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In the first round of the 2021 FCS playoffs, UT Martin upset Missouri State and, after falling into a late-season funk, Southern Illinois made surprisingly easy work of South Dakota on the road. Meanwhile, Incarnate Word took down Stephen F. Austin in overtime, and Holy Cross scored its first-ever playoff win with a touchdown pass in the final seconds. It was a lot of fun! But now the top eight seeds join the party, and the playoffs really begin. Let's talk about what you need to know for this weekend's round of 16. First, here are the second-round pairings and their corresponding SP+ projections. (Full FCS, Division II and Division III SP+ ratings are housed here.) All times are Eastern, and all games will be on ESPN+. • No. 1 Sam Houston 38.2, Incarnate Word 30.2 (Saturday, 3 p.m.) • No. 8 Montana State 26.6, UT Martin 14.7 (Saturday, 4 p.m.) • No. 5 Villanova 31.8, Holy Cross 19.2 (Friday, 7 p.m.) • South Dakota State 30.8, No. 4 Sacramento State 21.2 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) • No. 6 Montana 30.0, Eastern Washington 27.5 (Friday, 9 p.m.) • No. 3 James Madison 41.7, Southeastern Louisiana 32.9 (Saturday, 2 p.m.) • Kennesaw State 24.4, No. 7 ETSU 20.1 (Saturday, 2 p.m.) • No. 2 North Dakota State 33.4, Southern Illinois 19.7 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) The action picks up immediately. Even if Holy Cross can't keep up with Villanova in Friday evening's first game, the second half of the Friday doubleheader could be a classic. Round 2's marquee game: Eastern Washington at MontanaAaron Best's EWU Eagles proved they can survive a good, old-fashioned rock fight last Saturday, beating Northern Iowa 19-9 on Roos Field. Star quarterback Eric Barriere ran for one touchdown and threw for another, and the Eagles' sometimes-maligned defense pulled off a stellar bend-don't-break routine. They allowed UNI to finish seven drives in EWU territory but forced three turnovers on downs (two inside the 5) and a long-missed field goal, and they shut the Panthers out in the second half. UNI's only points after the break came on a late intentional safety. Now comes a rematch. Eastern Washington must travel to Missoula to face a Montana team it beat at home, 34-28, in early October. Montana controlled much of that game, taking a 21-10 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Eagles scored three touchdowns in five minutes to take the lead. The clock expired with the Grizzlies at the EWU 13. Montana has won five games in a row and is coming off of a rousing 29-10 home win over rival Montana State two weeks ago. That win secured a bye for the Grizzlies, one that easily could have gone to EWU instead. The teams have identical SP+ ratings, with EWU ranking second on offense and Montana ranking seventh on defense. On paper, this couldn't be closer. Barriere has an incredible quartet of receivers -- Talolo Limu-Jones, Andrew Boston, Freddie Roberson and Efton Chism III all have between 709 and 907 yards on the season -- but he'll have to have time to find them against Patrick O'Connell (19.5 tackles for loss, 13 sacks) and an outstanding pass rush. This game is appointment viewing. Another "Prolific offense vs. excellent defense" matchupIf EWU-Montana isn't the most intriguing matchup of the weekend, it might be Southeastern Louisiana vs. James Madison. The Dukes are the No. 2 seed and one of the more balanced teams in the country -- they're the only team that ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive SP+ -- and their only blemish came in early October, when they hit the left upright on a potential game-winning field goal and fell, 28-27, at No. 5 seed Villanova. SP+ gives the Dukes the third-best title odds, but before they can get too far down the road, they've got to handle their business against a Southeastern Louisiana team that is basically a more extreme version of EWU. The Lions have scored at least 38 points in 11 of 12 games, but also have allowed at least 28 in seven. Their three losses came by scores of 45-42, 55-52 and 45-42, and their games average 77.7 combined points. Track meet specialists! Former Arkansas quarterback Cole Kelley pilots this ridiculous SELA offense. He's thrown for 4,727 yards and 42 touchdowns, much of it going to Austin Mitchell (69 catches, 1,055 yards, nine TDs). JMU has picked off 13 passes and limited opponents to a 53% completion rate, but corner Greg Ross and company haven't faced an offense quite this relentless. The Dukes are clear favorites, but this one should feature fireworks. Updated title oddsLast week, I took a look at each team's national title odds, per SP+ projections. Let's do the same here. The extreme long shots 16. UT Martin: 0.3%. At 37th in SP+, the Skyhawks are the lowest-ranked team remaining in the field, and they would potentially have to beat both Montana State and Sam Houston just to get to the semis. But they'll always have last week's wild win over Missouri State. 