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It's a mix of normal and abnormal this season in college football's Football Championship Subdivision. The defending champion (North Dakota State) and runner-up (Montana State) earned top-four seeds in this year's playoffs, and maybe the second-most consistent program in FCS (South Dakota State) is No. 1. Everything feels right there. Everything else, however ... is different. James Madison is gone, choosing instead to be awesome in FBS. Jacksonville State is joining the Dukes in making the jump next year and was therefore booted from playoff eligibility. Aside from the three heavyweights above, only six other teams from last year's 24-team playoff field made it this season. And the national title favorite might be a team with zero all-time playoff wins. If you're a fan of the new and the different, this year's playoffs are for you. At least, they are until North Dakota State wins the whole damn thing again. The action gets started on Saturday. Here are the schedule and SP+ projections for the round of 24: • Elon at Furman (noon, ESPN+). SP+ projection: Elon 29.6, Furman 28.8. Winner faces No. 7 Incarnate Word. • Saint Francis (PA) at Delaware (2 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Delaware 34.6, SFU 25.8. Winner faces No. 1 South Dakota State. • Fordham at New Hampshire (2 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: UNH 31.1, Fordham 30.5. Winner faces No. 8 Holy Cross. • Davidson at Richmond (2 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Richmond 41.7, Davidson 19.5. Winner faces No. 2 Sacramento State. • North Dakota at Weber State (4 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Weber State 34.9, UND 22.7. Winner faces No. 4 Montana State. • Gardner-Webb at Eastern Kentucky (5 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: EKU 31.0, GWU 24.8. Winner faces No. 5 William & Mary. • Idaho at Southeastern Louisiana (7 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Idaho 32.3, SELA 31.5. Winner faces No. 6 Samford. • SE Missouri State at Montana (10 p.m., ESPN2). SP+ projection: Montana 34.5, SEMO 27.1. Winner faces No. 3 North Dakota State. Elon-Furman, Fordham-New Hampshire and Idaho-Southeastern Louisiana are all projected to be ridiculously close, and late on Saturday night Montana will get a nationally televised opportunity to justify its selection despite a 7-4 record and a late funk (all four losses came in the last six games). To get up to speed on the teams and names you need to know in the coming weeks, let's use my FCS SP+ rankings to rank the field from least likely to most likely to take home the crown.
24. Davidson (8-3)SP+ rank: 84th (52nd offense, 126th defense) Advancement odds: 0.4% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.0% to win the title Davidson earned the Pioneer League's automatic bid, and you know what you're getting from Scott Abell's Wildcats: rushing, rushing and rushing. They led FCS with 350 rushing yards per game -- five players ended up between 300 and 800 yards for the season -- and while they never have enough defense to do major playoff damage, they're always annoying to play.
23. North Dakota (7-4)SP+ rank: 44th (49th offense, 15th defense) Advancement odds: 4.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.04% to win the title The Fighting Hawks finished third in the Missouri Valley, which will typically get you into the playoffs, and they've got a canny defense led by end Ben McNaboe and corner C.J. Siegel. The offense lacks explosiveness, but it's balanced enough to find some matchup advantages. They're a tough but likely playoff out.
22. Gardner-Webb (6-5) SP+ rank: 46th (44th offense, 65th defense) Advancement odds: 6.7% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.1% to win the title Playoff debutants behind 33-year-old head coach Tre Lamb, the Runnin' Bulldogs nearly beat Coastal Carolina and Liberty this season. Their strength comes through the air: Receiver T.J. Luther is sixth in FCS in receiving yards (1,072), DE Ty French is third in sacks (11) and cornerback Raequan Ousley is third in passes defensed (18).
21. Saint Francis (9-2)SP+ rank: 31st (29th offense, 52nd defense) Advancement odds: 6.0% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.3% to win the title The numbers don't like the Red Flash's chances in their second ever playoff appearance, but they do offer a tantalizing combination of sturdy defense (310 yards allowed per game, ninth in FCS) and an offense that erupted for 46 points per game over their last four contests (all wins). QB Cole Doyle went 24-for-30 for 412 yards and five scores last week!
