldly: 25.5 TFLs, 19 sacks, three forced fumbles.  22. Sacred Heart (8-3)SP+ rank: 56th (122nd offense, seventh defense)
Advancement odds: 7% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.7% to win the title A stagnant 2-3 start nearly doomed the Pioneers, but they won six straight to take the Northeast Conference crown, allowing just 11.2 points per game in the process. Defensive end Kevin Peprah is a handful, and star RB Julius Chestnut's late-season return gave the offense a boost.  21. UC Davis (8-3)SP+ rank: 26th (66th offense, 16th defense)
Advancement odds: 15% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.8% to win the title Dan Hawkins' Aggies beat Tulsa in Week 1 and eked out a playoff bid despite late losses to EWU and Sacramento State. The defense attacks you from everywhere: 16 Aggies have at least 1.5 TFLs, led by linebacker Cam Trimble (9.5) and big tackle Bryce Rodgers (8.0).  20. Stephen F. Austin (8-3)SP+ rank: 27th (73rd offense, 14th defense)
Advancement odds: 8% to reach the quarterfinals, 1.1% to win the title The Lumberjacks lost to Texas Tech, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State by a combined 11 points. Receiver Xavier Gipson paces an explosive but inconsistent offense, and three linemen (Rayshad Nichols, BJ Thompson and Amad Murray) have combined for 33.5 TFLs.  19. UT Martin (9-2)SP+ rank: 36th (45th offense, 42nd defense)
Advancement odds: 10% to reach the quarterfinals, 1.3% to win the title The Skyhawks had won nine in a row before a loss at SE Missouri State without starting quarterback Keon Howard -- a Tulane grad transfer -- last week. Former blue-chip Alabama signee Eyabi Anoma has paced the defense with six sacks among 9.5 TFLs.  18. Holy Cross (9-2)SP+ rank: 31st (38th offense, 37th defense)
Advancement odds: 18% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title The Crusaders beat UConn and solid Yale and Monmouth teams early in the season before plowing through the Patriot League. The linebacker duo of Jacob Dobbs and Liam Anderson spends all day in your backfield and could give Holy Cross a good shot at its first playoff win.  17. Northern Iowa (6-5)SP+ rank: ninth (64th offense, second defense)
Advancement odds: 21% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title How good is the Missouri Valley? So good that a 6-5 team could make the playoff without much of a fuss. The Panthers played six playoff teams (beating three) and Iowa State this year, and their forever stellar defense can keep them in a game with anyone.  16. Southeastern Louisiana (8-3)SP+ rank: 12th (first offense, 111th defense)
Advancement odds: 9% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title Throw, throw and throw. SELA wings the ball constantly with QB Cole Kelley (398 passing yards per game) and has scored under 38 points just once all year. Granted, it has given up 28-plus seven times as well. Guaranteed entertainment value.  15. Sacramento State (9-2)SP+ rank: 22nd (47th offense, 20th defense)
Advancement odds: 33% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title After a 1-2 start, the Hornets gathered steam, beating Montana in Missoula and UC Davis in Davis on the way to the Big Sky title. End Josiah Erickson and linebacker Marcus Hawkins have combined for 30.5 TFLs, and nickelback extraordinaire Marte Mapu has four picks.  14. Incarnate Word (9-2)SP+ rank: 17th (fourth offense, 79th defense)
Advancement odds: 15% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title A win over Texas State ignited the Cardinals; they beat kindred offensive spirit Southeastern Louisiana 55-52 on their way to a 7-1 finish in the Southland. Cameron Ward has thrown for 349 yards per game to a diverse and exciting receiving corps. Defense: optional.  13. Eastern Washington (9-2)SP+ rank: 16th (second offense, 98th defense)
Advancement odds: 22% to reach the quarterfinals, 2% to win the title The Eagles came within four points of an unbeaten season. They dropped heartbreakers to Weber State and Montana State, which cost them a first-round bye, but hey, that just gives quarterback Eric Barriere (4,257 yards, 40 TDs) an extra game to pile on the passing yards.  12. Kennesaw State (9-1)SP+ rank: 19th (43rd offense, 17th defense)
Advancement odds: 48% to reach the quarterfinals, 3% to win the title The Owls started slowly, beating NAIA's Reinhardt by only 10 and losing big to Georgia Tech. But they haven't lost since. The offense, keyed by quarterback Xavier Shepherd, runs almost as much as first-round foe Davidson, and the defense gets hands on lots of passes.  11. ETSU (10-1)SP+ rank: 30th (67th offense, 21st defense)