15. Holy Cross: 0.4%. The Crusaders scored a stirring win over Sacred Heart last weekend, but obviously the going gets tougher with a trip to Villanova. Both teams are better on defense, so perhaps Holy Cross could turn things into a low-scoring rock fight. But the run probably ends soon. 14. East Tennessee State: 0.7%. Randy Sanders' Bucs won their first conference title thanks primarily to a defense that dominated for most of the year but gave up 35 points in each of its last two games. Can they slow down Kennesaw State's run-heavy attack enough to score their first playoff win since 1996? 13. Sacramento State: 1%. Former Utah offensive coordinator Troy Taylor is 18-6 since taking over in 2019. The Hornets rise to the occasion in big games and struggle with lesser teams, which means SP+ isn't sold on them, but a visit from South Dakota State is about as big an occasion as possible. 12. Southern Illinois: 2%. The Salukis lost three of four to finish the regular season but sneaked into the playoffs and took down South Dakota. Their ceiling is high, but they might have to beat not only NDSU on Saturday, but also JMU and Sam Houston to take the crown. 11. Incarnate Word: 2%. A thrilling win over Stephen F. Austin didn't really improve the Cardinals' odds much. Why? Because Sam Houston is up next. Quarterback Cameron Ward and company can score on anyone, but stopping the Bearkats will be the primary issue hindering their chances of advancing. A puncher's chance 10. Eastern Washington: 3%. The Eagles, with their second-ranked offense and 87th-ranked defense (per SP+), remain long shots because of the road ahead: Beat Montana, and they would probably face JMU. Beat JMU, and NDSU might await. It's a gauntlet, but watch Barriere and company while you still can. 9. Southeastern Louisiana: 3%. The Lions may indeed be a more extreme EWU, but they face just as brutal a draw: They would have to beat JMU and the EWU/Montana winner just to get to the semis. But Kelley gives them a chance against anyone in the field. 8. Kennesaw State: 3%. The Owls are projected road favorites against ETSU, and their offense makes them a unique out against anyone. Their defense, led by do-it-all linebacker Evan Thompson, is excellent, and they've won four of their last six games by at least 23 points. Still, the road is rough for anyone outside of the top 3-4. 7. Montana: 3%. The Grizzlies have made more playoff appearances than any team in FCS history. They might not have the offense to win four straight games, but they've won their last five by an average of 20 points. Bobby Hauck's squad is in excellent form. 6. Montana State: 5%. The Bobcats have a lower seed than their in-state rivals, but an easier (in theory) second-round draw gives them slightly better odds overall. They peaked at second in SP+ in October thanks to a killer defense that, led by explosive end Daniel Hardy, can still deliver the goods. 5. Villanova: 7%. The Wildcats have one of the deepest skill corps in FCS and an all-or-nothing gunslinger in Daniel Smith behind center. Their ceiling is high, as evidenced by the win over JMU, and their floor is a bit low, as evidenced by an ultra-glitchy home loss to William & Mary. They are the wild card of the field. The front-runners 4. Sam Houston: 10%. K.C. Keeler's Bearkats are 20-0 in the 2021 calendar year, and after last spring's blessed playoff run -- four games won by a combined 15 points -- they could be positioned to do it again. They still have quarterback Eric Schmid, running back Ramon Jefferson and receiver/return man Jequez Ezzard after all. 3. James Madison: 15%. Since losing to Villanova, the Dukes have won six games -- including two against ranked foes -- by an average of 38-13, and the duo of defensive linemen Bryce Carter and Isaac Ukwu (combined: 31.5 TFLs, 15 sacks, five forced fumbles) is a havoc machine up front. They could immediately compete in the Sun Belt when they make the leap, but first comes a run at another national title. 2. South Dakota State: 17%. The Jackrabbits' commanding win over UC Davis moved them back to No. 2 in SP+ and potentially made this a four-team title race. Three losses to playoff teams by a total of 13 points dropped them from a seeded position, but wins over North Dakota State (by a little) and Colorado State (by a lot) are a reminder of their immense ceiling. They'll likely need three road wins to reach the finals, but they're capable. 1. North Dakota State: 28%. The 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 national champions lost at South Dakota State but beat 10 other opponents by an average of 37-11. The Bison are positioned for yet another run, but there's a question mark at quarterback. Quincy Patterson has been injured, and while backup Cam Miller has filled in beautifully, the plan as Patterson returns to full health could make things awkward. Plus, the last time the Bison played second-round opponent Southern Illinois, last February, the Salukis blew their doors off. NDSU is the favorite, but hurdles quite obviously remain.
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