20. New Hampshire (8-3)SP+ rank: 38th (41st offense, 20th defense) Advancement odds: 13.8% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.3% to win the title After a slide in legendary head coach Sean McDonnell's final seasons in charge, UNH has charged back to the playoffs under former Wildcats QB Ricky Santos. Defense carried them for much of 2022 -- ends Dylan Ruiz and Josiah Silver are great -- but the offense averaged 38 points in three vital late-season wins.
19. Eastern Kentucky (7-4)SP+ rank: 34th (39th offense, 21st defense) Advancement odds: 16.2% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.7% to win the title What a fall it's been in Richmond, Kentucky. EKU head coach Walt Wells suffered a heart attack in late August, then returned a few weeks into the season to oversee a 5-2 finish and the Colonels' first playoff bid since 2014. With Parker McKinney slinging the ball around nonstop, they have a shot at their first playoff win since 1994, too.
18. Fordham (9-2)SP+ rank: 28th (16th offense, 112th defense) Advancement odds: 14.7% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.4% to win the title After reaching the playoffs with a high-flying passing attack for three straight years under Joe Moorhead (2013-15), Fordham returns ... with a high-flying passing attack! The Rams averaged 612 yards per game, 421 through the air (both tops in FCS). They have three of the top seven receiving yardage leaders in the country, led by Fotis Kokosioulis. (The less said about their defense, the better.)
17. Furman (9-2)SP+ rank: 32nd (35th offense, 27th defense) Advancement odds: 14.7% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.4% to win the title After nearly 30 years as an offensive line coach, Clay Hendrix has led his alma mater to three playoff bids in six years. The Paladins have lost only to Clemson and Samford, and they run well, pass efficiently when required and average seven TFLs and six passes defensed per game. A high-floor, if not incredibly high-ceiling team.
16. SE Missouri State (9-2)SP+ rank: 20th (22nd offense, 48th defense) Advancement odds: 10.9% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.6% to win the title The Redhawks are making their first playoff trip in three seasons thanks primarily to the incredible work of Geno Hess, their 5-foot-8, 222-pound running back. He rushed for 1,446 yards (7.8 per carry!) and scored an FCS-best 21 total touchdowns. Last week against Murray State: 26 carries, 317 yards, four touchdowns ... and one playoff bid.
15. Southeastern Louisiana (8-3)SP+ rank: 24th (13th offense, 103rd defense) Advancement odds: 16.6% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.7% to win the title When Southeastern Louisiana decided to bring back football in 2003, it hired Hal Mumme to do so. The spirit of Mumme still exists in Hammond, where the Lions continue to wing the ball around. This year is slightly different, though: They're doing it with two different QBs -- the pass-first Eli Sawyer and the run-heavy Cephus Johnson III.
14. Elon (8-3)SP+ rank: 21st (25th offense, 34th defense) Advancement odds: 18.9% to reach the quarterfinals, 0.8% to win the title The last time Elon won a playoff game, it was against Pittsburg State in the 1981 NAIA finals. If Tony Trisciani's balanced Phoenix end that drought Saturday, it will be because of well-traveled quarterback Matthew McKay, who began his career at NC State, started for Montana State for much of 2021, then moved to Elon.
13. Idaho (7-4)SP+ rank: 16th (23rd offense, sixth defense) Advancement odds: 21.1% to reach the quarterfinals, 1.6% to win the title Welcome back, Vandals! Idaho last played in the FCS playoffs in 1995 before moving to FBS for a couple of decades. The drop back down to FCS was a bumpy one, but first-year coach Jason Eck has the Vandals playing high-flying ball with receivers Hayden Hatten and Jermaine Jackson and maybe the best ball-hawking pass defense in the subdivision.