Advancement odds: 44% to reach the quarterfinals, 3% to win the title Randy Sanders' Bucs walloped Vanderbilt and missed out on an unbeaten season by five points. RBs Quay Holmes and Jacob Saylors are prolific, and the defense is led by a pair of ballhawks: Alijah Huzzie and Tyree Robinson have combined for eight INTs and 14 breakups.  10. South Dakota State (8-3)SP+ rank: third (13th offense, 22nd defense)
Advancement odds: 52% to reach the quarterfinals, 3% to win the title The Jackrabbits beat two playoff teams and stomped Colorado State, but losses to three playoff teams by 13 points cost them a first-round bye. They might have to beat two top-five seeds just to reach the semifinals ... but they have the star power -- RB Pierre Strong, WRs Jaxon and Jadon Janke, etc. -- to do just that.  9. Southern Illinois (7-4)SP+ rank: 15th (ninth offense, 48th defense)
Advancement odds: 9% to reach the quarterfinals, 3% to win the title After beating SDSU and North Dakota and barely falling to Kansas State, the Salukis stumbled to the finish line, losing three of four (two to playoff teams). If QB Nic Baker and company reestablish their footing, they're capable of beating everyone in the playoff field.  8. South Dakota (7-4)SP+ rank: 14th (53rd offense, ninth defense)
Advancement odds: 12% to reach the quarterfinals, 4% to win the title The Coyotes rank 14th in SP+ ... and fifth in the Missouri Valley. A top-10 defense got them here: Only two opponents (North Dakota State and Missouri State) topped 21 points against linebacker Jack Cochrane (nine TFLs, four INTs, 10 pass breakups) and company.  7. Missouri State (8-3)SP+ rank: eighth (fifth offense, 47th defense)
Advancement odds: 39% to reach the quarterfinals, 4% to win the title The Bears hadn't made the playoffs in 30 years before Bobby Petrino came to Springfield. They won four in a row to reach the spring playoffs, and they've been downright awesome this fall, nearly beating Oklahoma State and topping 30 points in nine of 10 FCS games.  6. Montana (9-2)SP+ rank: 11th (59th offense, sixth defense)
Advancement odds: 57% to reach the quarterfinals, 5% to win the title Bobby Hauck's Grizzlies beat Washington in Week 1, and their only losses came by a combined 13 to EWU and Sacramento State. They outscored their last three opponents, including rival Montana State, by a combined 94-13. They're peaking at the right time.  5. Montana State (9-2)SP+ rank: 13th (87th offense, first defense)
Advancement odds: 51% to reach the quarterfinals, 6% to win the title The Bobcats ranked as high as second in SP+ early in the season but ran out of steam offensively. If they can produce on that end, though, the defense will take it from there. Ends Daniel Hardy and Amandre Williams have combined for 26.5 TFLs and 17 sacks. (Have you caught on to the fact that there are about 14 million awesome pass-rushers at the FCS level?)  4. Villanova (9-2)SP+ rank: 10th (23rd offense, 26th defense)
Advancement odds: 75% to reach the quarterfinals, 6% to win the title The 2009 national champs have won only two playoff games in the past 10 years, but the Cats are balanced and exciting, keyed by receivers Rayjoun Pringle and Jaaron Hayek (combined: 1,294 yards, 15 TDs) on offense and ball-hawking corner Christian Benford on D.  3. Sam Houston (10-0)SP+ rank: fifth (eighth offense, 31st defense)
Advancement odds: 77% to reach the quarterfinals, 10% to win the title The spring season offered Sam Houston an incredibly unique achievement opportunity: The Bearkats have won 20 games in the last nine months! They beat SDSU for the spring title, and they plowed through their spring slate, tested only by SFA. Can QB Eric Schmid, star RB Ramon Jefferson and company make two title runs in one calendar year?  2. James Madison (10-1)SP+ rank: second (11th offense, 18th defense)
Advancement odds: 88% to reach the quarterfinals, 15% to win the title The Dukes fell by a single point to Villanova in October and responded by winning their last six games by an average of 38-13. Before they head off to the Sun Belt, can they win their second national title in six years? In terms of high-level offense and defense, they might be the most balanced team in the country.  1. North Dakota State (10-1)SP+ rank: first (22nd offense, third defense)
Advancement odds: 79% to reach the quarterfinals, 25% to win the title Remember back in the spring, when offensive deficiencies held the Bison back and led to a quarterfinal exit in the playoffs? It would appear they've figured some things out. Cam Miller took over at quarterback late in the year, and NDSU has scored 44-plus in three of four games (including a 52-24 win over South Dakota last week). The defense is as sound as ever, and the Bison have a rock solid chance at their ninth national title in 11 seasons.
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