The 10 best teams that aren't in the field of 24Eleven of the 24 teams in the field earned automatic bids, and about eight to 10 of the 13 at-large bids were no-brainers. The playoff committee selected big-name Montana and Delaware programs with two of the last spots -- the Grizzlies and Blue Hens are both clearly good but had suffered four losses each and missed a ton of quality-win opportunities -- and followed the same strength-of-schedule logic to hand the last spot to North Dakota. There weren't any massive snubs, but as will always be the case, some solid teams missed out. Per SP+, here are the 10 best teams in FCS that won't be playing in the playoffs: 26. Sam Houston (5-4)
25. Harvard (6-4)
23. Yale (8-2)
22. Austin Peay (7-4) 18. Mercer (7-4)
17. Chattanooga (7-4)
13. UC Davis (6-5)
9. Princeton (8-2)
6. Jacksonville State (9-2)
5. Jackson State (11-0) Sam Houston and Jacksonville State were ineligible due to their impending FBS moves (SHSU wouldn't have made it anyway at 5-4), Ivy League teams don't participate (they should, but that's a different column for a different time), UC Davis' record was too poor despite plenty of quality moments and Jackson State's postseason will consist of the SWAC Championship in two weeks and, if the Tigers win as expected, the Celebration Bowl on Dec. 17. Along with 9-2 Florida A&M, then, the biggest snubs on the board were probably Chattanooga, Mercer and Austin Peay. Montana and Delaware both matched those teams' 7-4 records and ranked higher in SP+, but at 44th, North Dakota was a questionable selection. We'll see if the Fighting Hawks can justify their inclusion with a solid effort at Weber State. Back to the list.
12. Richmond (8-3)SP+ rank: 19th (21st offense, 24th defense) Advancement odds: 21.6% to reach the quarterfinals, 1.9% to win the title Reece Udinski's last 20 months or so: • Drive VMI to a thrilling unbeaten start in FCS' spring 2021 season before suffering a season-ending knee injury • Transfer to Maryland in the fall and throw 15 passes while backing up Taulia Tagovailoa • Transfer to Richmond and throw for 2,875 yards and 22 scores to lead the Spiders to the playoffs. A modern QB's story, and one that could keep going for a few more games.
11. Delaware (7-4)SP+ rank: 15th (17th offense, 14th defense) Advancement odds: 22.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 2.3% to win the title The Blue Hens eked out an at-large bid, but there's no doubting their quality. They're one of only five playoff teams with top-20 SP+ rankings on both offense and defense, and they've got stars on both sides: Nolan Henderson will pass 3,000 passing yards Saturday, and linebacker Johnny Buchanan is second in the nation in tackles. He had 23 against Navy!
10. Weber State (9-2)SP+ rank: 10th (14th offense, 18th defense) Advancement odds: 27.0% to reach the quarterfinals, 3.1% to win the title Jay Hill's Wildcats are rolling again. They obliterated Utah State in September and are unbeaten against teams outside the FCS top four. They allow fewer than 300 yards per game, and when you DO score, Abraham Williams will probably take your kickoff back for a touchdown -- he's got four return scores this year.
9. Montana (7-4)SP+ rank: eighth (15th offense, fourth defense) Advancement odds: 27.2% to reach the quarterfinals, 3.2% to win the title The Grizzlies lost by seven to Idaho, three to Weber State and in overtime (without injured starting QB Lucas Johnson) to Sacramento State. Their offense averages 37 points per game, and their defense, led by linebacker Patrick O'Connell, is a TFLs machine. Now that they've made the field of 24, they could do damage.
8. Incarnate Word (10-1)SP+ rank: 14th (first offense, 118th defense) Advancement odds: 66.4% to reach the quarterfinals, 5.3% to win the title Lindsey Scott Jr. thinks Reece Udinski's career seems stable. The former LSU, East Mississippi Community College, Missouri and Nicholls State quarterback has thrown for 3,791 yards and 50 touchdowns (with seven more on the ground) in head coach G.J. Kinne's wide open attack. The Cardinals are track meet aficionados and, therefore, a must-see team.
7. Samford (10-1)SP+ rank: 12th (eighth offense, 60th defense) Advancement odds: 62.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 5.9% to win the title It's been 31 years since Samford won a playoff game, but the school that produced Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher has surged in Chris Hatcher's eighth season. The Bulldogs have lost only to Georgia, Michael Hiers is completing 77% of his (mostly short) passes, and Fred Flavors might be the stickiest cornerback in FCS.
6. Holy Cross (11-0) SP+ rank: 11th (seventh offense, 76th defense) Advancement odds: 71.5% to reach the quarterfinals, 6.4% to win the title The Crusaders are making their fourth straight playoff appearance under the incredible Bob Chesney. They beat Buffalo with a Hail Mary and walloped Yale on the way to an unbeaten regular season, they protect the ball (but still make big plays), and the defense, as personified by corner Devin Haskins, is big and aggressive.
5. William & Mary (10-1)SP+ rank: seventh (ninth offense, 32nd defense) Advancement odds: 77.1% to reach the quarterfinals, 8.6% to win the title Mike London has built the physical team of his dreams in Williamsburg. His Tribe pushed Charlotte around in an early blowout win, a trio of awesome backs (led by Bronson Yoder) has rushed for 2,216 yards and 26 TDs, and linebacker John Pius is fifth nationally in TFLs (19) and third in sacks (11.5).
4. North Dakota State (9-2)SP+ rank: fourth (fifth offense, 53rd defense) Advancement odds: 62.0% to reach the quarterfinals, 9.0% to win the title You don't make a lot of money betting against North Dakota State. The Bison have won nine of the last 11 national titles, after all, and they've grown accustomed to playing themselves into form over the course of a season. But they spent a lot of time in third gear this season, losing twice and winning three conference games by five or fewer points. Maybe last week's blowout of North Dakota is a sign that things are clicking into place, but this has not been the most dominant Bison team to date. We'll see if that matters once the playoffs start.
3. Montana State (10-1)SP+ rank: third (10th offense, first defense) Advancement odds: 68.7% to reach the quarterfinals, 12.7% to win the title Montana State won last week's Brawl of the Wild against Montana, which makes sense -- the Bobcats are the best brawlers in FCS. Quarterback Tommy Mellott runs all the time, RBs Elijah Elliott and Lane Sumner average over six yards per carry, and it seems like they've got 17 linebackers on the field at all times. They haven't lost to an FCS team since last year's national title game, and they've got a solid shot at returning.
2. South Dakota State (10-1)SP+ rank: second (second offense, 64th defense) Advancement odds: 71.7% to reach the quarterfinals, 13.9% to win the title Okay, is this John Stiegelmeier's year? His Jackrabbits have lost only to Iowa (and barely) this season, and they've made at least the semifinals in four of the last five seasons. They won at both North Dakota State and North Dakota, and they have so many veteran pieces from recent playoff runs -- QB Mark Gronowski, RB Isaiah Davis, WRs Jaxon and Jadon Janke, OL Mason McCormick and LB Adam Bock. Stiegelmeier has won 194 games in 26 seasons in Brookings. A title is all he's missing. This is as good an opportunity as any.
1. Sacramento State (11-0)SP+ rank: first (third offense, second defense) Advancement odds: 78.0% to reach the quarterfinals, 22.2% to win the title When Troy Taylor took over at Sac State in 2019, the Hornets had won 13 games over the last four seasons. Five straight coaches had left with losing records. They hadn't won a playoff game since the 1988 D-II quarterfinals. Taylor ignited things immediately. He's 29-7 overall and an incredible 23-1 in the Big Sky. This year they have a 1,200-yard rusher (Cameron Skattebo), plus a run-first backup QB who's scored 19 touchdowns and a defense led by two of the most dynamic players in the country: linebacker Armon Bailey and nickel back Marte Mapu. They stomped Colorado State, and they've beaten four ranked opponents in the last five weeks. All they lack is a history of playoff success. They have absolutely none of that. It's the biggest thing standing in the way of the Hornets making a hell of a usurper title run. SP+ loves them. They haven't lost in nearly a calendar year. Now they have get by the likes of NDSU and SDSU. Let's see if they can do it.
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